Foreign currency deposits attract less and less Russians. In the first half of this year, the share of deposits in foreign currency decreased by 0.3 percentage points. - from 20.6% as of January 1, 2018 to 20.3% as of July 1, 2018, the review says.

In general, the volume of household funds in banks increased by more than 1 trillion rubles in six months. — (by 3.9%) to almost 27 trillion rubles.

Thus, the Russians continued to accumulate funds in bank accounts, despite the fact that deposit rates were falling.

“The results of monitoring interest rates on deposits in the 100 largest retail banks indicate a continuing decline in the return on deposits. According to the results of the first half of the year, most of the banks (87 out of 100) lowered their rates. In 6 banks, the rates increased, in 7 - the rates remained at the same level," the DIA said in a statement.

In particular, average interest rates on deposits in rubles for up to a year decreased by 0.9 p.p. up to 6.4%.

According to the agency's estimates, a further reduction in interest rates on deposits may slow down somewhat. In this case, the real return on deposits in any case will remain positive.

The Central Bank does not like the rates on foreign currency deposits

Experts believe that the share of savings in foreign currency is declining for a number of reasons. Relative "calm" foreign exchange market after the devaluation of 2014-2015, the interest of investors in the currency decreased, says a financial analyst at BCS Premier.

“Last year, the situation with the currency was relatively stable, as well as this year, with the exception of the period when the US imposed a new batch of sanctions and the ruble began to weaken amid panic in the markets. Traditionally, a foreign currency deposit is used as a tool to protect against devaluation, but now a low-interest foreign currency deposit is not a guarantee of earnings,” says CEO Mani Fanny company.

The average rate on deposits in Russian banks denominated in euros in July is only 0.1% per annum. For dollars - about 1% per annum. Therefore, it is not surprising that foreign currency deposits are declining, and we do not see a significant demand for them in the bank, says the analyst.

Interest pro ruble deposit, even at low rates, for example, 5-5.5%, “insure exchange rate risks within the current and well-established currency fluctuations in the corridor of 61.5-64.5 rubles. per dollar,” says Pyotr Pushkarev, Chief Analyst at TeleTrade.

At the same time, if rates on ruble deposits, at least temporarily, can slow down their decline, given that the Bank of Russia is recent times takes a break in the decision on the key rate, then the rate on foreign currency deposits will fall in any case.

Banks will reduce rates on foreign currency deposits, bringing them closer and closer to historically low levels offered by European banks, says an expert from the International Financial Center.

At the last meeting at the end of July, the Board of Governors kept the base interest rate on loans at zero. The deposit rate remained at minus 0.4%.

However, according to Alexei Antonov, there is still no talk of approaching rates on foreign currency deposits to zero: banks will still need currency and will need to attract depositors in one way or another.

No more saving

In general, although the Russians continue to carry money to banks, it cannot be said that our fellow citizens manage to put aside an impressive amount on deposit.

“As of July 1, the increase in deposits individuals in Russian banks in annual terms amounted to 8.1%. And the average interest rates on deposits of individuals last year were at the level of 6% per annum, so the real increase was only about 2%. At the same time, it should be taken into account that in the past and this year, the volume of deposits on current accounts grew at a faster pace. This is mainly due to the growth of the card services market, primarily payroll projects, as well as an increase in the number of card service points, ”says the Finam analyst.

“Savings activity remains at the top social group, which is relatively weakly sensitive to the current unfavorable tax, tariff and other changes,” says Loko Bank Deputy Chairman of the Board.

Thus, according to the DIA, deposits in the range from 1 million to 1.4 million rubles grew most rapidly in the first half of the year. - by 7.1% in terms of the amount and by 7% in terms of the number of accounts.

Deposits from 100 thousand to 1 million rubles. grew not so actively - by 2.2% in terms of amount and by 1.8% in terms of the number of accounts.

And deposits up to 100 thousand rubles. decreased over the past six months by 3.7% in amount, while the number of accounts increased by only 0.5%.

According to Andrei Lyushin, not the most wealthy Russians are often forced to withdraw deposits to finance current expenses.

At the same time, if experts do not predict any significant changes in the savings activity of Russians by the end of the year, next year the majority of Russians will most likely be able to save even less money.

In July, they published a pessimistic forecast that assumes GDP growth of 1.4% in 2019, real wages below 1% and inflation above 4%. Experts interviewed earlier by Gazeta.Ru suggested that real incomes of the population could go negative next year.

Given the expected significant slowdown in the growth of real disposable income, one can expect “a certain slowdown in the growth of deposit portfolios in 2019,” admits Stanislav Duzhinsky.

→ Why are interest rates on foreign currency deposits lower than ruble deposits?

Why are interest rates on foreign currency deposits lower than ruble deposits?

During periods of significant exchange rate fluctuations, which are not uncommon in our country, foreign currencies are of particular interest to the population. At such times, unless the lazy one tries to use the situation in the market to make a profit.

Many prefer, because they believe that foreign currency is less subject to inflation than the ruble. At the same time, the US dollar is especially popular. No matter how much a landslide is predicted for the "green", each time the collapse of the American economy is "postponed".

There is nothing surprising in the fact that the dollar has been and remains the most demanded currency in the world, because the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are stored in US dollars. Moreover, it is in them that the largest investments in the world economy are made and international settlements are carried out.

Currency and multicurrency deposits

Russian banks are ready to offer their depositors a choice of deposit programs of several types:

• currency deposits (them, US dollars, euros, pounds sterling, Swiss francs)
• ruble deposits (everything is clear here)
• multicurrency deposits (placement of savings in several currencies at the same time).

The main task of multicurrency deposits is precisely to minimize the depositor's losses in case of fluctuations in exchange rates. When a client chooses a multi-currency deposit, not one, but several accounts are opened at once (a separate account for each type of currency), and funds are distributed among them at the discretion of the depositor.

For each currency, the bank sets its own interest rate. At the same time, the owner of the deposit has the opportunity at any convenient time to transfer cash from one currency account to another, say, if one of the deposit currencies falls in price. The bank converts the placed funds and transfers them to the account chosen by the client, preserving all previously agreed terms of the deposit - term, interest rates, etc.

Why interest on foreign currency deposits is lower than in rubles?

Interest on time deposits in foreign currency is indeed noticeably lower than in Russian rubles. And this has its own explanation.

The fact is that in world practice, when assigning interest on deposits, it is customary to focus on the refinancing rate of the Central Bank (the percentage at which banks can borrow money from the Central Bank) of the country that is the issuer of this currency.

In our country, compared to Western countries, therefore, banks offer interest on fixed-term foreign currency deposits that is lower than on rubles, because a bank, accepting money for a deposit, borrows it from a depositor. The bank must balance the "value" of the money it borrows from its client, otherwise its activities will lose economic sense.

For example, the highest Sberbank rate on dollar deposits at the end of 2014 is 3.08% per annum, and this is with the key rate of the Bank of Russia of 9.5%. By the way, to get one, you need to deposit at least 100 thousand dollars in the bank for 3 years!

The dynamics of lowering interest rates that began in April continues to this day. The Russian market is returning to normal, with rates on long-term deposits higher than short-term ones. Banks no longer need short-term liquidity. By lowering rates on short deposits, they slow down the rate of attraction, thereby regulating the flow of money, and encourage the population to deposit money for long periods.

The first reason for the rate cut- money in Russian banking system enough has accumulated, but there are fewer people who want to borrow them and at interest. Loans are no longer popular. There was nowhere to place money, and no one wants to pay an increased percentage for non-performing money.

As for deposits, people, of course, open them, but not as willingly as last year, when some banks offered up to 16% of income. The decrease in interest on deposits and the difficult economic situation in the country lead to the fact that depositors lose interest in deposits. According to the Central Bank, only slightly more than 10% of Russians surveyed use deposits to save their savings. At the same time, a significant part (44.4%) owns at least one bank account. And 20.7% of respondents have outstanding loans or loans in banks.

Now putting money in the bank for a short time is not profitable. The percentage is low. If we consider offers on deposits, then at least for a year. At the same time, it is important that the bank interest be greater than inflation. At the end of 2016 (estimated by the Central Bank), inflation should slow down to 5-6%.

The second reason appeared in April and gave impetus to a decrease in the profitability of deposits - Sberbank reduced rates on all types of deposits at a time. Traditionally, other banks followed Sberbank.

Periods when systemically important banks lowered interest rates:

• Sberbank, VTB, Rosbank, UniCredit Bank - April 2016
• Gazprombank, FC Otkritie, Raiffeisenbank, Promsvyazbank - May 2016
• Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank - June 2016

The current decline key rate The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (up to 10.5% per annum) cannot be called the first round of monetary policy easing, although there is potential for further reduction. The key rate by the end of the year may decrease by another 2 percentage points - up to 8.5%.

In the near future, we may also see an adjustment in lending rates, since there is a short time period between the reduction in rates on deposits and loans: about a month.

A change in the key rate should revive the secondary housing market. Banks lowering their interest rates will also affect mortgages.

Opinion of a conomy.ru analyst: “Reducing the key rate will greatly affect the availability of borrowed funds for both legal entities and individuals. Thus, the loan portfolio of banks will increase significantly. The banking sector is already striving to soften lending conditions, reducing the key rate is only beneficial.

Further reduction of the key rate directly depends on the level of inflation in the country, the volatility of the exchange rate, such as the euro and the US dollar. Oil prices will play an important role. Based on these data, monetary policy will also change. Central Bank Russia.

Based on the statistics provided by the Central Bank of Russia, it can be judged that the level of inflation expectations of the population has improved and amounted to 6.6%, which is 2% higher than the target level of the Central Bank.”

Foreign currency deposits in Russia are becoming less and less attractive - the minimum rates for them are approaching zero. Large financial institutions are going to further cut interest on deposits in foreign currency - they no longer need dollars and euros. Experts do not rule out that Russian banks will begin to adopt the experience of foreign ones and take money for making deposits.

Bad dollar

Sberbank again about lowering rates on foreign currency deposits. On August 25, Alexander Morozov, deputy chairman of the board of the country's largest financial organization, made a statement to that effect.

“We are replacing expensive Central Bank funding with cheaper ones. We are changing the set of liabilities, most likely, we will reduce the interest on foreign currency deposits in retail,” he said.

Currently, Sberbank offers a number of products that allow you to invest in foreign currency. The maximum rate on the "Save" deposit in dollars is 1.38 percent, in euros - 0.30, on the "Replenish" deposit - 1.17 and 0.2 percent, respectively, "Manage" - 0.86 and 0.05 percent .

Sberbank also has a multi-currency deposit (opened in three currencies at once - in rubles, dollars and euros). The rates on it are 5.61 percent (rubles), 0.91 percent (dollars) and 0.05 percent (euros). The "International" deposit allows you to invest in three more currencies: pounds sterling ( maximum bet- 1.75 percent), Swiss francs (0.01 percent) and Japanese yen (0.55 percent).

Sberbank's minimum rates on deposits in dollars and euros are at the level of 0.01 percent per annum. The credit institution almost zeroed the yield on deposits in foreign currency at the end of April.

"The decrease in rates on deposits of individuals is associated with a general trend towards lowering rates on deposits of individuals in the market," - in Sberbank. Alexander Morozov said at the same time that “we are not mentally ready yet” for rates below zero.

Savings in foreign currency are not the most profitable business. In terms of profitability, Russian banks are sinking to the level of mattresses or shoeboxes - favorite places to keep dollars or euros at home. Rates on ruble deposits are still able to overtake inflation. According to the Central Bank, on average they reach 8.74 percent per annum with inflation of 7.2 percent.

Taking into account the fact that Sberbank is the flagship in the domestic deposit market (by June 1, a financial institution with a population of almost 11 trillion rubles, the total volume of deposits in Russian banks amounted to 23.1 trillion rubles in June), changes in its interest rate policy will lead to corresponding shifts in other banks. At the same time, the day when the rates on foreign currency deposits in Russia will fall into the negative zone is getting closer.

Photo: Evgeny Pavlenko / Kommersant

Follow the market

Russian banks follow the actions of the largest players and are ready to adapt to them, according to a survey by Lenta.ru. At the same time, some financial institutions are ready to lower rates on foreign currency deposits in the near future.

Thus, a representative of Citibank said that interest on foreign currency deposits will decrease on Monday, August 29. The credit institution declined to specify how much profitability would fall, noting only that "rates will be reduced slightly." On August 28, the minimum rate on dollar deposits was 0.1 percent, on deposits in euro - 0.05 percent.

Pavel Nuzhdov, head of the center for savings, settlement and commission products of OTP Bank, also said that the credit institution would reduce the profitability of foreign currency products. "We plan to reduce rates in dollars and euros from September 5 in the amount of 0.1-0.9 percent," he said. At the moment, the minimum yield on deposits in foreign currency in OTP Bank is 0.4 (dollars) and 0.6 percent (euros).

Natalia Nalivkina, Deputy Director of the Retail Business Development Department at Sviaz-Bank, said that approximately in early September, the financial institution would cut rates by about 0.2 percentage points (now the minimum in dollars is 0.05 percent, in euros - 0.01 percent; further in brackets corresponding values ​​will be given).

“At the moment, we are noticing a general trend towards a decrease in the yield on foreign currency deposits and do not rule out a reduction in rates in the near future. In July, we have already lowered the rates on semi-annual and annual deposits in euro by 0.25-0.5 percentage points,” the Moscow credit bank(0.5 and 0.25 percent).

“In the short term, we do not plan to reduce. However, we, as always, focus on the market,” the Obrazovanie bank reported (0.3 and 0.2 percent).

VTB 24, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Raiffeisenbank, the Ural Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Unicredit do not yet plan to reduce rates on deposits in dollars and euros.

Rates on dollar deposits in Russia correspond to the world level, says Mikhail Krylov, director of the analytical department at Golden Hills - Kapital AM. “In the US, there is also a yield of 1.3 percent, and just like in Russia, in not very large credit institutions. At the same time, the return on euro deposits is between 0 and 0.05 percent in Vietnam, Australia, Lithuania, the Republic of Korea, Slovakia, China and Spain,” he comments.

Photo: Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant

Pay for the contribution

The main reason for the revision of the yield on foreign currency deposits is an excess of foreign currency liquidity in the banking sector. The fact is that money cannot lie in the bank dead weight. Financial institutions themselves must “invest” them somewhere. For example, to issue loans at a rate higher than on deposits.

In 2016, a turning point occurred in the Russian banking sector. If earlier financial institutions there were problems with attracting money (this is called a structural liquidity deficit), now there are difficulties with their placement (structural liquidity surplus). In February, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexei Ulyukayev, said that banks were suffering from an excess of foreign exchange liabilities, which literally have nowhere to go, because the demand for foreign currency loans is falling.

“The main reason for the reduction of rates on foreign currency deposits is the lack of need for banks to raise funds in foreign currency. The possibility of investing these funds in foreign exchange assets has decreased both due to sanctions and due to the fact that the population and companies are less active in taking loans in foreign currency due to the high volatility of the ruble,” said Ekaterina Kirillova, an analyst at the RAEX rating agency.

Another reason for the decline in yields on foreign currency deposits is the purposeful policy of the Bank of Russia to devalue the balances of Russian credit institutions.

“For this, the risk weighting coefficients for foreign currency assets were increased and the reserve ratio for foreign currency deposits was increased. The higher the reserve ratio, the less attractive the instrument for the bank - it is forced to alienate more financial resources from the Central Bank and earns less on the remaining share," the analyst commented. investment company Veles Capital Yegor Dakhtler.

“I do not rule out that if current trends continue within 2-3 years, large Russian banks will introduce a zero rate on foreign currency deposits for large clients, adopting the practice of European credit institutions,” says Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst at the Finam group of companies.

He recalls that in 2016, the Swiss Alternative Bank Schweiz introduced a minus 0.75 percent rate on deposits of wealthy clients (having more than 100 thousand francs in their accounts).

“It will still be profitable for rich people to keep funds in a bank, since the cost of keeping cash in a safe will still be higher - up to 1-2 percent per annum,” he concluded.

In order to understand why the rates on foreign currency deposits are lower than on deposits in rubles, you need to look at the situation through the eyes of a banker.

On the one hand, the bank is interested in people keeping money on deposits, and in order to attract the attention of potential depositors, it should strive to offer them favorable conditions.

But, on the other hand, the bank has the opportunity to raise money to finance its operations not only from depositors, but also from many other sources, and, of course, it tries to choose the cheapest among them.

If the value of money in the financial market is low, then it makes little sense for the bank to pay high stakes on deposits, because it is more profitable and easier to take money from the market. It turns out that deposit rates directly depend on the situation in the financial market. And if we look at this very current situation, we will notice that interest rates on interbank loans in dollars and euros are noticeably lower than on loans in rubles.

As you understand, the cheaper it is for a bank to raise money, the more profit it can get by issuing loans to entrepreneurs and individuals, as well as performing transactions in financial markets. And if the bank fails to make a profit from its operations that exceeds its cost of raising money, then it will be at a loss and may go bankrupt.

After the 2008 crisis, loans in foreign currency became less popular than loans in rubles (no one wants to find themselves in an unpleasant financial situation due to a sharp increase in the exchange rate against the ruble). It is difficult for the bank to “attach” the currency received from us, and this further reduces the interest of bankers in deposits in foreign currency.