Bank deposit rates fell to new lows. What to invest in? Why are deposit rates going down?

Placing funds on long deposits is no longer profitable. Rates on ruble deposits for a year are in many cases even lower than on deposits for a shorter period - for six months or several months.

In the first ten days of August, the average maximum rate on deposits in Russian rubles in the ten largest credit institutions that attract the largest volume of deposits from individuals amounted to 7.43%, reported.

At the same time, if you look at the lines of deposits carefully, you can see the so-called "hill" - high rates for short money, and the longer the deposit, the lower the rate,

comments the director of the department for the development of products and services.

So, if you place 100 thousand rubles. in banks from the top 100, you can find offers at a rate of 9-9.15%. For six months, the same amount can be put even at 9.6-9.5% per annum. You can place this amount at a rate higher (9.85%) for a year only in one bank from the top 100. Basically, long-term offers from banks lose to deposits for six months.

If the same amount is placed in banks from the top 20, then for three months the best offer from banks is deposits at 9%, for six months - 9.5%. At the same time, there are several offers on the market for placing a deposit at a rate above 9% for half a year, and only two for a year.

According to Pavel Belyaev,

now banks are ready to offer high rates on short-term deposits, hoping for growth in lending in the second half of the year.

“The seasonality of the growth in the issuance of loans shows that the second half of the year has an increase in relation to the first half of the year. In 2015, banks issued cash loans in the second half of the year by 65% ​​more than in the first. In 2016, by 23%. Most likely, the situation will continue in 2017,” he predicts.

With historically low inflation of around 4%, lending institutions cannot afford to raise expensive long-term money, says the director of banking technology.

Experts are confident that the Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate this year and next. As a result of the reduction of the key rate this year, it has already dropped to 9% per annum. At the last meeting at the end of July, the Central Bank did not reduce it even more, fearing the weakening of the ruble. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank will be on September 15, and experts believe that at it the regulator will be able to safely make a decision to reduce the rate.

It is unprofitable for banks to offer high rates for long periods, because within six months the rate may go down again, the cost of loans will decrease, and it makes no sense for a bank with a stable financial model to raise funds at a high rate, says the director of the retail business development department.

“If banks form portfolios, the average rate for which exceeds the market yield of placement instruments, then the deposit portfolio will at least cease to generate income, and in the worst case, it will begin to generate losses. Against this background, however, the task of attracting depositors' funds in the conditions of historical lows in rates remains. Therefore, banks today offer the highest possible rate, taking into account the structure of assets and liabilities of each particular bank,” explains Oleg Galeev.

A deposit for six months is a good way to attract a new client, who then with a high degree of probability will extend his deposit for a longer period, explains the relatively high rates on medium-term deposits, the deputy chairman of the board of Loko-bank.

Now many banks present their seasonal promotional offers, including to attract new depositors. Traditionally, these deposits have terms of up to six months and higher rates than standard offerings, said Damien Leclerc, Head of Secured Customer Development and Nonlending Products.
In turn, depositors understand that rates will fall and seek to open longer deposits. “Customers are most interested in opening annual deposits - the term is not so long, and the rate is fixed for the whole year without changes,” sums up the deputy chairman of the board of Svyaz-bank.

Despite the fact that banks do not usually enter the market with attractive offers in autumn, now most credit institutions have prepared gifts for their customers. Since September, they have begun to gradually raise rates on deposits.

According to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, the average maximum interest rate on ruble deposits in ten Russian banks that attract the largest volume of deposits from individuals increased to 6.71% in the third decade of September 2018.

At the same time, if you look at the statistics, it is obvious that the rate has been growing for several weeks. Thus, in the second decade of the month the rate was at the level of 6.65%, in the first decade of September - 6.61%.

The ten leaders in terms of deposits are,,.

At the same time, according to monitoring on , there are offers on the market to place money with a rate above 7%. So, now at a rate of 7-8%, you can put money in the bank for both six months and a year.

Rates on foreign currency deposits also increased. Now on the market you can find rates on dollar deposits in the region of 2-3%. At the same time, the growth rate of foreign currency deposits is higher than that of ruble deposits.

According to the statistics of the Central Bank, the base rate of return (the arithmetic mean of the maximum interest rates on deposits in banks that attract the largest amount of funds from the population) of the most popular dollar deposits with a placement period of 181 days to one year was 1.88% in January, in July the indicator increased to 2.35%, in September rose to the level of 2.76% per annum.

Experts explain this growth by the fall of the ruble and panic among depositors. In particular, the Russians reacted very nervously to the statements of the head of VTB, who proposed to the government a plan to de-dollarize the economy.

In early September, he also announced a possible conversion of foreign currency deposits into ruble deposits in the event that the United States imposes a ban on Russian banks making settlements in dollars.

“In conditions of increased nervousness, the reassuring message “in the worst case, we will return it in rubles” can often be perceived as a harbinger of forced conversion, and according to an unknown exchange rate and as a result, instead of replenishment under the raised rates, there is a withdrawal”,

According to statistics, "free money" in the average household is now no more than 25-30 thousand rubles, he adds. Real incomes are falling due to rising taxes and an increase in regular obligatory payments, such as utility bills, taxes, insurance, etc.

According to Rosstat, in January-August, the real disposable income of the population (income adjusted for inflation and mandatory payments) grew by only 2.2% yoy, and in August they were in the red by 0.9%. For the past four years, revenues have been falling.

This also affects consumer behavior. Expenses are growing very moderately. Thus, the retail trade turnover grew by 2.7% in eight months.

In the latest issue of the informational and analytical commentary "Economy: Facts, Estimates, Comments" by the Central Bank, it is noted that moderate growth in consumer demand continued in August, with purchases of non-food products growing most noticeably.

“The significant increase in purchases of non-food products is largely due to the increase in inflationary expectations of the population in connection with the weakening of the ruble and the upcoming increase in VAT,” the Central Bank believes.

According to a survey by LLC "inFOM", the population considers the current time as the most suitable for making large purchases.
These purchases are often made on credit, since citizens do not always have enough own funds.

According to the Central Bank data for eight months of this year, credit institutions issued loans to the population for 13.89 trillion rubles, which is 14% more than a year earlier. At the same time, deposits of Russians in banks increased over the same period by 1.8% to 27.37 trillion rubles.

At the same time, if we take August separately, then over the last summer month, deposits decreased by 0.6%, although loans continued to grow by 2.4%.

Given the rise in prices after the VAT increase, some citizens will make purchases of durable goods at the end of this year, and not the next, as originally planned, commented earlier to Gazeta.Ru, Vice President of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers).

In the third decade of May, the maximum interest rates on ruble deposits in ten banks with the largest volume of individual deposits fell to 6.27%, reported. This is a new historical low: in early May, rates were 6.37%.

In 2017, the volume of retail deposits in Russian banks grew by only 7%, and in the first quarter of 2018 - by 8.7% year-on-year, and these figures are much lower than in 2011-2013, according to the macroeconomic review of the main Alfa-Bank economist Natalya Orlova. In addition, the savings rate of the population in banks has not increased and currently amounts to 4.2% of household income in 2016-2017. against 5.5% in 2012-2013 (See Figure 3). Growth in deposits is not as impressive as it should be under inflation targeting, Ms. Orlova points out.

At the same time, the level of dollarization of deposits remains high, and about 70% of the inflow of deposits is associated with the capitalization of interest, and the share of demand deposits is growing. This indicates that the population is distrustful of the scenario of further rate cuts, the economist said.

The Central Bank drew attention to the fact that if current deposit rates are not reduced (around 7%), then future loan income of banks will decrease, says an independent financial analyst. The current decrease in deposit rates is important for banks, as it reduces their costs. However, if interest rates on loans also fall, this will lead to a fall in the future income of banks, and the Central Bank urged them to be careful with lowering lending rates, the expert explains.

Due to lower rates, there is now a flow of funds from bank deposits to stock market instruments, but different investment products are not always a complete replacement for deposits. A deposit is the simplest tool: a person is used to having a clear income by the end of the deposit period.

Few instruments provide this opportunity, most notably bonds. However, this instrument has an issuer risk that people may not always properly estimate. Often they argue in terms of "the higher the yield, the better," but in the case of bonds, this is not always the case - the risk increases. The state guarantees the return of 1.4 million rubles. from the deposit, but with bonds there is no such guarantee, and in this case it is important that the consultant correctly talks about the risks, - said Mr. Vakhitov website.

Various structured products related to the preservation of capital will also look good, but most often they do not bring a guaranteed income, and again, a lot depends on the level of the consultant. Derivatives such as futures and options, Mr. Vakhitov would recommend last.

An individual investment account is convenient primarily as an access to stock market. Yes, he means tax deduction, but this amount has been deferred for three years. This tool is beneficial for the bank, because it will get a client who will bring a commission for three years. In the current situation, receiving income in three years is not suitable for every person, the analyst concludes.

January 2019

Since the beginning of 2018, there has been a rather impressive decrease in interest on deposits for all credit institutions operating on the territory of the Russian Federation. What are they made of and why are deposit rates increasing or decreasing - the answers to these questions are in today's publication.

How is the interest rate determined on a deposit?

The interest rate on deposits depends on a number of factors that determine what its current value will be. Interest on deposits fall or rise, formed under the influence of:

• the general economic situation in the state - inflationary processes, the state of the country's international debts are taken into account;
• stability and financial well-being of a particular bank where the deposit is located - the more reliable the company, the sooner the percentage offered to investors will increase;
• deposit options - the basic terms of the contract initially form this indicator;
• currencies - if the deposit is in rubles, the amount of dividends will be an order of magnitude larger than on capital invested in a bank in foreign currency.

And, finally, the main argument that forms the value considered in the article is the Central Bank's rate on deposits. It is determined by the main financial institution of the Russian Federation, and any changes in this indicator will inevitably affect a specific bank rate.

Why are deposit rates going down?

Bank deposit rates have fallen - why is this happening? First, it is important to understand that such a process is an economic norm. In 2019, there is a general and dynamic change in rates for a fall, and, according to experts, this trend will continue further. The domestic market is gradually coming back to normal. Accruals on long-term contracts become higher than on short-term ones. Companies no longer need short-term liquidity. Working on the decline, they automatically reduce the pace of investment, regulating financial flows and stimulating Russians to invest for longer periods of time.

The main reason for lowering the rate is a sufficient amount of cash against the background of a decrease in demand for consumer lending to the population. The popularity of obtaining multiple loans by one client is sharply declining. Thus, there is nowhere to allocate finances, and it is objectively not profitable to charge an increased interest on capital that, in fact, does not work. At the same time, short-term investments are practically not justified, and only 5-6% of potential bank depositors are able to give money for a long time.

The second circumstance that provokes a decrease in the indicator is a general drop in base rate Sberbank immediately in all directions. So did other major financial institutions. And the last reason, which provided low rates on deposits in the current period. This is a slight reduction in the Central Bank rate, which, according to analysts, will be reduced even more by 2019.

When will interest rates increase?

How realistic and predictable is the increase in interest rates on deposits? This question is of interest to all citizens who invest their savings in domestic banks. What to expect in the near future? And if growth is still possible, how and under the influence of what factors will this happen?

Analysts do not make optimistic forecasts on this account - no growth is expected in the next 12-15 months. The situation will begin to change if there is a shortage of cash capital in the Central Bank, and assets will fall. There will be a sense in additional incentives for investment, and the main lever for activating these processes is increased interest on deposits. Moreover, small non-state commercial companies will react most quickly, offering their customers not only more loyal conditions for investing a deposit, but also promising them an attractive reward for the opportunity to use money.

The only thing that those who trust large banks and expect their profits to grow can count on is to keep track of special offers. As a rule, they are launched by festive events and dates - then an increase in interest on deposits is most likely.

What to do as an investor - step by step instructions

Since bank clients are unable to change the situation in the country's economic market, right decision in the event of an unforeseen reduction in rates is the return of the deposit. This is done as follows:

• contact the bank personally;
• we submit a written application addressed to the head of the organization with the requirement to return the body of capital and the additional amount already accrued to it within the framework of the deposit agreement;
• we are waiting for five days - this is the time established by law for consideration of the petition;
• after the specified period, we again contact the bank - if the desired result is not followed, we require a written reason for the refusal;
• we go to the consumer protection department or law enforcement authorities (the inspection will conduct an inspection and, if the rights of the depositor have been violated, the financial company will be obliged to return the money).

Whether the rates on deposits will grow, does not depend on the depositor. However, it is quite possible to increase your financial profit even against the background of their decline, if you do not ignore the following advice from experts in the field of economics and banking and take into account the following points:

1. When choosing the type of deposit, we give preference to such programs where there is the possibility of replenishing capital at any stage of the contract, because the profit is calculated on the amount of funds invested in the company.
2. We try to capitalize the invested funds as often as possible. It increases the body of the initial amount, respectively, even with a reduced rate, the final earnings will be greater. It is good if this procedure is carried out monthly.
3. Terms of validity of the contract - an agreement concluded for more than one year (provided that it is not terminated at the request of the client ahead of schedule) will always give more benefits than short-term investments.
4. When choosing an investment currency, we give preference to the Russian ruble - the amount of basic charges for it will always be more than for the euro or the dollar.

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