Alexey Antonov, analyst at Alor Broker: Quite a lot of points of view have already been expressed regarding the situation with the Russian currency. From the saddest - where at the end of the year the ruble against the dollar will weaken to 75 rubles. and above, up to moderately smoothed with a cost of no more than 68 rubles. per dollar. In our opinion, it is worth adhering to the soft forecast with a gradual further weakening of the national currency in the range of 70-72 rubles. until the end of the year. This is explained by the fact that the ruble will inevitably be affected by a package of new US sanctions in November and an imminent new outflow of capital from the Russian government debt, but also by a fairly stably high price of oil on world markets. The situation with sanctions against Iran and the growing seasonal demand for energy resources will play into the hands here. Thus, the negative effect of the sanctions will somehow recoup at the expense of the resource sector.

It is important to understand that such an unpleasant weakening of the ruble - and over the past 12 months, the "wooden" has decreased by almost 10 rubles. - caused rather not only by uncontrollable factors in the form of sanctions, but also has tacit support from internal Russian processes - it has been said more than once that the ruble is greatly underestimated and is rather a hostage of the situation due to the so-called deterrent effects on the part of the authorities. If not for external geopolitical factors of influence, it could well cost 60 rubles. or even lower, the high cost of oil allows it.

On the whole, it would be strange to deny that a weak ruble is not beneficial to the authorities now. More than once thoughts have already slipped that a strong ruble in the face of such influence from the outside may be against filling reserve funds at the expense of super profits. Therefore, there is no need to talk about the intentional strengthening of the national currency.

As for the interest rate of the Central Bank, most likely, in the current conditions of the expected weakening of the economy and the negative effect of sanctions, it would be right to insure the situation and increase it by 0.25% to 7.5%, which will smooth out the effect of external factors, but will negatively affect both on the situation in the financial sector and on consumer sentiment.

Alexander Shustov, CEO MFI "Money Fanny": The ruble does not exist by itself, in the globalized world economy it is one of the currencies of developing countries. At the moment, investors' capital is trying to leave developing countries for developed ones, or rather, for the US economy, which is ready to offer them a dollar yield of up to 2.9% per year on 10-year US Treasuries, as well as advantages in direct investment in American companies. For example, in the form of reduced taxes for these companies and their products. The Brazilian real, Argentine peso, Turkish lira are falling against the US dollar because emerging economies offer investors too high risks and relatively low returns. And this will continue as long as the US Fed's reserve rate is relatively high and shows an upward trend, while the key rates of developing countries, including Russia, are relatively low and show a downward trend. And this is all other things being equal, which, of course, are in the case of the ruble, and these conditions are sanctions that are becoming more and more stringent and prevent attracting investments with the help of public debt. In such conditions, the road to the rate of 71 rubles is almost guaranteed to be open for the dollar. until the end of the year. Sanctions against OFZs in their light version, when the ban is imposed only on transactions with new government debt, are already included in the course, but their heavy version, if adopted, could drop the dollar even by 75. The heavy version implies a ban on transactions with all issues of OFZ - both new and old. The weakening of the ruble is beneficial for exporters, export state-owned companies, it helps them earn relatively more rubles on exports and spend them domestically. A weak ruble is beneficial to the budget, which can fulfill its obligations in the same amount of money, but less in value. Raising the key rate in the context of GDP growth by 1-1.5% per year is hardly possible, as it will stop this weak growth as well.

Sergei Zvenigorodsky, Head of Retail Sales, SOLID Management: The ruble has already been weakened by the government to the levels of 2014, when, with an oil price of 75-80 dollars per barrel and a low level of exports, they gave 80 rubles. per dollar. Now the situation has changed dramatically - oil costs the same, and exports are breaking all records and have grown by 50% by August. Part of this rise has undoubtedly been the rise in hydrocarbon prices. But their total sales volume in export earnings is gradually declining from the 30% mark. The main beneficiary of the weakening of the ruble at the end of the year will be the state and big business, mainly with state participation. Filling the budget by increasing export earnings will make it possible to fulfill all obligations to citizens and develop the economy. In addition, this approach allows you not to spend money on maintaining the ruble exchange rate and reduce any possible sanctions to a minimum.

Unfortunately, the strengthening of the ruble will follow external signs, not internal ones. Brexit in the EU, Senate elections in Washington, transfer of contracts for the purchase of hydrocarbons from West to East (China is reducing supplies from the US and is ready for a reduction from the Saudis and Qatar if other channels from Russia, Venezuela and other countries of the Middle East are set up), as well as further growth of inflation in the US and sanctions on transactions with the dollar, will lead to crisis phenomena. These points of change will lead to the fact that foreign participants will use to save not only the US market, but also emerging ones. It can be noted that the replacement of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the countries that placed it in the United States with speculative capital due to the increase in the Fed rate led to strong dollar volatility and general instability of the global market. This leads to a strong reaction to any changes in the economy and politics. If we compare the situation in Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela and Iran, then Russia has the most "vigorous" and balanced economy. The sanctions have led to the fact that the country was able to reorganize itself into its own production and create an ever stronger base for development.

Of course, this development of events led to a decrease in the real incomes of the population, and the high cost of borrowing abroad and the lack of money within Russia in free access leads to problems in the social and economic spheres. There is not enough free liquidity and the Central Bank will continue to tighten monetary policy, as it always does in such a case, so the rate increase to 7.5% is quite expected during the next meeting. This increase will push banks to develop and understand revenue generation processes as they are used to, that is, with higher margins. But the credit rate will rise again for some time before the end of the year.

Sergey Drozdov, analyst at FINAM Group: At this stage, one of the main problems for global financial markets is still the escalation of tensions in trade relations between Washington and Beijing - the White House systematically continues to put pressure on China, thereby trying to reduce the trade deficit with China. The confrontation between the two largest economies may have a detrimental effect on global GDP growth, and further protectionism, the strengthening of the dollar and a faster tightening of monetary policy by the overseas regulator may lead to a decline in the US stock market in the fourth quarter and increase pressure on emerging markets that have already suffered serious loss this year.

At the moment, in addition to the negative conjuncture in emerging markets, the national currency is under pressure from the situation regarding the prospect of further restrictions by the United States. Measures against the Russian economy include tough sanctions against Russian state-owned banks and new issues of government debt. If such unprecedented measures against the domestic financial sector are taken, then the level of 69, which at this stage is a kind of red ribbon for speculators, will not stand and the ruble can quickly test the mark of 71 per dollar and above. We will also see another wave of sales in long OFZs and on the stock market, where the main beneficiaries of the fall will be the papers of Sberbank and VTB.

Most likely, until the details of the next sanctions package, which will be discussed in detail by the US Congress in September, are clarified, the ruble is waiting for a range of 65-69 against the dollar. In turn, before the midterm elections to the US Congress, which will be held in November, one cannot exclude new aggressive statements from overseas partners, which will also have a negative impact on the national currency.

Thus, the chances for the ruble to return to the range of 61-64, under favorable conditions and the situation on the commodity market, is possible only by December of this year.

Despite the fact that the weak ruble plays into the hands of exporters and provides additional revenues to the budget, the devaluation of the national currency has already led to a significant rise in the price of gasoline, which may cause an increase in prices for food and manufactured goods. Even now, producers of sausages and semi-finished products, which are suffering losses due to a sharp increase in the cost of raw materials, want to increase retail prices. All this, coupled with an increase in VAT and an increase in tariffs for housing and communal services, which have in some cases increased by 25% since last year, create prerequisites for a double-digit increase in consumer inflation and a decrease in the standard of living of the population.

As for the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, at the upcoming meeting on September 14, the regulator is likely to leave the key interest rate without change, until the situation is clarified in relation to further sanctions plans by the United States in relation to the domestic economy.

MOSCOW, 24 Sep — PRIME. The ruble continues to rise against the dollar and the euro during the day against the backdrop of Brent oil trading above $80 per barrel, the dollar fell to 66 rubles.

The dollar exchange rate with settlements "tomorrow" at 12.05 Moscow time on Monday decreased by 38 kopecks, to 66.03 rubles (earlier on Monday it had already decreased to 66 rubles, for the first time since August 9), the euro exchange rate - also by 38 kopecks, to 77.69 rubles, follows from the trading data of the Moscow Exchange. November futures for Brent crude jumps 2.29% to $80.03 per barrel. The ruble exchange rate at the beginning of the day shows a steady growth against the dollar and the euro against the backdrop of rising oil prices and the approaching peak of tax payments, analysts say.

Oreshkin: The ruble will return to fundamental values

"The main factor for the ruble today is rising oil prices. The government bond index (MOEX RGBI) is growing for the fifth day in a row, the geopolitical background is calm. The situation around Rusal is moving in a positive direction, this may be a sign of improving relations between Russia and the United States. In recent months, the correlation between the ruble exchange rate and oil quotes was low, but in the near future it will again be relevant,” said Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at Alpari.

"(Oil - ed.) Bulls were satisfied with the results of the meeting of the OPEC + monitoring committee at the weekend. Contrary to a number of expectations, no decision was made on an additional increase in production, and the countries only agreed to continue to strive for 100% fulfillment of production quotas After a strong excess earlier, the Baker Hughes report showed a decrease in the number of oil drilling rigs in the US last week by one unit,” says Elena Kozhukhova from Veles Broker.

Konstantin Kochergin from Vostochny Bank, in turn, notes that on September 25, companies will transfer 390 billion rubles for VAT, 160 billion rubles for excise taxes and 530 billion rubles for severance tax.

If oil prices continue to rise, the dollar-ruble exchange rate may drop to 65-65.5 rubles, Tkachuk believes. Today, the current trading range for the dollar-ruble pair is 65.5-66.5 rubles, for the euro-ruble pair - 77-78.2 rubles, he points out. Leading analyst at TeleTrade Group Artem Avinov, on the contrary, believes that the strengthening of the ruble is temporary, and allows you to get price levels for exiting the ruble into the currency. The main scenario this week, in his opinion, is a return to at least the level of 68 rubles per dollar and to the level of 80 rubles per euro.

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The dollar and the euro remain on the won positions: 69.2 and 80.5 rubles, respectively. This concludes our online, have a good evening everyone.

“We believe that such volatility should not continue for a long time, ultimately, we, together with the Central Bank, have leverage to respond to this situation, including in terms of buying foreign currency for reserves ... This is one of the levers to influence the situation on the foreign exchange market,” — reassures Siluanov.

First Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov considers the ruble undervalued. “Now to talk about what the course will be - we never do this, such forecasting is more detailed. In general, we believe that today the ruble exchange rate is quite undervalued," Siluanov told reporters at a briefing at the Moscow Financial Forum, RIA Novosti reports. According to him, this is due to two factors: expectations of a new wave of sanctions against the Russian Federation and instability in emerging markets such as Turkey, South Africa, Argentina.

The Russians are worried about the crisis in the economy and the decline in production in industry and agriculture (30%), as well as the sharp stratification into rich and poor and the generally unfair distribution of income (30%).

According to the study, Russians are most concerned about rising prices (72%) and poverty (52%). Following are the problem of rising unemployment (48%), corruption and bribery (33%), as well as the inaccessibility of many types of medical care (31%).

Taking the mark of 80 rubles, the euro reached 80.5, but further progress stopped. The dollar is quoted at 69.3 rubles.

Nabiullina also said that the main external risks of the Russian economy are related to oil prices, as well as the normalization of monetary policy. developed countries and geopolitics. “The first two factors are well known and expected. We have taken precautions against them. As for geopolitical events, which include not only sanctions, but also trade wars and potential currency wars, everything is more complicated here,” the head of the Central Bank said. She clarified that such events are less predictable and cause cross-border effects that are often impossible to foresee.

Meanwhile, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, explained why we are so vulnerable. According to her, the Russian economy cannot develop immunity to external shocks, since it is open. According to her, the Russian economy is characterized by a large share of international trade in GDP and an open financial account. In this regard, she stressed, Russia cannot develop iron immunity to external shocks. She stated this at the lecture "Russia's Hard Path to the Inflation Target", RIA Novosti reports.

Kudrin said that there are prerequisites for raising the key rate of the Bank of Russia. “Now, taking into account the increased risks of inflation and the projected increase in inflation next year, as you know, according to official data, up to 4.3%, of course, there are certain risks (of raising the rate)," he said.

Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of Russia Alexei Kudrin said that the volatility of the ruble will continue against the backdrop of tougher sanctions rhetoric. “Volatility will continue, well, high uncertainty. It is also connected with the expectation of a second new round of sanctions against Russia related to cybercrime, and secondly, taking into account new data on the Skripal case: there are expectations that the second stage of sanctions may be painful,” Kudrin said.

The dollar currently costs 69.5 rubles, the euro - 80.6 rubles. Both currencies add more than a percent in price.

In August, inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 9.9% against 9.7% in July, followed from the results of a monthly survey commissioned by the Central Bank. At the same time, inflation expectations of Russians have been growing continuously since April, when they were at the level of 7.8%.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the ruble is extremely unnerving for Russians. 50% of Russians are sure that in a year the ruble will become cheaper against the dollar (a record level of pessimism since January 2016). This was announced recently by the Central Bank, analyzing the inflationary expectations of Russians.

“From a fundamental point of view, at current levels, the ruble is undervalued relative to oil prices and fundamental conditions. However, the current trading is characterized by a relatively high emotionality and it is problematic to talk about the specific dates for the end of the weakening phase of the Russian currency,” sums up Poddubsky.

Today, it is the outflow of speculative capital from the OFZ market that puts the main pressure on the ruble. A similar non-classical reaction of the ruble regarding expectations for a change in the rate has been observed over the past few months, Poddubsky believes.

“Today's weakening of the ruble is taking place in isolation from other currencies of developing countries, which indicates the prevalence of internal stories. It should be noted that today there are noticeable sales in the Russian government debt market - OFZ yields continue to storm new highs amid growing concerns about the possibility of raising the key rate by the Bank of Russia," comments Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank.

"Trading volumes for the ruble remain lower, giving way to the assumption that the current movement is nothing more than a speculative attack or an emotional outburst," Kuptsikevich believes.

“The sell-off in the markets of developing countries continues, having reached the ruble today,” commented Alexander Kuptsikevich, financial analyst at FxPro. - That's a bad signal. If the euro closes above 80, Friday morning promises to start with a big ruble selloff.”

Let's see what happens on the Moscow Exchange. Nothing good. Dollar - 69.34 rubles, euro - 80.54 rubles.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, promised that the volatility that is currently observed is of a short-term nature. He added that the sanctions factor also adds to the nervousness of the market, but his department does not expect serious structural changes in the near future.

So, the Russian Central Bank again resumed buying foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange. Hundreds of billions of rubles of additional oil and gas revenues are sent to the speculative "stove". A striking situation - the president speaks at the BRICS summit about the need to de-dollarize and switch to national currencies in settlements with external counterparties, while the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance direct the money urgently needed to improve the lives of citizens to currency speculation, causing a double blow to the domestic economy.

The first one (the Central Bank) actually withdraws money from the Russian currency jurisdiction. The second (Ministry of Finance), by devaluing the ruble, deals a crushing blow to the purchasing power of the absolute majority of Russian families who earn, spend and save in rubles. What kind of confidence in the national currency in such a situation can we talk about if the state represented by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance is the main speculator?!

In just one day, after a six-day pause, the Central Bank converted more than 17.5 billion rubles into dollars, euros and British pounds. Let me remind you that in August a plan was set for the purchase of foreign currency in the amount of 383.2 billion rubles, which is 35 billion rubles more than a month earlier. To catch up with the planned indicators after a short-term moratorium, the Central Bank needs to purchase foreign currency for 108.7 billion rubles.

This month, it is expected that the inflow of currency on the current account will be from $6.5 to 8.5 billion. In other words, from 70 to 90% of all free currency that will enter the domestic market will be withdrawn into reserves, and not for the development of the country. analysts conclude.

It is not surprising that in such a situation, the banal shifting from the ruble to the US dollar brings a serious income, which is even close to incomparable with other instruments of investment and speculation. Plus, 18% since the beginning of the year were received by those who “stupidly” went to the exchanger and bought an “American”.

Photo: Africa Studio/shutterstock.com

The situation with the Russian currency in the Pronko.Economics program was commented Head of Broker Operations Department, RosEvroBank Evgeny Volkov : “For those who earn and spend in rubles, unfortunately, the picture will not say that it is sad, but it is definitely sad. There are positive, there are negative points for the ruble. If the ruble strengthens, then at the level of 65 it will be possible to buy dollars. However, this fact is hampered by the decision of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to resume buying foreign currency on the domestic market. In this situation, if oil goes to the area of ​​$65 per barrel, then we will see levels of 70-72 rubles per dollar. So far, the resistance level is 69-70. This is a serious level. Therefore, we have 5 rubles for overclocking. 65 below, 70 above. We will walk in this range.”

Famous Russian economist Mikhail Khazin I am convinced that what is happening on the foreign exchange market is a planned action, which is aimed not only at destroying the ruble as a potential investment currency, but has a deep political connotation directed against the president of the country.

Oligarchs against Russia: who "protects" their interests in Moscow?

“The task facing the Central Bank was set by the IMF back in the early 90s, by the Washington Consensus, to prevent the ruble from becoming an investment currency,” Mr. Khazin said in an interview with Tsargrad. - Accordingly, the profitability of foreign exchange transactions should be higher than anything else. This is what we observe.

Also, another thing happened, why now. What prevented this from being done in October, in March? It is clear that before March it was impossible, because there were elections, and this would be perceived as an ideological sabotage. Before the appointment of the government in May, it was also impossible, because this would be perceived as a liberal diversion, and a real change of government could take place. And now it has been done, let's face it, a political two-move.

Its first step is the promulgation of the pension reform. At the same time, the president was persuaded not to speak on this topic, that is, not to say right away: this will not happen. And as a result, the president's rating went down sharply. Most importantly, he left the zone of inaccessibility for political criticism. That is, from the point of view of society, he is now one team with the government, which wants to carry out pension reform. Theoretically, he can still say no, but then it will have to be said very harshly.

And further, after the protection from the president was removed by the pension reform, we give people returning from vacations a price increase in stores by 15-20%. All of our consumer goods are imported. A 12-15% rise in the dollar means a 15-20% increase in retail prices. Let's not forget VAT, another 2%. That is, the people who came, they did not live well, especially if they have children, they came and see a price increase of 20%. And what does the propaganda say? "This is the president." This is a classic political two-move. I do not know who invented it, but it is very well executed. Gracefully."

Mikhail Khazin is convinced that the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance provoke social discontent within the country, and the ruble exchange rate in this regard is an excellent target for provocation.

Meanwhile, for the Russian national currency, events taking place in emerging markets (EM) are of great importance, which are seriously influenced by the ongoing policy of Washington (from the growth of the US Federal Reserve rate to trade wars and sanctions).

Analyst Yevgeny Volkov believes that "if the negative rhetoric grows, there will be new bursts of sanctions, the ruble will very quickly break down the mark of 70-80 rubles per dollar."

Few people paid attention to the fact that three years ago the Ministry of Finance's plans included the level of 68 rubles with kopecks per dollar. Actually, this is where we came from. If you look at the design of 2035, then the dollar is already more than 80 rubles. You just need to carefully read the documents and forecasts of the same Ministry of Finance.

The ruble at the start of trading is trying to win back losses against the dollar and the euro

© Illustration by IA Rosbalt

The US dollar exchange rate for "tomorrow" settlements at the beginning of today's trading on the Moscow Exchange by 10:00 lost almost 6 kopecks by the previous close and amounted to 66.8450 rubles. At the same time, the euro exchange rate by this time had fallen by 14 kopecks to 75.8325 rubles, according to the exchange data.

As Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov notes, yesterday “pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency came from the general strengthening of the US dollar, the continued fall in oil prices, as well as renewed talk about anti-Russian sanctions by the United States.”

“In the evening it became known that the United States is imposing new sanctions against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine. This was stated by the Special Representative of the US State Department for Ukraine Kurt Volker, ”the expert recalls in his review.

According to him, today at the auctions in Asia "oil remains traded in the red." “In 27 trading days, sellers completely blocked the upward movement from $70.28 (August 15). During this time there were no serious rollbacks upwards. The technical conditions for a correction to $76.65 have been met,” Antonov believes.

He states that “the dollar / ruble pair has broken through two resistance levels: 66.37 rubles. and 66.75 rubles. “Buyers headed for 67.15 rubles. The last frontier that is holding them back from a full-fledged bullish rally. An upward correction in oil may hold back buyers and even force them to retreat 66.25 rubles. per US dollar. After 67.15 rubles. buyers open the road to 67.75 rubles. and 68.40 rubles. per dollar. These are the nearest target levels after the completion of the upward correction in oil,” the analyst predicts.

He also points out that "the euro / ruble pair is at the resistance of 76.10 rubles." “Having passed it, buyers open the way to 77.29 rubles. per unit of European currency. As soon as the problem with Italy is resolved (coordination of the country's budget - ed.), then it will be possible to aim at 79.30 rubles, ”adds the analyst.