Horrors are expected after the Olympics. Crisis in the country: hard times may begin after the Olympics Will there be a crisis after the Olympics

The Olympics will be held in Sochi from 7 to 23 February 2014. In November 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation adjusted the forecast for socio-economic development until 2030. The worst - conservative - scenario for the country's development was chosen as the baseline back in September, and in November it worsened even more: in 2030, the Russian economy will continue to be based on raw materials, capital outflow will continue, strong property stratification will continue, predicted in the department. Earlier we wrote about seven signs of a worsening economic situation in the country. This time, RB.ru collected the opinions of experts on the impact of the Sochi Olympics on the Russian economy.

Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the Center for European Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
“In our country, the economy is clearly not all right, everyone sees it. There is a slowdown in economic growth. Over the past years, several problems that lead to this slowdown have not been resolved. This is corruption, this is the housing issue, which entails a decline in the birth rate. "We often say that the birth rate is good. But it can only be called good in comparison with the indicators of the 90s. Among the serious problems are the monopolized market, the slow introduction of innovations. This is a legacy of the Soviet era, but the USSR ceased to exist 20 years ago, look back at this time is not needed.All these factors do not inspire optimism about the Russian economy.

To say that the Olympics will hit the economy is wrong. Part of the investment costs for the Olympics was made in preparation for the Games.

This is not to say that a huge construction site will remain idle after sporting events. We already have enough mega-buildings in our country. In my opinion, the very fact of holding the Olympics should by no means be considered as a trigger for an economic crisis."

Diana Maklozyan, Head of Legal Department at HEADS:
“It is worth noting that a lot of amendments were made to the tax legislation for the Olympics, introducing tax incentives for companies participating in the Olympics. Most of them relate to VAT, which is so revered in Russia.

After the commissioning of the facilities, the amount of VAT claimed for deduction will increase significantly, which will put a burden on the Russian budget. And the budget needs to be replenished, therefore, taxes will increase on the most efficient sector of the economy of the Russian Federation, the oil and gas industry, which will lead to an increase in gas and gasoline prices, which, in turn, will lead to another jump in prices and inflation.

Also, after the Olympics, an outflow of investments outside the Russian Federation is possible, there are two reasons for this: foreign investments in Olympic facilities and the refunded VAT, which someone should receive, will end.

Do not forget that the Sochi Olympics coincides with the fateful date for the US dollar (a technical default is scheduled for February in the US - ed. note), and the Russian economy is too closely connected with the fate of this foreign currency.

Based on the foregoing, it can be assumed that a crisis is possible. But we have been threatened with financial collapse every year since 2008. In any case, it is already difficult for the inhabitants of our country to surprise them, and it is unlikely that anything will change much for 80% of the country's population."

Anton Shabanov, expert of BCS Premier bank:
"There are currently no grounds to believe that Sochi will face a financial crisis - unless, of course, an adequate program is proposed for using the Olympic infrastructure for the development of the resort in the future, sports and other facilities do not suffer the same fate as, for example, many objects in Athens, which were closed as unnecessary shortly after the Olympic Games in 2004. Do not forget that Sochi will also host other large-scale sporting events: the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Formula 1. The fact that the city is already saturated with transport, infrastructural, communal capacities, will allow to develop tourist attractiveness, create new jobs, increase city incomes.

The population of our country froze in anxious expectation - according to rumors, Russia after the 2014 Olympics facing a major economic crisis. It seems that the recent depreciation of the ruble is one of its first signs.

Russian economy after the 2014 Olympics

There are rumors that after the 2014 Olympics Russia will face an economic crisis. After the mobilization of all internal resources for the implementation of the large-scale Sochi-2014 project. The RB.ru portal provides expert opinions on the possibility of a crisis after the 2014 Olympics and its impact on the Russian economy.

Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the Center for European Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

“In our country, the economy is clearly not all right, everyone sees it. There is a slowdown in economic growth. Over the past years, several problems that lead to this slowdown have not been resolved. This is corruption, this is the housing issue, which entails a decline in the birth rate. "Among the serious problems are the monopolized market, the slow introduction of innovations. All these factors do not inspire optimism about the Russian economy. It is wrong to say that the Olympics will hit the economy. Part of the investment costs for the Olympics were made even in preparation for the Games. In my opinion, The very fact of the Olympics should by no means be seen as a trigger for an economic crisis."

Anton Shabanov, expert of BCS Premier bank:

"There are currently no grounds to believe that Sochi will face a financial crisis - unless, of course, an adequate program is proposed for using the Olympic infrastructure for the development of the resort in the future. Do not forget that Sochi will also host other large-scale sporting events: the World football 2018, Formula 1 racing".

Diana Maklozyan, Head of Legal Department at HEADS:

“It is worth noting that a lot of amendments were made to the tax legislation for the Olympics, introducing tax incentives for companies participating in the Olympics. Most of them relate to VAT, which is so revered in Russia.

After the commissioning of the facilities, the amount of VAT claimed for deduction will increase significantly, which will put a burden on the Russian budget. And the budget needs to be replenished, therefore, taxes on the most efficient sector of the Russian economy, the oil and gas industry, will increase, which will lead to an increase in gas and gasoline prices, which, in turn, will lead to another jump in prices and inflation.

Also, after the Olympics, an outflow of investments outside the Russian Federation is possible, there are two reasons for this: foreign investments in Olympic facilities and the refunded VAT, which someone should receive, will end.

Do not forget that it coincides with the fateful date for the US dollar, and the Russian economy is too closely connected with the fate of this foreign currency. Based on the foregoing, it can be assumed that a crisis is possible.

What will happen after the 2014 Olympics with the Olympic venues

The fate of almost all Olympic venues has been determined. Some plans for their further use were announced back in March 2013, during a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with officials and representatives of sports federations.

According to RIA-Novosti, during this meeting the governor of the Krasnodar Territory said that in the future the skating center would become a large exhibition area and conduct commercial activities, and the international media center would turn into a shopping complex. According to the governor's estimates, after the Olympics, about 100 thousand people will live in hotels and houses of the former Olympic village, and the shopping mall will be popular.

Earlier, officials of the Ministry of Sports and experts considered it possible to convert the ice sports palace for figure skating and Iceberg short track competitions into an indoor cycle track. The small ice arena for ice hockey can later become an all-Russian educational center for hockey.

At the session of the IOC in early February 2014, it confirmed the plans for reprofiling: “The All-Russian Children's Sports and Education Center will be created on the basis of several objects of the Games. For the world practice, the transfer of objects of Olympic significance, Olympic facilities to the sphere of children's sports is still a rare phenomenon.”

The country's economic situation is the main cause for concern for many Russians. The inhabitants of Russia were a little distracted from negative thoughts thanks to the enchanting celebration of peace, sport and friendship - the Olympic Games. But the world event in Sochi is coming to an end.

Thoughts about the victories of domestic athletes are replaced by worries about rising prices, stagnation and instability of the ruble. The holiday ends, and many are puzzled by the question: "How will the country heal after the closing of the Olympic Games?".

Negative thoughts about the sad economic situation in Russia are a normal reaction of any person who understands a little about economics. A lot of money has been invested in the Olympics. Was it a waste of resources that could trigger a financial crisis, or will investment in the Olympics make Russia's economy healthier?

The Olympics has more than once been the cause of economic problems, for example, remember Greece, and how the holiday of peace and sports turned out for her. The crisis manifested itself here due to the overspending of funds allocated for the Games. As a result, the country's budget has become scarce by 9 billion euros. Greece did not find the use of most of the facilities built for the Olympics. By doing this, she caused irreparable damage to her financial condition. Only authoritative experts can explain the consequences of the Olympics for the country's economy.

For example, Natalya Orlova, who holds the position of a leading economist at Alfa-Bank and a professor at the Department of the Stock Market and Investments at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that the Olympic Games do not slow down economic growth. An effect on the scale of 0.1-0.2% of GDP per year should be expected. What are the expert's assumptions? N. Orlova explains her assumptions by the peculiarity of the localization of the effect: the consequences will be for one region, and not for the whole country.

According to the expert, there is no need to wait for the deplorable economic situation in the country. All this is an erroneous assumption of the population. There is no need to think that the Kremlin is not in control of the situation, and the exchange rate will change after the Olympics. In fact, there are no threats to the Russian economy. The government is acting according to the regular scenario. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation allows large movements in the exchange rate for one reason: the rate is determined by the market, the priorities of investors. Natalya Orlova explains that there is no connection between the end of the Olympic Games and the sharp decline in the Russian economy.

The same opinion is shared by Andrey Nikityuk, Chairman of the Board of Concern General Invest. The expert believes that there is no threat of a crisis for the country after the end of the Olympics. A. Nikityuk confirms a slight slowdown in economic growth, but it is connected with the preparations for the Olympics: large investments in construction added points to Russia's GDP.

Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari, does not rule out that after the Olympics, the Russian economy will return to stagnation. It is possible that after the completion of the Olympics, the profit from it will add about 0.7-1% to GDP. The specialist confirms his opinion with the example of the London 2012 Olympics. It had a positive impact on the UK economy: the economic effect was 9.9 billion pounds, and the costs amounted to 9 billion. British experts forecast economic benefits to rise to £40bn by 2020.

Georgy Vashchenko, head of operations at Freedom Finance, explains that business profits from the Olympics, while the state loses. The cost of the Olympic Games in Russia amounted to 1 trillion rubles. But the state has invested in infrastructure, but not in the Games. G. Vashchenko believes that this is not enough. The government rejected a proposal to build a high-speed railroad. The new railway line would have connected the Center of the Russian Federation with the Caucasus, but this did not happen. The tourist flow is still limited by the capacity of the highways and the Sochi airport.

G. Vashchenko reassures the Russians, says that there will be no crisis after the Olympics. The expert recalls the upcoming sporting event - the World Cup. The state will build the necessary sports facilities, repair roads and airports in the country. But in this case, a large-scale world-class event will not become an opportunity for the country to achieve high economic growth in some regions. The championship will remain in history, but will remind of itself with weak budgets of federal subjects.

Nikolai Zhuravlev, member of the Federation Council, deputy chairman for budget and financial market issues, also rules out economic problems after the Olympics. The expert is confident that the Games, on the contrary, will have a positive effect. According to Nikolai Zhuravlev, the crisis was avoided by the weakening of the ruble. Due to the politically unstable situation, Russia's GDP growth will be low, but will not go beyond the positive zone.

Authoritative opinions of experts agree on one thing: there will be no crisis after the Olympics. But there is no need to wait for any positive changes. The government has invested huge sums in the Krasnodar Territory, but the changes in the economy have a local effect. The vast majority of Russians will not feel the changes in the economic situation in the country. Despite this, we are seeing how the economy is slowing down, and the ruble is still losing ground.

— Over the past weeks, the ruble has fallen significantly against both the euro and the dollar. And people don't understand what's going on, because usually we associate the rise in the exchange rate with the fall in oil prices. Could you explain to our readers what is happening and why?

There are a number of related circumstances here. Circumstance one: Russia's balance of payments is deteriorating. During the time of high oil prices, we have become accustomed to the fact that we have a positive balance of payments - and with a very significant advantage.

However, the results of 2013 can only be called alarming. We are talking about the fact that the positive balance of current operations of the balance of payments decreased last year by more than two times. From 82 billion dollars a year to 33 billion.

If this trend continues, then by the end of 2014 this balance may become negative. When the balance of such operations becomes negative, this is exactly what affects the exchange rate of the national currency in the strongest way.

Second circumstance. Our authorities, in fact, are not against this devaluation. The devaluation of the ruble by about a ruble means the appearance in the budget of more than 150 billion rubles of additional income, since the budget receives the main income from foreign economic activity, and they are denominated in foreign currency. And the main budget expenditures are made in rubles.

- That is, it is beneficial to the authorities?

In fact, we are dealing with a hidden form of depreciation of state obligations. Moreover, the scale here is quite decent: already six months ago we had the opportunity to observe a ten percent devaluation. This story continues to this day.

The government faced a virtual cessation of economic growth. It is an all-time low for the entire period of Putin's rule - 1.3 percent in 2013. It was worse only in the crisis year of 2009, when there was a drop of almost 8 percent. However, there has not been such low economic growth since 1999.

If you look at the dynamics from the 10th year, when there was a recovery and there was 4 percent, then we can observe a very sad trend. And this trend is reinforced by the fact that we have an unprecedented low growth rate of oil production. Oil production is up less than a percent this year.

The government commented on this in such a way that we have reached a record high level. But this indicator (less than a percent) has a direct correlation with low economic growth.

Over the past couple of years, we have been actively nationalizing the fuel and energy complex - the state's share there has already exceeded 50 percent. And this means that next year Russia may face not only a small increase, but also a drop in oil production.

From the point of view of budget revenues, this is further aggravated by the fact that oil prices are stagnating - they are not growing. In 11-12, the Russian government was helped by the fact that there was a war in Libya, but now this factor is gone.

Therefore, the government lends to commercial banks at very low rates. They receive ruble cash, and then, seeing that there is a devaluation, they willingly exacerbate this devaluation by buying foreign currency with money received from the Central Bank. And the authorities, as I said, are not against this devaluation.

You can pay attention to a number of other figures. For example, in December last year, excess reserves of commercial banks jumped by 60 percent. This is due to the seasonal nature. In December, there is a sharp surge in budget expenditures: departments want to have time to spend all their expenses in the outgoing year, because their transfer to the next year is associated with serious bureaucratic costs (in fact, we are talking about re-approving these expenses). All this, of course, spurs devaluation.

And one more factor. The population and enterprises withdrew about half a trillion rubles from the banking sector in a month, and this is a huge amount. There was a panic after the revocation of licenses from Master Bank and Investbank.

There was also a statement from the leadership of the Central Bank that they would continue to fight "bad" banks. This also caused a panic effect, since no one knows which bank is bad and which is good. And if you remember, even the well-known guarantee for 700 thousand does not apply to enterprises. And enterprises that kept funds in commercial banks faced the danger of losing them completely.

— And what can you say about the near future of the ruble?

As for forecasts, I think that the main thing that will determine the exchange rate of the national currency in the coming year is the state of our balance of payments. If imports continue to increase and exports stagnate, then the positive balance of payments will shrink.

The authorities, in turn, will mitigate this by spending gold and foreign exchange reserves, which are very significant in Russia - hundreds of billions of dollars. We are among the top five countries with the largest gold and foreign exchange reserves.

— Usually, when the rate rises - and seriously - people begin to worry, ask questions. And then a strange reaction - only the Moscow office plankton sighs sadly: they say they left for Europe. And in your opinion, why don't citizens run to exchange offices to get rid of rubles?

It's just that most of the population does not have any savings that they could invest in currency or shift from one asset to another. What is happening is mainly caused by the actions of large players: commercial banks receiving cheap liquidity; enterprises withdrawing money from accounts in private banks, and individuals engaged in the same, but individuals, I emphasize, very rich.

A significant part of the population does not have any serious savings. On the contrary, there are debts in the form of loans. In terms of the level of debt burden of the population, we are compared with the United States - given how much money we spend on paying off loans from our monthly income.

But our debt is shorter and more expensive: we have a much higher percentage of loans, and their repayment period is much shorter than in America. But the United States is also considered a highly credited country - in this regard, it stands out from a number of other developed countries.

- And the last question. Most of the population after the end of the Olympics is looking forward to some kind of economic collapse. Many say the economy will simply collapse.

Personally, I expect the stagnation to continue. I don't expect any drastic decline. A sharp decline is possible only in one case - in the event of a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices. This has happened before: we all remember 1998 and 2008. We know that hydrocarbon prices can fall by two or three times in a few months.

This, of course, is a minus. But the plus here is that such a fall - albeit deep - is short-lived. As the experience of the last two crises has shown, these prices are successfully restored during the year.

In Russia, in addition to the already mentioned gold and foreign exchange reserves, there are other significant reserves. These are, for example, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, in which about 10 trillion rubles are now concentrated. For you to understand, this is almost an annual budget. Our budget is now 13.6 trillion rubles, and a quite comparable amount is in sovereign funds.

This means that during the year the government is more or less able to withstand the blow even from a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices. And the likelihood that such a crisis could last longer than a year, in my opinion, is small.

There is, however, an objective problem: in Russia it becomes profitable to be a civil servant and unprofitable to engage in business and entrepreneurship. Therefore, we have a growing capital outflow. Our industrial production is falling. Economic growth is already starting to go to zero.

These problems are also long-term - they cannot be solved quickly. This means that no major improvements should be expected either.

As for the Olympics, its significance for the economy is simply negligible. As for politics... All the actions that were taken in the international arena to improve the image of Russia (in the form of an amnesty for a number of political prisoners, including Khodorkovsky), they have already been implemented.

And the government will continue to exist in the regime of soft authoritarianism in which it has existed for the last couple of years, that is, it will act through selective and non-mass repressions. And those who say that after the Olympics we will again have the 37th year, in my opinion, are simply delusional. Moreover, they have been raving like this for more than one year: that's how Putin came to power, so among the unbalanced public, talk began about the 37th. And they still say so.

- It turns out that we should wait for the continuation of stagnation, but there will be no sharp crisis?

Yes, there will be no sharp drop, because the gold and foreign exchange reserves and sovereign funds of the Russian budget will make it possible to withstand even a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices.

Material prepared People: Maria Ponomareva, Roman Popkov