Will mortgage interest rates fall? How can you lower your mortgage interest? The main options for reducing mortgage interest

Experts still do not believe that mortgages at 6-7% are possible in Russia

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Bankers and experts have been talking about the fact that mortgage rates will fall (by our standards) “below nowhere” for more than a month. Already, the percentage for credit housing is the lowest in the history of post-Soviet Russia. Is there anywhere else to get cheaper mortgage loans?

History of the fall

Back in late 2016, Sberbank reported that mortgage rates in Russia returned to pre-crisis levels.

“The market continues to recover, mortgage rates have returned to pre-crisis levels. In the case of issuing mortgages to young families, the rates are even lower - from 10.25%, ”Natalia Alymova, director of the department of retail non-transactional products of Sberbank, then drew attention.

Almost at the same time, Irina Aslanova, Deputy Chairman of the Board of DeltaCredit Bank, that the market may see the figure of 11% per annum as the minimum rate by the end of 2017.

It should be noted that it was precisely the decrease in interest rates that experts were trending in the mortgage market back in 2016. Thus, according to AHML calculations, the disbursement rates on mortgage loans at the end of 2016 amounted to 12-12.5%, and on average for the year - about 12.6% against 13.35% in 2015. Thus, the rates reached the level of 2014, the pre-crisis year. In December 2014, after the collapse of the ruble, the Central Bank had to sharply raise the key rate. As a result, the mortgage market collapsed in 2015.

At the same time, more and more experts spoke in favor of the fact that 2017 will “return” the mortgage market to a relatively prosperous 2014.

Experts expect mortgage market to return to 2014 results this year

In 2017, the mortgage lending market will return to the results of 2014, predicts Sergey Gordeiko, head of the analytical center Rusipoteka.

In mid-February 2017, the Ministry of Construction “could not stand it”: Deputy Minister of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities Nikita Stasishin, according to which mortgage rates may fall to a record 9.7-9.8% per annum in 2017, despite the completion of the government program to subsidize mortgages for primary housing market.

“Completion of the subsidy program will not be a reason for the growth of rates in the mortgage market. According to experts, if the key rate of the Bank of Russia is further reduced by the end of 2017, there will be a decrease in market rates on mortgage loans, perhaps the rate will reach single digits,” Stasishin said.

The head of Sberbank German Gref also said that in 2017 we should expect a further decrease in mortgage rates - to new historical lows. “In terms of mortgage today, we have historically the most low rates. This year, taking into account the fact that there are quite ambitious plans to reduce inflation, rates will fall, of course. Therefore, I think that this year we will reach the historical, most low levels mortgage rates,” Gref drew attention at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The head of the AHML analytical center, Mikhail Goldberg, did in the spring of 2017 that mortgage rates in Russia could drop to 7% by 2020. Prior to this, agency rates are below 10% in 2016.

In the wake of the popularity of the topic, the business ombudsman of the Russian Federation Boris Titov even issue mortgages for certain categories of citizens at a rate of 5%.

"Target" on mortgage

We can say that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev put an end to the "dispute" of opinions. In May this year, he indicated that the mortgage rate should be reduced to 6-7% per annum.

“Our joint task is to work on lowering the rate. We expect that in the face of a reduction in the key rate, mortgage financing and the mortgage loan rate will decrease commensurately,” Medvedev said at a meeting with Samara Governor Nikolai Merkushkin.

The prime minister said that Russia "should reach a credit rate of 6-7% throughout the country" because "macroeconomic conditions for this are generally ripe."

The Ministry of Construction immediately announced the statement of the Minister of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities of the Russian Federation Mikhail Men that the reduction of mortgage rates in the Russian Federation to 6-7% per annum is possible if the Bank of Russia decides to correspondingly reduce its key rate.

German Gref also forecast the prime minister, saying: “I see prospects for lower inflation and Central Bank. If this inflationary trend is maintained, I do not think that this prospect is not feasible in the next two or three years.

The forecast was supported by the head of VTB 24, Mikhail Zadornov, who said that mortgage rates at the level of 6-7% are possible, but with an inflation rate of about 2%. That is, a decrease in current figures by more than one and a half times (inflation in August year on year was 3.3%). At the same time, Zadornov added that he expects the mortgage rate to drop below 10% in December 2017 - January 2018.

Will the predictions come true

Since the summer of 2016, the average market mortgage rate has decreased by two percentage points - from 13% to 11% per annum. At the same time, the first cycle of decline by 1 percentage point occurred in eight months, and the second (also by 1 percentage point) - in four months. However, the next cycle of rate cuts should be expected no earlier than in a year. This opinion was expressed at the end of August 2017 by Andrey Osipov, Senior Vice President, Director of the Mortgage Business Department at VTB 24.

Expert: the next cycle of lowering mortgage rates will take about a year

Since the summer of 2016, the average market mortgage rate has decreased by 2 percentage points (from 13% to 11% per annum). At the same time, the first cycle of decline by 1 percentage point occurred in eight months, and the second (also by 1 percentage point) - in four months. However, the next cycle of rate cuts should be expected no earlier than a year later. This opinion was expressed by Andrey Osipov, Senior Vice President, Director of the Mortgage Business Department at VTB 24, during an online conference on Facebook.

According to Igor Zhigunov, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Housing Financing Bank (BZHF), the “average market” indicator of rate cuts in 2017 is achieved mainly due to lower rates for lending programs for new buildings and the secondary market of large federal players and for certain categories of borrowers.

“On the whole, the reduction of rates cannot be called “market-justified”, of course, - Zhigunov is sure. - Firstly, there are still no "long" and cheap money on the market as such. And those rate cuts that are taking place under a number of programs on the market, of course, stimulate other participants to somehow adapt to the competitive environment. Secondly, the risks in the lending system are not getting lower: real estate prices have been declining in recent years. And there is no trend for their sharp growth yet. Incomes of the population are still not growing. All that allows you to “increase” the availability of credit now is to lower the rate and increase the term of the loan. Yes, it is quite possible to expect some more downward correction of rates for a number of federal programs, but far from being due to market factors in the economy.”

The first deputy chairman of the board of BZHF Bank cites expert estimates, according to which, since last year, mortgage rates have fallen on average by two to three basis points, depending on the programs of banks. First of all, the reduction affected lending programs for "new buildings", where it is necessary to solve the problem of falling demand together with developers, Zhigunov points out.

Also, according to the banker, now the market has actively “revived” in terms of the demand of the population for the “replacement” of mortgage loans at a rate of 14-15% with a rate of 11-13% and for the “consolidation” of expensive consumer loans in the amount of several pieces per one “credit secured by housing. In this case, when refinancing, the rate is sharply reduced from 25-30% to 12-13%.

How to get rid of a mortgage

Mortgage borrowers rushed to banks with applications to refinance their loans. Most applications come from borrowers who took out a mortgage in 2012-2014. Banki.ru found out to whom refinancing would help reduce the burden on their personal budget.

Be that as it may, the experts interviewed by Banki.ru do not believe that in the foreseeable future mortgage rates can really be reduced to values ​​close to 6-7% per annum.

“I don’t believe mortgage rates will fall below 9% per annum”

Andrey Stepanenko, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board, Raiffeisenbank:

Low mortgage rates are entirely the merit of the Central Bank. For the first time in 20 years, the regulator made the market believe in inflation at 4%. And since the market believed it, it became 4%. This was achieved due to the fact that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation pursued a very consistent, clear policy on this issue, kept a high key rate until it “crushed” inflation. And continues to do so. In addition, he explained more than once or twice why and why he was pursuing such a policy. People understood how the Central Bank operates and believed in its forecasts.

I do not believe that mortgage rates will fall below 9% per annum. And I don't think it's possible in the near future. I think next year the rate will fall by a maximum of one percentage point. But the rate will not go below 10% in the next two years.

“The average mortgage rate will fall below 10% in both the primary and secondary markets”

Natalya Konyakhina, Director of Mortgage Lending Department at SMP Bank:

According to my forecasts, by the end of the year, the average mortgage rate on the market will drop below 10% on both the primary and secondary markets. As for the longer term, the dynamics of mortgage rates here will depend on the situation on the financial market and the economy as a whole.

“By the end of 2018, rates may reach the level of 9%”

Ivan Lyubimenko, Director of the Sales Department of Absolut Bank network divisions:

In my opinion, the average market value of mortgage rates by the end of 2017 will drop to 10-9.5%. By the end of 2018, rates may reach the level of 9%.

There is a fairly rough formula that the mortgage rate is equal to the value of the key rate, increased by three percentage points. To be able to further reduce the key rate, it is necessary that the situation in the economy remains stable, the situation with the manufacturing sector improves, inflation stabilizes at 4% or even falls below, inflation expectations decrease, and so on. If these necessary conditions exist, the Central Bank will continue to take steps to ease monetary policy.

However, I do not expect a significant reduction in the key rate in 2018. Sharp changes in the rate can also have a negative effect on the economy, including increasing volatility and inflation. Therefore, the reduction of the key rate by the regulator will not exceed one percentage point. Mortgage rates will drop by a comparable amount.

“With a stable inflation rate and current risks, by the end of 2018-2019, the mortgage rate may reach 8-9%”

Alexey Tartyshev, Head of Marketing and Analytics at DeltaCredit Mortgage Bank:

I predict the weighted average mortgage rate by the end of the year at the level of 9.25-9.75% per annum. By the end of 2018-2019, the average market mortgage rate may reach 8-9%. But this is at a stable level of inflation and current risks.

Rate cuts to continue in 2018

Oleg Korkin, Director of the Department of Non-Transactional Products and Centralized Sales of Vozrozhdenie Bank:

Based on the current rates of rate cuts, I assume that the average market mortgage rates by the end of the year will be in the range of 10-10.25% per annum. It can also be assumed that the reduction of rates in 2018 will continue with a slight slowdown in the current dynamics.

According to the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), in May 2017, housing loan rates fell to a historic low, by an average of 11.3%: 10.9% in the primary market, 11.5% in the secondary market. This trend continued in June: the leading banks lowered the cost of credit further, and AHML even overcame the bar of 10% and set a rate of 9.75% for a wide range of borrowers.

Forecasts for the future are bright. So, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin believes that in 2018 rates will fall to 8-9%, and CEO AHML Alexander Plutnik in two years expects rates at the level of 6-7%. In a conversation with AiF, market experts, however, specify that such indicators can be achieved only with a further reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank.

Thanks to lower rates, citizens began to take out mortgages more often: the number of loans issued, according to AHML, increased by 16% compared to last year. However, lower rates have not yet made this product a mass product. Mortgages are still expensive.

“My salary is 25 thousand rubles,” says seller from Arkhangelsk Yulia Kalinina. - In a bank with my income, they will give me no more than 1.6 million rubles. Another 320 thousand I have to add myself as a down payment. For this money, I can only buy one apartment on the outskirts and pay 18 thousand rubles for this “happiness”. monthly for 10 years. I have two children and my husband and I are divorced. So for now, you have to live with your parents.”

“The vast majority of Russian mortgage borrowers (80%) still take mortgage loans for relatively “modest” amounts - up to 3 million rubles,” confirms General Director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories Alexander Vikulin. “However, the share of large mortgage loans has grown over the year.”

No down payment?

“In recent years, mortgages have been available to 30% of citizens,” says Tatyana Polidi, Executive Director of the Institute for Urban Economics Foundation. — Thanks to lower rates and a slight drop in housing prices, 3-5% was added to this amount. Most Russians still cannot afford mortgage loans. After all, incomes have also declined. The main barrier to obtaining a mortgage loan remains a high down payment.”

By the way, a few weeks ago the media spoke loudly about the return of the mortgage without a down payment. Having studied the market, AiF made sure that the largest banks do not have such offers. And there is still a clear rule: the lower the contribution, the higher the rate. If some banks are ready to lend with a zero fee, their rate is noticeably higher than the average.

“With the help of mortgages alone, lowering rates, the problem of housing affordability cannot be solved,” continues Tatyana Polidi. — For example, in the USA the rate is 3-4%, but huge number people can't afford a mortgage. Therefore, non-market mechanisms for supporting people work there. They are needed in Russia too. For example, we do not have a market for legal commercial and social rental housing; citizens have practically no opportunity to unite in housing construction cooperatives to build a house. These and other ways to create affordable housing need to be developed.”

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In 2018, Russian banks will continue to actively issue housing loans, while the market growth rate will slow down, analysts of the Expert RA rating agency predict in the review “Regional Mortgage Lending Markets in 2017” (available from Izvestia). Mortgage interest rates will continue to decline, but not as fast as last year. Bankers interviewed by Izvestia believe that they can reach 7-8% by the end of the year. This is the task set by the President in his communication to the Federal Assembly.

Mortgage rates have been falling since March last year. According to Expert RA, in 2017 the weighted average rate dropped by 1.8 p.p. and amounted to 10.6%. According to Dom.rf, in March, the average mortgage rate in the top 15 largest banks in Russia is 9.43% when buying a home in the primary market and 9.5% in the secondary market.

Rates will continue to decline, but not so quickly, Expert RA predicts: over the year they will drop by another 1–1.5 percentage points. The banks polled by Izvestia also expect a decline. According to Gazprombank's forecast, by the end of the year, housing loan rates will reach 7-8%, Vozrozhdenie Bank predicts a decrease to 8.3-9%, and DeltaCredit - 8.5-9%. Ak Bars and VTB believe that the downward trend will continue, but they did not name specific benchmarks.

Relatively low rates were a driver of growth in the mortgage market last year: banks issued 1.1 million new loans for 2 trillion rubles - an increase of 37%. But the market still has growth potential: this year banks will be able to issue loans for the purchase of housing for another 2.4-2.5 trillion rubles, Expert RA predicts - this means an increase of 20-25%. By January 1, 2018, the total amount of mortgage debts of Russians reached 5.2 trillion rubles.

In 2018, the market will grow further, but the pace will not be as high, since a large base of mortgage loans has been accumulated. In addition, the rate of commissioning of new housing in a number of regions is low, and mortgages in the secondary market, as a rule, are not so interesting for banks, - Ivan Uklein, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA, explained.

Banks agree with this assessment: DeltaCredit and Gazprombank predict that loans will reach 2.5 trillion rubles, VTB - 2.4-2.5 trillion rubles, Rosevrobank - 2.4-2.6 trillion rubles, Svyaz-Bank - in the region of 2 trillion rubles. Bank Vozrozhdenie is very optimistic: according to Deputy Chairman of the Board Natalya Shabunina, the volume of housing loans may increase by 30-60%.

The mortgage market retains a huge potential, and we do not expect it to be oversaturated: penetration into the country's GDP does not exceed 6%, which is an order of magnitude less than in other countries, - said Evgeny Dyachkin, head of the mortgage lending department at VTB.

The mortgage lending market experienced rapid growth in 2017 - the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and the slowdown of inflation to a historic low led to a noticeable reduction in the loan interest. Stimulated the market and government programs for certain categories of citizens: large families and families of military personnel. The banks themselves offered lower rates and refinancing of loans taken from other banks at lower interest rates.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his message to the Federal Assembly, said that the mortgage rate should be reduced to 7%. If the Central Bank continues to reduce the key rate, banks will be able to afford a softer policy on housing loans. Mortgage is considered one of the most reliable types of credit - the level of delinquency is lower than for consumer loans, and in case of default, the bank can always sell the property.

Experts from the Yekaterinburg real estate market and bankers answered 66.RU's questions.

In 2017, the Central Bank reduced the key rate several times - by 2.25% in total. In the coming year, the Central Bank plans to reduce at least another 1% during the year - to the level of 6.8-7%. The actions of the regulator also affect the mortgage rate: last year they dropped to a record 10%, which was not even in the crisis of 2014-2015. Experts from the Yekaterinburg real estate market and bankers told 66.RU how the mortgage rate will behave in 2018, what will affect it and whether it is worth postponing the purchase of an apartment in anticipation of an even greater drop in interest.

What will be the mortgage rate?

Experts from the Ural Chamber of Real Estate note that the mortgage market continues to see a slow downward trend in rates. Most likely, this process will continue in 2018, if the key rate does not increase - and this is not foreseen. Analysts at VTB Capital believe that bank mortgage rates will decrease by an amount comparable to the reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank. According to forecasts - by 0.75 p.p. during a year.

UBRD notes that today mortgage rates on the market average 9.95% per annum, and there is a possibility that banks will lower the rate in the region of 0.25–0.5 percentage points in the coming months. mortgage in 2018 may be 9% per annum.

Victoria Khalina, Head of Sales at Greenwich Residential Real Estate:

The state plans to reduce the rate to 6%, and this is quite realistic in the future for several years. When the rate was 12.5%, no one believed in the 9% rate, and now it doesn't seem so small either. A larger reduction in the rate will lead to greater demand, therefore, it is beneficial for borrowers, builders, and banks. That is, it will revive the residential real estate sector as a whole. In 2018, the mortgage rate will definitely go down after the key one, but we should not expect a sharp drop. Also, apartments will not rise sharply in price. Now it is clear that the prices for new buildings have stopped falling, and it is expected that they will go up. Over the next year, growth can reach up to 5-6%.

Will there be state support in 2018 and in what form?

Will. Since January 1, 2018, a new program of state support for mortgage borrowers has already been launched, which provides for a reduction in the mortgage rate to 6% over three or five years. Families with a second or third child born from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022 can take advantage of the new conditions.

Sergey Kulpin, manager of the retail branch of VTB Bank in the Ural Federal District:

The grace period will be three years from the birth of the second child of the mortgage borrower, five years from the birth of the third child. At the same time, if from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022, the borrower has a third child while he receives a subsidy for the second under the same program, the subsidy period is extended by 5 years from the expiration date of the subsidy for the second. To apply for a loan, you need to provide the bank with the birth certificates of all children, as well as a standard package of documents for obtaining a mortgage. At the same time, the parents of a child born during the program period must be officially married.

Mortgages with state support are provided for the purchase of housing under construction and finished housing. The maximum loan amount in Yekaterinburg and Sverdlovsk region is 3 million rubles. Initial payment - not less than 20%.

At the same time, the program also applies to the refinancing of mortgage loans issued during the period of the program. The UPN notes that the new direction of state support will adjust demand in the direction of improving housing conditions. “It is also important that this program redistributes mortgage funds in favor of the new building market,” said Mikhail Khorkov, head of the UPN analytical department, in a conversation with a 66.RU journalist. - So far, the bulk of borrowed funds goes to secondary market».

Will banks change their requirements for borrowers?

VTB reported that no new requirements would be introduced. In addition to those needed to participate in the state support program. The UBRD noted that, rather, it is necessary to talk not about new requirements for borrowers, but about changing the parameters of the mortgage product itself.

Lyubov Toropitsyna, Head of Mortgage Lending Department, Ural Bank for Reconstruction and Development (UBRD):

In particular, we are talking about the requirements for the size of the down payment. In the first quarter of 2018, banks may increase the down payment to 20% due to the fact that the Central Bank has set higher risk ratios for mortgage loans with a small down payment.

What will happen to shared construction and will it be relevant?

From July 1, 2018, amendments to 214-FZ will be adopted, which will tighten the requirements for developers, which should make the area more transparent. Shared construction according to the plans of the government will be canceled only after three years - in 2021. It will be replaced by bank financing, and only the largest developers will be able to work on this model.

Meanwhile, VTB notes that they record a shift in the mortgage market towards ready-made housing. “If in 2015 the share of housing under construction in our transactions was almost 40%, in 2016 - 33%, then in 2017 - only 31.5%,” said Sergey Kulpin. “This is due to more flexible prices in the secondary market and the desire of an increasing number of families to move into a new apartment immediately after purchase.”

This was confirmed and Victoria Halina:"Greenwich - Residential Real Estate" does not sell apartments under construction, but only ready-made options in new buildings, and the demand for them is quite high. “In general, the situation on the real estate market is leveling off, the demand for apartments is improving, investors are returning. If there are no global changes like the crisis of 2014-2015, the industry will develop,” she said.

Take out a mortgage or wait?

All the experts interviewed by 66.RU said that now is the time to buy an apartment with a mortgage.

Victoria Halina:

It is not worth postponing the purchase of an apartment and expecting a rate cut for a few more years, because refinancing is being actively used. Therefore, if there is a desire and an opportunity to buy your home now, you need to do it.

Lyubov Toropitsyna:

If the client has formed a need for housing and he is looking at a mortgage, then there is no need to wait. Despite the fact that mortgage rates are falling, the purchasing power of the population is still declining: today we can afford to buy much less than, for example, three years ago.

Sergey Kulpin:

Now the market has an ideal balance of housing prices and mortgage rates. However, if rates are likely to fall further, it is difficult to give the same price forecast. Therefore, if a person has a real need to improve their living conditions, it is better to buy real estate now.

The question of when mortgages will become cheaper is important both for owners of mortgage loans and for potential borrowers. Today we state that the rates are going down.

Very soon, buying a home on credit will be affordable for 50% Russian families: by 2021, rates may be reduced to 7%.

Participants of the annual Mortgage Lending in Russia conference discussed how the mortgage lending market will change, on the one hand, and the rejection of equity construction, on the other hand.

“The Mortgage Law was adopted in 1998. In the first year, 150 mortgage certificates were issued in Russia. Mortgage was a little unlucky: in 1998 there was a crisis, and already in 1999 only 17 mortgage certificates were issued.

At first, the media wrote that mortgages were an idea for the rich. Still would! After all, the rate reached 35%, and loans were issued only in dollars.

The real mortgage boom happened in 2005, with the adoption of a new edition of the Housing Code. From that moment, the mortgage went up, and has grown to the point that today it has become the foundation for the development of the construction industry,” recalled discussion moderator, head of the "Real Estate" direction of the radio Bussines.FM Valeria Mozganova.

According to Head of the AHML Analytical Center Mikhail Goldberg, totally agree Last year mortgage portfolio has grown to 5 trillion. rubles - by 13% compared to 2016. With the help of banks, it was possible to attract from 1.3 to 1.5 trillion rubles of citizens' funds to the construction industry, the analyst noted.

Up to 70% of current borrowers, according to Goldberg, are families with children. More than half of them are over 30 years old. Almost 45% of all mortgage loans are loans using maternity capital.

According to AHML estimates, last year 1.1 million mortgage loans were issued to the population in the amount of about 2 trillion rubles. “There have never been such indicators. This is about 30% more in quantitative terms and almost 40% more in money terms than in 2016. Despite the fact that in 2016 the market was influenced by Government program subsidizing mortgage rates. In 2017, the program ceased to work, and the entire volume of issuance was provided solely by market factors, including an unprecedented decrease in mortgage rates,” the analyst noted.

He stressed that at the beginning of last year in the market segment the rates were at the level of 13.5%, but by the end of the year they fell to the level of 9.5%. Such a reduction in rates sharply reduced the payment on the loan - by almost 20%. “This not only increased the demand for mortgages, but improved the quality of the mortgage portfolio. People began to spend less money on servicing mortgages, it became easier for them to cope with the credit burden. Under such conditions, the probability that the borrower will not be able to pay the loan is sharply reduced,” Goldberg emphasized.

The share of overdue loans for more than three months is 2.3%. “The quality of the mortgage portfolio is about five times higher than for other non-mortgage loans,” he stressed.

Since the middle of last year, a refinancing program has appeared in the portfolio of all major banks. “So far, it does not have an overwhelming effect on the mortgage market. However, we know that the total mortgage portfolio is formed for an average rate of 12.5%. When the difference with current rates reaches 3%, you can be sure that this portfolio will be refinanced in the near future. The only question is how this will happen: banks will refinance each other's portfolios, or large banks will begin to change the conditions for loans on their balance sheets. Next year, rates will continue to decline, the total amount of issuance will grow, and will amount to at least 2.5 trillion. rubles,” he said.

According to the forecasts of Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Chairman of the Board of the Association of Banks of Russia, mortgage rates could drop to 7% . At the end of last year, inflation was below the target of 4%, which was set by the Central Bank.

Nabiullina's department has repeatedly stated that the difference between inflation and key rate should be 2.5%. “That is, even if inflation in 2018 grows compared to last year, and will no longer be 2.5%, but 3-4%, the key rate of the Central Bank may well be at the level of 6.5%. Accordingly, interest on loans, primarily housing loans, will decrease,” Aksakov explained.

By latest research AHML, 45% of Russian families want to improve their living conditions. In the next 5 years, 8 million citizens will be able to take out a mortgage, Goldberg noted.
The development of mortgages has become the main point of the government strategy for the development of the housing sector until 2025, said Maria Dormostuk, head of the department for implementing programs and priority projects to provide affordable housing at the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation.

According to the document, by 2025 mortgages should be available to 50% of Russian families. The number of housing loans should increase to 2 million annually, the volume of housing construction - from 80 to 120 million square meters per year, and the provision of housing for the population - from 25 to 30 square meters per person.

But, according to President of the Institute for Urban Economics Foundation Nadezhda Kosareva, it is unlikely that in reality everything will be as rosy as in the government's forecasts. According to the expert, today mortgages are growing solely due to lower interest rates, but not due to the growth in incomes of the population. Incomes of the population only for the first month over the past four years have stopped falling, and they are far from growth. And the likelihood that the key rate will be able to continue to hold positions, causes Kosareva big doubts.

In addition, even now the number of new equity participation agreements (DDU) is practically not growing. That is, people did not buy more housing. It's just that the housing that was bought yesterday for their own is now being taken for credit money. The mortgage market is growing, but this does not at all mean an increase in prosperity, Kosareva believes.

All the affordability of housing, achieved by lowering mortgage rates, is leveled as a result of rising housing prices, the president of the IUE notes. “In order for the price of housing not to grow, the supply must increase. But this is unlikely to happen in the conditions of refusal of shared construction. Quite the opposite," she says.

According to Mozganova, as long as the old rules apply in housing construction, developers will try to bring as many objects to the market as possible. The population will take loans to jump on the outgoing train. And then we are all waiting for a stupor and a protracted lull.

Very soon, sellers with mortgage apartments will enter the secondary market, and we will also have to do something with them, create understandable mechanisms for them.

Restrictions on shared construction will make adjustments to housing prices and the rates issued for the purchase of loans. Experts explain what changes to expect.

During 2017, borrowing rates on residential real estate decreased. However, the consumer, who would try to understand the prospects, was not surprisingly confused. Someone advised to immediately run to take a mortgage while it fell in price, others, on the contrary, urged not to rush, promising a further reduction in rates.

It was also unclear how the market would react to the “ban” on shared construction. Some publicists predicted that there would be no deceived equity holders, but apartments and loans for their purchase will now rise in price.

The decrease in mortgage rates in 2017 was due to the low rate of the Bank of Russia and low inflation, believes Finam analyst Timur Nigmatullin. As the expert told a Rosbalt correspondent, an increase in rates is unlikely in the coming years.

“Mortgage rates follow the indicative rates set by the Bank of Russia. If the Central Bank rate decreases, then this naturally leads to a decrease in the mortgage rate. But inflation also played a role. If inflation were high, and the Bank of Russia, though lowering the rate, then market mortgage rates would not follow the Central Bank rate, but would correlate with inflation. But now inflation is 2.5% per annum, and the market very easily follows the Central Bank rate: both in mortgage loans and in deposit rates for individuals", - said Timur Nigmatullin.

According to the analyst, the rumors about the upcoming rise in the cost of mortgages due to the abolition of shared construction are exaggerated. An obstacle to this is, among other things, the low incomes of the population.

“The law, which is sometimes called a ban on shared construction, in fact, is not such. There we are talking about the fact that within a three-year period, developers can decide that the money they receive when concluding agreements with buyers of real estate under construction not directly, but to a bank account that will already lend to the developer, for example, for project financing " - said Nigmatullin.

Nevertheless, the expert noted, the correction of the real estate market will be inevitable. “Now, if you buy real estate, for example, a one-room apartment, “on a foundation pit”, then by the end of construction it will cost 20-35% more. On the one hand, this is a gigantic yield, which is higher than the yield on many financial market instruments. On the other hand, such investment implies very high risks. When developers start selling real estate through banks, the risk will decrease, and banks, seeing the reduction in risk, will be able to issue loans at a lower interest rate. At the same time, the growth in demand due to lower mortgage rates is offset by a decrease in real incomes of the population, so the restrictions on the market will remain,” the analyst said.

According to Timur Nigmatullin's forecast, only small players who have discredited the primary real estate market and who are absolutely not trusted by banks will leave the development market: now they will no longer be able to raise funds.

The decrease in mortgage lending rates is in line with the general state of the Russian economy, believes Head of the Center for Economic Research IGSO Vasily Koltashov. A stable oil price and a stable ruble allowed the Central Bank to lower the rate.

“If oil prices go down and the ruble also goes down, then the Central Bank may return to its not very smart and inefficient policy of raising the rate. In this case, he could cause serious damage to the Russian economy by simply repeating the actions of 2014. Such a possibility exists. But so far, the decline in the price of a mortgage loan is due to an increase in the price of oil, with a global increase, albeit a small one, in business activity,” the expert specified.

Vasily Koltashov noted that cheaper mortgage can attract more people to this area. But even more people will want to take out a mortgage if the president's promises to subsidize loans of up to 6-7% to families with children are fulfilled.

“It must be taken into account that the crisis in the housing market has not passed. Prices are falling, and the state and the banks encouraged by it do not give developers better loans, do not stimulate the real estate market and the construction sector. These are disadvantageous trends for developers. However, a further reduction in the mortgage rate and subsidies could involve new segments of the population in lending, those who could not even think about buying an apartment, even a Shuvalov studio," the expert explained. He believes that such measures would be logical as part of the continuation of the policy of changing the Russian economic policy towards mercantilism.

Reducing mortgage rates this year occurred simultaneously with an increase in the number of loans issued, said Advisor to the Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR) Nikita Maslennikov. According to the expert, stabilization of these rates should be expected in the coming year. “Last year, the mortgage lending market was the undisputed leader in all banking retail. At the same time, an aggressive policy was pursued to reduce rates, the leader of which was, of course, Sberbank of the Russian Federation. I do not rule out that this happened in connection with some political tasks set by the country's leadership. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that mortgage rates should be low,” Nikita Maslennikov recalled.

According to INSOR's adviser, such trends also carry certain risks - both for the real estate market and the financial sector, and for the economy as a whole.

“Many experts do not rule out that it is premature to talk about the formation of a “bubble” in the mortgage market, but it would be useful and timely to moderate optimism. Still, mortgage loans are a burden on household budgets. Exactly the amount that you will pay off interest on loans by managing this debt, you deduct from your household budget for current consumption. There may be such an effect that, by increasing mortgages, people simultaneously “squeeze” consumer demand in the economy as a whole. A certain redistribution is taking place, and in other segments, demand may be reduced,” the expert emphasized.

Maslennikov believes that the announced refusal to share construction is unlikely to seriously affect the price of mortgages. Another thing is the expected rise in inflation from the current 2.5% to 3.7%. “I do not foresee any serious growth in mortgage rates. But they have declined so much that this year their stabilization is possible. They are likely to stabilize at the current level, go into a pause for a couple of quarters,” the INSOR adviser believes.

Stabilization of prices for mortgages will be accompanied by a slowdown in the growth of mortgage lending, despite the growth in the real wages of the population, Nikita Maslennikov is sure.

Reducing mortgage rates this year took place as part of the fight against inflation, believes Director of the Institute strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev.

According to the doctor of economic sciences, although rates have been reduced, they should not be called low. "The main factor lower mortgage rates It was the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia. It fell by more than 2 percentage points. Credit resources have become cheaper, and banks have the opportunity to reduce mortgage rates. What we have observed. Why the key rate was reduced is also understandable. The inflation target was met and even exceeded: instead of 4% for the year, we had 2.5%,” recalled Igor Nikolaev.

According to the economist, legislative innovations in shared construction unlikely to be able to seriously change the price of a mortgage. “Theoretically, mortgage rates could rise due to innovations related to new financing and lending requirements. But I don't think it will be a significant increase. Rather, they will be fairly stable. The current mortgage rates - 9% or slightly less than 10% - are still much higher than the inflation rate, which is and is forecasted, and higher than the key rate. And this means that mortgage rates have decreased compared to what it was a year or two ago. But when compared with the inflation rate and with the key rate, these mortgage rates are not so low. And this means that if they have the potential for growth, then it is not so significant. Therefore, the rates are likely to remain at the same level,” Igor Nikolaev believes.

The Russian is once again promised stability, but he, taught by bitter experience, is waiting for the next crisis. The strictness of economic laws is offset by the non-mandatory nature of their implementation in Russia.

Anna Semenets, Dmitry Remizov