Why you shouldn't open ruble deposits even after raising rates . Experts explained the increase in deposit rates by banks

Russian investors can finally tune in to a positive mood. Rates on deposits in rubles have been growing for the third month in a row, which means that we can talk about a trend. But how profitable is this trend?

Big Players Play Big

AT recent times more and more banks are increasing the yield on ruble deposits and introducing new deposits. Over the past week alone (October 15-21), at least 14 credit institutions raised rates, and six more banks introduced new deposits into their lines. In general, since the beginning of October, about 40 banks on their deposits. Some managed to revise the line up more than once.

The largest banks are increasing deposit rates on a par with regional ones.

The best yield on the "Maximum" deposit VTB 6.87% per annum when opening at a bank branch and 7.06% per annum when opening through an Internet bank.

Rosselkhozbank rates on a number of deposits. The interest rate on the “Profitable” deposit at the end of the term is now close to 8% per annum.

Alpha Banto three deposits at once. For example, a deposit can now be placed at 6.6% per annum.

AB "Russia" raised the maximum rates on deposits and - up to 6.7% and 6.3% per annum, respectively.

On average, by 0.5 p.p. for several deposits at once and SMP Bank.

It is noteworthy that banks also raise rates on seasonal offers, which, as a rule, in themselves have a higher profitability than the main product line of credit institutions. For example, Post Bank recently increased the maximum yield on deposits to 7.5% per annum.

Also increased the rates on deposits for individuals UniCredit Bank, FC Otkritie, Binbank, Promsvyazbank, Russian Standard and others.

How rates are rising

In the market, in principle, there has been a forgotten trend. Since the third decade of August 2018, the maximum interest rate in ruble deposits, the top 10 deposit banks are gradually but steadily growing. Thus, since mid-August, it has increased from 6.32% to 6.8% per annum. And this is undoubtedly progress for the current situation in the banking field.

To date, the profitability of fixed-term ruble deposits reaches , points out the head of analytics of deposits and deposits of Banki.ru Yulia Proshina.

"Traditionally, the most high stakes set on savings deposits, without the possibility of replenishment and partial withdrawal,” she clarifies.

The rates are increasing not only for ruble, but also for currency deposits.

According to Proshina, recently the rates on deposits in US dollars have increased in Zenit Bank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, UniCredit Bank, Credit Europe Bank.

“The rates on deposits in euros are still at their minimum levels, but there has been a positive trend here as well. In October, VTB increased the yield on euro deposits by an average of 0.2-0.5 percentage points (up to 0.95% per annum), and Rosselkhozbank resumed accepting deposits in euro and set the yield on them to 1.2% per annum,” comments Proshina.

Apparently, the trend to increase profitability "responded" in the hearts of Russians. According to Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev, the regulator began to increase deposits in the first half of October 2018. For example, from October 1 to October 15, deposits individuals under current credit organizations excluding the impact of currency revaluation increased by 1.2%. In August and September, there was a net outflow of funds from deposits in the banking system.

Will keep growing

Proshina predicts that at least the rates on ruble deposits have not reached their maximum profitability and may jump another 0.25 p.p. before the end of the year.

Experts agree with this opinion.

“With the onset of the new season, the trend has changed in the bank deposit market - the largest Russian banks are actively raising the rates on deposits both in rubles and in dollars. This is due to several factors. First, in September the Bank of Russia raised the key rate from 7.25% to 7.5% per annum, which banks are guided by when setting deposit pricing principles. The second is the growth of inflation, which, according to expert estimates, may rise to 4% per annum by the end of this year, which is due to the weakening of the ruble and the planned increase in VAT from 2019,” says Vice President, Director for Retail Business Development Mail Bank Grigory Babajanyan.

"The rates on foreign currency deposits will be affected by the sanctions."

Grigory Babajanyan, Vice President of Post Bank

Recently, banks have revised the tariff policy on deposits, in connection with which Babadzhanyan expects that the growth dynamics of rates both on deposits in rubles and in foreign currency will continue. “But if the dynamics of rates on ruble deposits will depend on inflationary risks and the decision of the Bank of Russia to change the key rate, then the rates on foreign currency deposits will be affected by sanctions,” he clarifies.

They do not exclude a further increase in deposit rates in the Moscow Credit Bank(ICB).

“This is not excluded, since in general the banking market has seen a slight increase in rates on deposits both in rubles and in foreign currency,” commented Andrey Khramov, a specialist in the deposit and commission products development department of the MCB. - An increase in rates always encourages citizens to more actively place funds in deposits, as customers often look at the interest rate first of all. At the end of the year, the savings activity of the population traditionally increases.”

Whether the upward trend in rates will become long-term will largely depend on specific geopolitical decisions in October-November, says Lyudmila Kozhekina, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA.

“The increase in deposit rates is due both to the increase in the key rate in September and the desire of banks to accumulate liquidity against the backdrop of an aggravation of the geopolitical situation, including the risks of limiting transactions in dollars to Russian state-owned banks. Therefore, this trend is more clearly observed in state-owned banks. We expect that in the absence of significant fluctuations in the key rate by the end of the year, the rates for both ruble and foreign currency deposits will increase within 0.5-1 percentage points,” says Kozhekina.

"Now the contribution investment instrument it can not be".

Natalya Smirnova, General Director of Emkvart. Personal Advisor»

She also adds that before the end of 2018, it may be necessary to raise the key rate with a significant negative impact of new US sanctions on the ruble exchange rate.

“If the toughest package of sanctions (including restrictions on conducting transactions in dollars for state-owned banks) is not adopted, then the increase in the key rate will probably not exceed 0.5 percentage points,” Kozhekina predicts.

General Director of the consulting company "Emkvarta. Personal Advisor” Natalia Smirnova draws attention to the fact that a possible increase in deposit rates largely depends on the policy of the Central Bank, and it, in turn, depends on the stability of the situation in the country and in the world (especially taking into account sanctions), on the exchange rate (especially in critical situations of panic) and the dynamics of inflation in Russia.

“If the sanctions policy towards the Russian Federation continues to develop, the ruble exchange rate will continue to be unstable, inflation will grow, the Central Bank may continue to raise the key rate, after which deposit rates will also rise. And if not, then the situation will remain unchanged or even rates will decrease, continuing the dynamics recent years, - says Smirnova. “I think we will see which scenario we go before the end of 2018.”

At the same time, Smirnova argues that only those who do not know others can consider a contribution as a way of investment. financial instruments. “A deposit, if we do not take into account critical situations in the economy (as at the end of 2014), can never give a return higher than inflation, and therefore, it cannot be an investment instrument,” she concludes.

Even in a difficult economic situation in 2020, there is an opportunity to invest money in such a way as to earn. One of the ways is to arrange a profitable deposit for individuals. But which of the most reliable banks in Russia today has the highest interest on deposits? The website agency experts analyzed the proposals of the largest banks in the country, compiling a review of deposits in rubles with favorable interest rates.

Deposits of individuals - a traditional way of investing money

There are many ways to invest money to earn passive income. You can buy a currency and wait for it to rise in price, you can earn money on Forex, invest in a PAMM account, try to earn income by trading binary options and much more.

All these ways of making money bring fairly high profits, but they are also associated with a certain risk. Bank deposits individuals, and today remain the most reliable and traditional way investment savings in Russia.

Choosing the most profitable deposit: what to look for

When choosing a bank to entrust money to, depositors, as a rule, pay attention to at least two parameters:

• - the size of the interest rate, which allows you to choose a deposit with the maximum income;
• - reliability of the bank, which allows you not to worry about the safety of savings even during a banking crisis.

It can be quite difficult to combine a high interest rate and sufficient bank reliability. Analysts of the agency website tried to do this by examining the conditions for deposits in Russian rubles for individuals in reliable banks.

What deposits in reliable Russian banks are the most profitable today

Each bank has its own line of profitable deposits for individuals with unique conditions.

In order to somehow bring the parameters of deposits in different banks “to a common denominator”, we tried to find out what the highest interest rates in rubles are offered to those who intend to open a deposit today, in 2020.

For the purity of the experiment, we compared the rates in largest banks Russia on deposits for a period of 12 months, since this is the most popular investment period. 1 million rubles was taken as the estimated amount. And they also tried to dismiss the so-called investment or complex proposals with the obligatory investment of money, insurance, mutual funds or shares. As a result, the following list was obtained (check the exact conditions and interest rates on deposits with banks).

Most profitable deposits in reliable Russian banks from the top 10

Credit Bank of Moscow

MEGA Online deposit

Replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Without capitalization / Interest at the end of the term

Bank FK Otkritie

Deposit "Reliable"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Accrual of interest at the end of the term.

Promsvyazbank

Deposit "My income"

No replenishment / No partial withdrawal / No capitalization / Interest at the end of the term.

Savings account deposit

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Interest accrual monthly.

Post-bank

Deposit "Capital"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Interest monthly

Sberbank of Russia

Contribution "Save"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / With capitalization / Calculation of interest monthly. Banks of Moscow >>

The main types of deposits of individuals

Today, Moscow banks offer a large number of various kinds profitable deposits for individuals. But all of them can be divided into several groups:

✓ term deposits with the highest interest. By opening such a deposit, you give the bank your money for a certain period (3-6 months, 1 year or 3 years), and at this time you cannot take it back without losing interest or replenish your account.

✓ replenished deposits of individuals. By opening such a deposit, the depositor can save money by replenishing the account, and at the same time interest increases. However, it is impossible to withdraw funds from the account and not lose profitability.

✓ deposits with partial withdrawal of funds without loss of interest. Such deposits usually have the lowest interest rates. But they make it possible to withdraw part of the funds up to a pre-negotiated minimum balance, on the amount of which interest will be charged.

Of course, in any unforeseen situation, if you need money ahead of time the end of the deposit, you can always get them, but it will be a pity for the lost profit. So, when you are going to make a deposit in a bank, it is better to decide in advance when you will withdraw money so as not to lose income.

For the first time in the last four years, the Central Bank raised the refinancing rate, the key rate. It rose by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5% per annum.

An increase in the key rate will help maintain positive real interest rates on deposits, which will support the attractiveness of savings and balanced consumption growth, the Central Bank said in an official statement published on September 14.

The refinancing rate is the rate at which loans are issued. commercial banks. At the same time it maximum bet, according to which the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is ready to accept deposits from banks cash. The rest of the rates on the operations of the Central Bank are tied to the key one, and the rates that banks set when issuing loans to the population and accepting deposits from it also depend on it.

Monthly, the Central Bank publishes weighted average rates on deposits and loans to individuals. Comparison of deposit rates is shown in the chart below.

As of July 2018, this is the latest Central Bank data, with a refinancing rate of 7.25%, money could be deposited in banks on a ruble deposit at an average of 5.7% per annum if you made a deposit for more than a year, and at 5% per annum, if the contribution was made for less than one year. Now, after the decision of the Central Bank, the rate has returned to the February-March level of 7.5%. At that time, the rates were 6.4% and 5.4% for deposits over a year and less than a year, respectively.

Some banks raised deposit rates even before the official announcement from the Central Bank. According to the Central Bank, already in the first ten days of September, the top 10 largest Russian banks increased the rate by 0.24 percentage points to 6.56%, thereby even exceeding the March levels. largest bank countries, Sberbank raised the rates of basic deposits in rubles by 0.1-0.4 percentage points at once. At the same time, the bank introduced a seasonal deposit with record rates for it - 6.5-6.7%.

Experts noted that in this way banks insured against the outflow of depositors' money, as well as from the overflow of ruble savings into dollar ones. The decision of the Central Bank to raise the rate, as well as the risks of sanctions from the US, will probably also move rates up in the coming months.

As for loans, rates are expected to rise here as well. The weighted average rate on loans for a period of more than a year in July was 12.9%, for a period of less than a year 17.1%. In February-March, when the rate was 7.5%, long-term loans were more expensive by 0.5 percentage points, and short-term loans by 0.3% per annum.

As in the case of deposits, banks have already prepared to raise rates without waiting for the decision of the regulator. In particular, the head of Sberbank German Gref spoke about this. “While we are looking, rates have gone up very much, there is such a danger,” Gref said, answering the question whether the bank plans to raise mortgage rates and consumer loans against the backdrop of the current market situation. On September 11, 2018, Sberbank announced that it had terminated the program to reduce rates on its mortgage loans. In addition, mortgage refinancing for its customers has been suspended. Now borrowers financial organization will be forced to apply for a service to other banks, or will continue to repay the loan on previous payments. By the way, Sberbank has kept the refinancing program for clients of third-party creditors.

For the first time since October 2017, the average maximum rate on deposits of the largest Russian banks showed an increase, and a very significant one at that. Why did this happen, understood Banki.ru.

Growth you didn't expect

The average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks in rubles for the second ten days of June was 6.45% against the minimum for the entire history of the Central Bank's observations of 6.05% for the first ten days. This is evidenced by the data published by the Bank of Russia on Monday. Compared to the beginning of June, the rate increased by 0.4 percentage points at once. This is the first increase since October 2017.

At the peak of 15.635%, the maximum rate of the top 10 banks on ruble deposits was at the end of December 2014 - after a sharp increase by the Central Bank of the key rate (immediately by 6.5 percentage points - up to 17% per annum) to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market .

The top ten banks with the largest volume of ruble deposits of the population include Sovcombank, VTB, Raiffeisenbank, Gazprombank, Binbank, Alfa-Bank, FC Otkritie Bank, Promsvyazbank and Rosselkhozbank.

Football raises the stakes

The temporary increase in the average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks, most likely, was affected by the seasonal deposit of Sberbank "Pobeday" with a rate of 6% per annum, says Yulia Proshina, head of analytics for deposits and deposits at Banki.ru. At the same time, the credit institution emphasized that in honor of the victory of the Russian national football team, the “Win” deposit was extended until July 8. In May, Sberbank became the funds of individuals, losing 58 billion rubles.

In addition, Rosselkhozbank introduced an insurance deposit "Reliable Future" with rates of 7.1-7.3%.

Sberbank explained the increase in the maximum rate by the fact that it is important for credit institutions to raise new money to compensate for seasonal outflows. The press service also noted that already in August, such activities cease until the end of the year.

Experts believe that there are multidirectional trends in the deposit market.

“The vectors are multidirectional, some banks raise rates, others lower them. The increase in rates is associated, on the one hand, with the tightening of the rhetoric of the Bank of Russia regarding monetary policy (MP) at the last meeting of the Board of Directors and the decision to keep the key rate at the current level of 7.25%. And also with the growth of OFZ yields: now the yield of ten-year issues of these securities is 7.7-7.8% per annum. For the first time in the last three years, a positive carry appeared on the OFZ market: you can take REPO at 7.1% and invest in OFZ at current yields or use it to fund even more low rates deposits. On the other hand, for the duration of the football championship, many banks had deposits with improved conditions,” explains Konstantin Kochergin, head of the financial markets operations department at Vostochny Bank.

More loans, more expensive deposits

Irina Grigoryeva, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko-Bank, believes that the increase in rates can be explained by attempts to revive the deposit market, which in 2018 does not show significant growth. “At the same time, we must not forget that the largest players have rates on deposits that are significantly lower than the market and an increase of 0.45% still does not bring them closer to the level of rates of active players. This increase does not indicate a lack of liquidity in the market. Major Players enliven the standard summer lull with seasonal offers. New savings among the population are not actively growing. Banks open the fight for the current depositor,” says Grigorieva.

It is possible that the June increase in deposit rates is associated with a noticeable revival in the consumer lending market, suggests Alexander Taraskin, financial analyst at BCS Premier. “Banks allocate funds attracted to deposits for lending. Given the trend towards an increase in demand for loan products from individuals in the second quarter of 2018, banks are trying not to miss the opportunity to increase both loan and deposit portfolios,” the expert suggested.

Due to the fact that banks constantly lowered rates, the population began to lose interest in deposits, experts point out.

“With the exception of Sberbank, a number of other banks from the top 10, on the contrary, have recently lowered rates (the same Sovcombank). As for the decline in citizens' interest in deposits, the statistics of the Central Bank in May recorded a decrease in the total volume of deposits. That is, now even the interest capitalized on deposits does not keep this indicator from reducing. Although so far, according to the results of the first five months of this year, the dynamics are positive and, probably, will remain so according to the results of the whole year. But the total growth in household deposits in banks this year is likely to be lower than in previous years,” believes Dmitry Amirov, head of the deposit and commission products development department at Binbank.

Foreign currency deposits are more likely to rise in price than ruble deposits

All interviewed representatives financial market drew attention to the fact that there is a tendency to increase rates on foreign currency deposits. “At the moment, the market is seeing an increase in rates on deposits in dollars,” says Yulia Proshina. “We see no reason to further increase rates on ruble deposits, but growth on foreign currency deposits is quite likely, as the cost of foreign currency liquidity has increased, while deposit rates have remained unchanged,” notes Konstantin Kochergin.

Low rates on ruble deposits make current depositors interested in alternative instruments for investing funds. “The deposit remains one of the most popular instruments for investing funds, since even risk-averse investors usually keep part of their portfolio in the most liquid and guaranteed instruments - deposits. At the same time, with the general decrease in deposit rates, which we have observed for quite a long time, the population has noticeably increased interest in alternative instruments for investing funds,” concludes Alexander Taraskin from BCS Premier.

With the onset of autumn, for the first time since 2014, large banks began to massively raise ruble deposit rates. This happened after Sberbank increased base rates by 0.1–0.4 percentage points (p.p.) and introduced a seasonal deposit for a month at a record interest rate of 6.5–6.7% per annum.

This week alone, nine banks out of the top 40 in terms of household deposits increased their return on deposits. Another four large banks increased rates in the last ten days of August.

How far will the rates rise?

However, you can not rush to open deposits in rubles. According to many analysts and bankers, the current growth of ruble deposit rates will continue, but the ruble exchange rate may still fall. On Thursday, the dollar added 1.18 rubles. up to 69.39 rubles, euro - 1.25 rubles. up to 80.64 rubles.

In the current economic conditions, the increase in deposit rates can be considered a new medium-term trend, believes Ekaterina Shchurikhina, a leading analyst for banking ratings at Expert RA: “Until the end of the year, if the Central Bank does not have reasons to sharply increase the key rate, we within 0.5–1 p.p.”

According to Evdokimova, the Central Bank may raise the key rate already this year, and deposit rates will follow. “The scale of the increase depends on the degree of weakening of the ruble,” she continues, “if the dollar rises to 75 rubles, then key rate can reach up to 8–8.5%.

Prerequisites have been formed in the banking market for the start of a new cycle of growth in deposit rates, which will continue until the end of the year, Dmitry Yurin, deputy chairman of the board of Zenit Bank, agrees: according to his forecast, by the end of the year, ruble rates will increase by an average of 1 percentage point, and currency - by 0.5 p.p.

It is most likely that within six months the growth of deposit yields will continue and the average maximum rate of deposits in the 10 largest banks in terms of the size of household deposits will come close to 7% per annum, analyst Valery Bezuglov predicts.

The general director of the management company Sputnik - Capital Management Alexander Losev, who believes that the current dollar exchange rate should correspond to interest rates 2-3 years ago, is also waiting for the continuation of growth in rates. According to him, bank deposit rates should be higher than OFZ yields (reached 9% on Thursday - Vedomosti), if only because banks have higher credit risks than the state.

The traditional surge in deposit rates can be expected by the New Year, Shchurikhina says: many banks are willing to offer seasonal or holiday deposits.

The regulator has a different opinion. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev at the International Banking Forum in Sochi warned that the trend of raising deposit rates would not be long-term.

Wait for the right bid

Losev advises citizens with free rubles to wait for more favorable deposit terms next year, but for now, buy short-term OFZs.

In addition, in the near future, the weakening of the ruble may well continue to 70–70.5 rubles. /$ and 81–81.5 rubles. / euro, predicts analyst "BCS Broker" Ivan Kopeikin. According to Andrei Lyushin, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko-Bank, on the horizon of a year or more, the euro looks preferable to the dollar, since the transition to raising the rate in the eurozone and the completion of the rate increase in the US may lead to an increase in the euro against the dollar.

Do not bet on the ruble

“Now the profitability of a single ruble instrument does not cover the currency risk that it carries,” says the adviser CEO on macroeconomics of the Otkritie Broker company Sergey Khestanov. - Therefore, it is better for a reasonable investor to wait out the period of geopolitical instability completely in currency instruments. It will be possible to seriously look at ruble deposits only when relations between Russia and the United States are at least stabilised. Since geopolitical risks are high and are likely to increase over the next 2-3 months, it is not too late to increase the share of foreign exchange instruments in personal savings, Lyushin agrees: “The potential for ruble appreciation is limited to the level of 64-65 rubles. /$, but devaluation - at least 70-72 rubles. in case of imposition of sanctions against large Russian companies, for example, one or two state-owned banks. If state borrowings are also subject to restrictions, the exchange rate may reach 80 rubles. /$".

Hestanov now proposes to transfer ruble savings into foreign currency in several tranches over a couple of weeks in order to slightly smooth out losses on the exchange rate, “or buy foreign currency every month for the amount you want to set aside.” Sanctions are expected to increase, and the ruble will continue to be under pressure, so it is best to keep ruble funds in savings accounts in order to buy more foreign currency, says AMarkets Lead Analyst