Dollar ruble forecast for the week is accurate. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What affects the USDRUB exchange rate

For residents of Russia and CIS countries USD/RUB exchange rate is of great importance. Turbulences in the foreign exchange market lead to a significant rise in the price of goods and services, which was most clearly observed in 1998, 2008 and 2014. Strong volatility, followed by long-term periods of stability, allows speculators to earn both on the trend and on sideways movements.

USD RUB exchange rate is now on the exchange (online) - Live Chart

The USD/RUB chart works online and provides the opportunity to connect and also conduct your own manual analysis using special additional tools.

Due to the increased volatility, this instrument is popular among speculators. After the crisis of 2014, it overtook futures in terms of popularity and became the most popular instrument on the domestic market. USD/RUB chart shows strong and distinct movements that are easily analyzed using popular technical indicators.

USD/RUB forecast for today

The USD/RUB forecast is updated constantly, so keep an eye on the update date. The USD/RUB forecast compiled on the basis of technical indicators and has a different degree of signal strength. We recommend paying attention only to the values Actively buy and Actively sell, and the best situation will be when these values ​​are repeated on all timeframes.

General characteristics USD/RUB

The USD/RUB currency pair is called exotic in the world and is not very popular. This is due to the fact that the Central Bank regulates the ruble exchange rate, and traders consider the Russian economy unstable and the currency risky, and also, key news on RUB is released in Russian, which few people in the world know.

Active trading takes place during the trading session of the Moscow Exchange, and after its closing, trading practically stops. Many brokers prefer to close trades before 8 am so that the USD/RUB chart has a more pleasant look and is easier to succumb to technical analysis.

The USD/RUB pair has a standard $100,000 lot per . Brokers provide fractional parts of lots, which allows you to trade quotes, starting with a sale or purchase from $1.

• If you are predicting dollar growth- you need buy quote.
• If you are predicting ruble growth- you need sell quote.

Despite the fact that the history of the quote began in 1991, it was only in the last couple of years that brokers began to add it to their list. Previously, such an asset was rare.

What affects the USDRUB exchange rate

The dollar/ruble pair is heavily influenced by monetary policy Central Bank RF and Fed USA. Raising the key rate in Russia leads to a depreciation of the US currency. In turn, the increase in rates by the US government leads to the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies, including the ruble.

The release of news from America has a stronger impact on the USD/RUB rate.

There is a belief that the ruble quotes directly depend on. If oil is growing, then the dollar begins to decline against the ruble and vice versa - the fall in hydrocarbon prices leads to a decrease in demand for the Russian national currency. This is not entirely true. If we pay attention to the fall in oil during the globalfinancial crisis of 2007, it can be seen that the ruble fell, but did not collapse, as happened in 2014. Now the ratio of the ruble to the dollar is largely determined by international risk appetite. The ruble, like commodity instruments, is a risky instrument. Accordingly, when large market participants show interest in venture investments, both oil and the ruble begin to grow, and vice versa.

Indirectly, the USD/RUB exchange rate also depends on the euro, because if the European currency falls, then, accordingly, the dollar strengthens, and not only against the euro, but also against other currencies, including the ruble.

The ruble exchange rate in the Russian Federation is managed and regulated, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of many market players. In general, the USD/RUB currency pair is influenced by many economic news - GDP, unemployment, interest rates, consumer sentiment and so on, but the Central Bank tries to avoid strong jumps and smoothes the course with its actions.

What is the best way to trade the USD/RUB currency pair (+example)

USD/RUB price dynamics allows implementing both long-term and short-term speculative strategies. The use of the simplest price channels with an adequate interval brings tangible returns already on 2 and 3-month trades. In the long-term medium-term (from a month or more), it is recommended to work only on the increase, excluding short positions. This is due more to the macroeconomic environment than to objective technical indicators.

• Holding the dollar short for a long time will mean that you are going against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (which benefits from a cheap ruble) and the US position (sanctions are a fundamental factor in the ruble devaluation), which is not very reasonable.

It would be advisable to open deals when the price channel is broken through with an interval of 20 on the daily chart. As a stop, you can use the lower border of the channel, or a fixed order of 6% with periodic pulling it up to the current price.

At 15-minute intervals, it is convenient to use 150 or 160 intervals. Due to the shortening of the time interval, it will be possible to open short positions. Thus, breaking the channel down means a reversal to short, and breaking it up - to long. The same lines are stops in a situation where the price goes against the trader. The size of the transaction should be calculated based on such proportions that it is impossible to lose more than 4% from the current entry point.

• You can also use an adaptive price channel on USD/RUB, which can automatically select the required interval.

Among the most profitable tools for making money can be identified. In addition to high profits, this tool is very simple and affordable.

To make money on binary options, you only need to determine the direction of the price. That is, here it does not matter to us how much the price will change, it is only important whether it goes up or down, even if it is only one point.

Instead of 1000 words, we will show with an example how USD/RUB trading from a well-known and regulated broker.

After some analysis, we decided that USD/RUB exchange rate will grow, and the USD/RUB forecast confirmed this. We opened and selected the desired asset:

Then, in the deal settings, specify the deal time:

The option will close at 14:30, in 19 minutes. It remains to indicate whether the price will be higher or lower at the time of closing the transaction relative to the quote at the time of buying the option. We predict a fall along the trend and press the button DOWN:

If after 19 minutes, at the time of closing the transaction, the USD/RUB rate is lower than at the time of purchase, our option condition will be fulfilled and we will receive a 65% profit.

We didn't have to wait long, and here are the results of the deal:

The chart shows how the value of the dollar against the ruble fell, our forecast came true, and we returned $132, of which $52 is net profit:

Features of the USDRUB currency pair

Due to the tense economic situation in the Russian Federation, the country's population has traditionally used the US dollar and other reserve currencies as the only affordable way to save money. Thus, the next budgetary difficulties may cause an increased demand for dollars among the population. The load on bank exchangers causesincreased demand for deliverable foreign exchange contracts on the exchange itself. During such periods, banks widen the spread for buying and selling. Thus, those people who are not familiar with the foreign exchange markets have to buy dollars at a huge markup. In particular, on the eve of 2016, the difference in banks was more than 11 rubles.

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Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, restrictions apply to such companies oil and gas industry Russia:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

Sanctions have not bypassed the industry Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

Behind last years the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia fell more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, the property, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the rate of inflation and credit policy countries.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2019.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current position.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also prevent the ruble from stabilizing. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and the forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better will be the country's lending policy, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. Equipment left over from the times Soviet Union, does not allow to work at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which depends entirely on environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

for example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of America's "powerful moves" that was staged to support the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rate which could have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable cash. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

The dollar exchange rate has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. It draws the attention of not only the Central Bank, the players on the stock exchanges, but also ordinary citizens. Keeping track of fluctuations is not always easy: the official one is different from the one set by the banks. Therefore, we offer you to use our service. With it, you will learn:

• current rate,
• schedule changes,
• features of selling and buying,
• profitable offers from banks in real time.

How is the dollar exchange rate formed?

The dollar exchange rate today depends on many circumstances. The main factors include: the activity of the Central Bank of Russia, economic and political news, tax periods, the activity of commercial banks and demand from the population. Performance management is not the task of central financial institutions, but any change in the amount of money in circulation can lead to changes in the foreign exchange market.

Among the factors there are significant news in the economic sphere:

• Macroeconomic reports increase the likelihood of policy tightening. This leads to an increase in the attractiveness of investments and the inflow of foreign currency into the country.
• When indicators deteriorate, the situation changes in the opposite direction.

To some extent, the dollar also depends on the amount of gold the US Federal Reserve has. The more it is in the state, the more confidently the monetary unit is kept on the banking exchanges. But despite this, the behavior of the currency is so unpredictable that even experienced financiers cannot always confidently predict how the dollar will behave or with 100 percent certainty.

Therefore, we suggest you find out the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow or the forecast for the date you set. To predict the dollar exchange rate, you can study:

• archive,
• oscillation chart.

Most fluctuations occur due to changes in the price of oil. It affects the global volume of production, its consumption.

Why know the dollar exchange rate?

Obtaining information about the dollar exchange rate online allows entrepreneurs, government organizations and ordinary people to track events taking place in the global financial market. Now many people tend to make deposits in foreign currency, considering this option the most profitable and stable.

In recent years, there has been an increase in the desire of Russian citizens to vacation abroad. Regardless of the country, many first change rubles for dollars, and then for the desired currency. This allows you not only to save money, but also to win.

A convenient service has been developed on our website for making any of the transactions. Thanks to him, you will not only find out the cost of buying or selling a dollar, but you will also be able to find a bank that offers the most profitable option. This dollar/ruble exchange rate is highlighted in red.

Thus, using special financial instruments, information about the US dollar exchange rate, you can predict the result, make a profitable investment of finances, and make a profit. We have tried to make sure that you can get up-to-date information from the presenters at any time.

Information!

The graph shows the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate for 7 days. During this time, the US dollar had a maximum value of 64.00 and a minimum of 63.63 rubles. The difference in the change in the exchange rate for this period between the minimum and maximum value is 0.36 rubles. At the beginning of the period, the dollar exchange rate was 63.63 rubles, at the end - 63.87 rubles. The difference for 7 days between the initial and final value was 0.24 rubles. Also on the graph, the dollar trend line for the selected time period is shown in gray. You can change the currency from the drop-down list at the top of the page. From another list, you can select the time range to view the rate change. When viewing, it is necessary to take into account that for some currencies the denomination is indicated for tens, hundreds or thousands of units. The denomination is indicated in the chart legend. If you move the mouse cursor over the chart, you will see the current value of the Dollar at a particular point in time.

Dollar exchange rate. Sep 26–Oct 29, 2019

Picture US dollar

Coins and banknotes in circulation

Coins: 1 and 5 cents, 1 dime, 1⁄4, 1⁄2 and 1 dollar. Banknotes: 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollars.

Story

The first US dollars were minted in 1794, before that there were Spanish coins in circulation. In particular, the silver real was widely used in the American colonies.

Description

In 1785, the US government introduced its own currency, the dollar (USD). But it wasn't until 1794 that the first US silver dollar was issued. The term "dollar" has its roots in the medieval age. Initially, there was a “thaler”, which, over time, with abbreviations and translation from one language to another, began to sound like a “dollar”. This was helped by the Danes, who renamed the “thaler” into “daler”, and it became a dollar thanks to the British, who began to pronounce “daler” as “dollar”. According to history, it turns out that the “dollar” originated in the city of Jachymov on the territory of modern Czech Republic, where the first “thalers” were minted, the name of which comes from the word “Joachimstaler”, in honor of the name of the mine. Prior to 1861, "dollars" were any silver coin similar to a "thaler", including the Spanish "peso" used in the American colonies. The dollar also has the slang term "bucks". The origin of this slang has several versions. According to the first version, "bucks" came from the word "buckskin" - translated from in English sounds like "buck skin". When the Indians exchanged skins for provisions, the traders used colloquially instead of the name of the coin "dollar" the word "buck". According to the second version, the origin of the slang word "bucks" came from the Roman numeral ten, which was on the back of a 10-dollar bill and sounded like "sawbuck". According to the third version, the Southern States nicknamed the dollar bill "Greenbacks" in the translation "green back" in the color of the bill. And "Greenbacks" spread across the country, shortened to "backs". In 1861, new $5, $10, and $20 notes were issued in green reverse, as this was the only paint in stock in large quantities. And until that time, bonds issued by the US Treasury from 1794 to 1861 are considered to be incomplete banknotes. Therefore, 1861 became the year of the introduction of a single banking system. Since 1913, the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve System) has been responsible for issuing and accounting for the US dollar. Today, the US dollar has been the main reserve currency since 1944, when the monopoly of the gold standard was ended and the US dollar became the only currency pegged to gold under the Bretton Woods agreement. It was not until 1976 that the US dollar was officially depegged to gold, when the Jamaican currency system was adopted. At the same time, the US dollar remained the main reserve currency floating rate against other currencies. Despite competition from the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading position in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base for settlements through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails. The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are carried out through this currency and the main quotes are set. Experts' opinions regarding the future dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion. On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, outpacing China, which is in second place, by almost two to one. In addition, the high exchange rate of the dollar is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in US currency and during crises seek to convert them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.

This page contains information from various sources trying to predict the dollar for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.

Sorry, forecasts are not available at this time.

Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate

There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or the euro (or rather, the exchange rate or the strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the price of oil and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency, based on the corresponding price movements for this energy carrier.

We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple coefficients that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.

Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar

Pearson coefficient = -0.7136

Well... If you want, you can see the correlation here.

If the Pearson coefficient modulo tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the considered interval. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these coefficients.

The history of Pearson's ratio fluctuations over the past year

It can be seen that over time, the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.

As a result, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet, you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on the subject. Traders in the currency markets use their models, trained using machine learning, heaps of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.

There are also a lot of sites with frank trash on the Internet. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, a month, a year - any period. By all indications - all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.