The primary housing market is currently experiencing a deep crisis: in the first six months of 2016 alone, 1,600 construction companies went bankrupt in Russia, which is twice as high as in the same period last year.

According to the statistics of the rating agency of the construction complex (RASK), about 2,700 developers went bankrupt in 2015. This figure is five times higher than in 2014. Experts gave disappointing forecasts for this year, and it must be said that they are justified.

Why builders are leaving the primary real estate market

The main consequences of developers leaving the market, of course, were an increase in the number of deceived equity holders, an increase in the number of unfinished construction in Russia as a whole. In addition, the volume of housing commissioning decreased due to a decrease in public confidence in shared construction. In terms of demand for primary housing, there is no boom now. Often, developers who have completed construction are faced with the problem of selling apartments in new buildings.

The main reason for the increase in the number of bankruptcies in the construction industry, of course, is the economic crisis. Construction costs become unjustified due to the decrease in the purchasing power of the population. In such conditions, it is most difficult for small organizations to stay afloat, it is their mass exit from the market that we are observing. Large developers adjust their plans, abandon large-scale projects, due to which they continue to function.

Unfortunately, we should not expect an improvement in the situation in 2017. The stabilization of the economy will occur gradually, respectively, and sharp jumps are not expected in the construction industry. As soon as the economy returns to normal and the financial situation of the Russians will allow them to approach the purchase of housing with tolerable financial inconvenience, the number of bankruptcies will be significantly reduced. But this is a distant prospect - perhaps only in the second half of 2017 will positive trends in this area be noticeable.

Bankruptcy law: how is the procedure carried out

The recognition of a construction organization as bankrupt involves the commission by its founders of a number of actions for the effective implementation of the procedure. First of all, the founders should understand that payments on the debts of the organization may go beyond the authorized capital. The fact is that under the Bankruptcy Law, the founders can be involved as subsidiary debtors. Of course, first of all, the CEO of the company is held accountable, but after him they can also turn to the founders. The process of proving the existence of a causal relationship between the actions of the founders and bankruptcy is quite complicated, so the practice of bringing them to subsidiary liability is scarce, but one should be aware of the potential existence of such a possibility.

The first stage of bankruptcy is the supervision procedure. It is characterized by the restriction of the rights of the governing bodies of the organization and its founders. According to bankruptcy law, transactions carried out during the supervision procedure must be agreed with the interim manager. At the same time, the founders retain the right to challenge major transactions and transactions with interest in court. Thus, they continue to exercise a controlling function.

The monitoring procedure entails not only restrictions, but also imposes certain obligations on the founders. So, they need to hold a general meeting in order to resolve the issue of possible ways satisfaction of creditors' claims. This issue is raised before the founders by the debtor's management body within 10 days from the date of the introduction of the monitoring procedure. The effectiveness of the bankruptcy process depends on the decision of the founders, since satisfaction of the requirements of creditors is one of the priority goals of the procedure. The founders can initiate an additional issue of shares, provide financial assistance voluntarily or resort to the help of other persons, apply for the introduction of financial rehabilitation.

The role of the arbitration manager in the bankruptcy procedure

The bulk of participants in a bankruptcy case, as a rule, are creditors. The contradictory interests of the creditors and the debtor would ultimately not have allowed for an effective bankruptcy procedure if there had not been a central figure in the case - an arbitration manager. Bankruptcy is not a typical situation for both creditors and debtors, so the need for a link between them, who has special knowledge in the field of bankruptcy, is beyond doubt.

The recognition of a construction organization as bankrupt involves the commission by its founders of a number of actions for the effective implementation of the procedure

An arbitration manager is a person who monitors the progress of a bankruptcy case at each stage. Talking about bankruptcy construction organizations, it is necessary to single out several duties of an arbitration manager characteristic of this category of cases, which determine its dominant role:

Notification of construction participants about the beginning of a new stage of the bankruptcy procedure;

Notification of equity holders about the possibility of presenting their claims to the developer, as well as the possibility of terminating the contract;

Giving consent in writing for the debtor to perform certain actions (as a rule, it concerns transactions);

Engaging an appraiser to assess the debtor's property, losses incurred by construction participants in connection with the developer's violation of its obligations;

Maintaining a register of creditors;

Opening a special bank account to finance an object of construction in progress upon termination of the powers of the head of the construction organization;

Holding a meeting of construction participants;

Raising before the equity holders the issue of applying to the court with a petition for the transfer of an object of construction in progress or for the transfer of ownership of residential premises to participants in the construction;

Informing construction participants about the features of the creation and functioning of housing cooperatives;

Preparation of conclusions on the possibility of repaying the claims of construction participants by transferring an unfinished construction object or by transferring ownership of residential premises to construction participants;

Carrying out state registration of the transfer of rights from the developer to the housing cooperative;

Transfer of property and liabilities of a bankrupt construction company to a new developer who has expressed a corresponding desire in the form provided for by the Bankruptcy Law.

Thus, the interaction with the arbitration manager on both sides of the bankruptcy procedure is quite close and should remain so.

At the same time, both shareholders and equity holders have the right to apply to the arbitration court with a complaint against the actions of the arbitration manager, which, in their opinion, violates the rights and interests.

What should a shareholder do if the developer is bankrupt

Shareholders, getting into a situation of bankruptcy of the developer, must adhere to the following tactics:

Apply to the arbitration court considering the bankruptcy case with an application for the inclusion of a claim for the transfer of a dwelling or a monetary claim in the register of creditors' claims;

Take an active part in the bankruptcy procedure, that is, attend meetings of construction participants, a general meeting of creditors in order to defend their interests;

Form an initiative group that will defend the common position of shareholders of a particular developer in state bodies, local governments, apply administrative and public levers of influence on the developer, search for qualified legal support;

Use not only basic, but also alternative ways to protect your rights, for example, to be included in the register of citizens whose cash involved in the construction of apartment buildings and whose rights are violated, which exists in every subject of the Russian Federation.

Undoubtedly, the opposition of the interests of the parties involved in the bankruptcy case, including the construction company, creates some obstacles in the procedure. It is important first of all to reach a consensus on each side - this is in more applies to debtors. Only by joining forces, it is possible to achieve satisfaction of their requirements in full. Also, do not neglect communication with the arbitration manager, who is designed to harmonize the relations of the parties in the procedure and make it as efficient as possible.

In general, the problem of bankruptcy of construction organizations is a natural phenomenon for the Russian state, which has gone through such a thorny path of economic transformations in the 90s. Its existence cannot be denied, the only thing that can be done in this situation is to increase the effectiveness of its implementation in order to reduce social tension in society.

Developers believe that certain prerequisites have been created for the recovery of the housing market as early as 2017. The forecast is full of optimism - it is assumed that in the medium term, the volume of residential real estate construction will grow by 5-8 percent per year. Independent experts are more restrained in their assessments. They remind that the market is burdened with many problems that need to be solved urgently.

Meter range

In 2016, 79.8 million square meters of housing were built in Russia. The indicator is preliminary and will be adjusted after all regions report on new buildings put into operation. The final result is expected to be approximately 81 million square meters. Last year's record - 85.3 million square meters - the builders failed to repeat. Thus, the "shortage" will be about 6 percent.

However, this can hardly be called a failure. In August last year, the head of the Ministry of Construction did not rule out that the volume of housing commissioning would not exceed 76-77 million square meters. The grounds for pessimism were strong - in the first half of the year only 31.5 million square meters of housing were built, which is 9.2 percent less than in the same period in 2015. But the builders delivered a surprise, significantly reducing the gap over the past two quarters.

It is possible that now it will be necessary to revise the medium-term departmental forecast, according to which the 81 million square meters should have been reached in 2017. In 2018, it was planned to build 88 million square meters of housing, and in 2019 - 94 million. In the future, the task is to bring this key indicator to 140 million.

Farewell to state support

The termination of the state subsidizing mortgage program, which was announced by the First Deputy Prime Minister on February 1 at a meeting with the President, did not come as a surprise to market participants, of course. “We just sought to ensure that the rate for the borrower was no more than 12 percent. This program has fulfilled its task, we are not extending it now, we hope that during 2017, along with a decrease in the key rate, interest rates of other commercial banks will also decrease. And mortgages will be more affordable for our citizens,” Shuvalov said. According to government calculations, a brighter future will come in 2018, when mortgage rates will drop to 7-8 percent. Developers and ordinary citizens who want to solve their housing problem today live by these promises.

Differences in forecasts

There is no consensus among independent experts as to whether the construction industry is capable of reaching a growth trajectory in 2017. Irina Paruleva, financial expert of ACG Gradient Alfa, believes that in this case it is appropriate to talk about expectations of some improvement in the real estate market. First of all - the primary market. “There are hopes for an increase in demand. In connection with the stabilization in the economic sphere and the emergence of prerequisites for the strengthening of the ruble, it can be assumed that people who have savings in foreign currency will want to transfer them to other assets, and this stimulates consumer demand, including in the real estate market, probably in premium segment as well,” says Paruleva.

The growth of housing construction in the economy segment, in her opinion, will be supported by lending programs. The key rate was reduced in September 2016 by 0.5 percent, and there is hope that this trend will continue. “We have repeatedly heard statements from the pillars of the mortgage market, in particular from, that mortgage rates will be reduced,” recalled Paruleva.

The director of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis does not agree with these conclusions. He draws attention to the statistics of December, when the construction industry recorded a decline of 5.4 percent, while the average for last year was minus 4.3 percent. The volume of construction of individual houses decreased by more than 10 percent, and a decline of about 3 percent was recorded in industrial housing construction.

Nikolaev explains this by a drop in consumer demand, 5.9 percent in 2016, with a maximum in December of 6.1 percent. “Builders entered 2017 with deepening negative processes, despite the emerging positive changes in the economy. Given all this, the next three years to wait for the recovery of the market is not worth it. People are getting poorer, the industry itself continues to be in decline,” Nikolaev sums up.

Partner, Head of Real Estate. Earth. Construction” of the law firm VEGAS LEX recalled the old problems that cannot be solved. The first is bankruptcy. “Unfortunately, there is no escape from this. Both small companies and large players, such as ", are not immune from bankruptcy," the expert stated. Another sore subject is land plots acquired earlier but not used. The laws are such that it is extremely difficult to return them to circulation by transferring them to other developers.

The decision of the authorities regarding the integrated development of territories and the development of former industrial zones is a good signal for developers, Chumachenko believes. In addition, in January a new law came into force, according to which a unified system of cadastral registration and registration of rights to real estate was formed.

Illiquid will leave with a discount

Pavel Bryzgalov, Director for Strategic Development of Federal Grid Company Leader, agrees that the renovation of industrial zones in megacities will help builders. For this reason, he says, there is an increase in supply in Moscow. However, he is ready to consider that the crisis has gone down in history only with reservations. “The effect of a low base is triggered, against which the growth seems to be very large, but, in fact, now the Moscow market is returning to pre-crisis volumes. The Moscow region market is at the saturation level,” Bryzgalov said.

Another important factor influencing the market, in his opinion, is the product transition, the fact that economy and comfort class housing will be built with business class elements. At the same time, developers selling old housing will have to offer it at a serious discount.

Photo: Alexander Koryakov / Kommersant

Vladislav Melnikov, Senior Vice President and Head of the IFC Match Point project, also says that difficulties persist. “The situation on the market of new buildings in the capital is not easy, because everything is complicated by high competition and a large volume of supply. In this regard, one should not expect a sharp or spasmodic increase in prices - the adjustment will be insignificant and progressive, largely due to an increase in prices for building materials," he said.

According to Melnikov, despite the end of the state program to subsidize mortgages, rates in many key banks are already at pre-crisis levels and do not exceed 11 percent per annum. This is the merit of banks and developers interested in the availability of a mortgage loan. Played a role and lowering the key rate by the Central Bank. "If during the year it falls even more, then mortgage rates will also be revised," Melnikov is sure.

It just seems that all the bad things are over. 2017 will not be an easy year for construction companies, the first vice president of Opora Rossii is convinced. “Demand for real estate is still very low, this year it is only stabilizing, but if we are talking about residential real estate, then there may even be another drop due to the termination of state support for mortgages. The collapse is not worth waiting for, since it was in 2015, as well as at the beginning of 2016. There are no prerequisites or even opportunities for a collapse, since there is nowhere to fall lower,” he says.

Seagal also does not expect massive bankruptcies of developers, since the most stable companies that have working projects in their portfolios have remained on the market. However, the financial position of even large developers, according to him, may deteriorate, and not all small companies will survive until the recovery period.

Monthly volume construction works in Russia is still declining, but according to forecasts in the upcoming 2017, this decline will definitely slow down. The fact that this is not a temporary trend is also evidenced by the fact that the “bottom” of the crisis is behind us and the situation will stabilize in the next two years.

housing construction
According to IndexBox, the housing construction market in 2017 will develop under the influence of the following factors: a slight decline in residential construction (-1.5%) and a slight increase in the non-residential segment (+6%). It is important to understand that in 2016 the volumes of decline in both segments reached 16-20% against the forecasted 25%. That is, the actual fall was not as large as expected. Therefore, the expected fall in the real estate segment by 1.5% may actually be a slight increase. In addition, the real estate market will be affected by a decrease in the volume of investments, including foreign ones.

According to experts, the real estate market is very inertial: two years are expected between the peak of the crisis and smooth development. Developers with pain in their hearts recall December 2015, when the primary housing market grew due to a currency shock: citizens who had free funds invested them in the purchase of apartments. Today, most housing construction is carried out at the stage of construction of the upper floors. Having experienced a record volume of housing commissioning in 2015, a stagnation in 2016,
the market will have to roll back in 2017 before the breakthrough. Over the past two years, the state has provided the construction market with a "crutch" - it has become a low interest rate on the purchase of housing under construction. Taking into account the fact that by 2017 the "crutch" is planned to be taken away, a small rollback under such conditions can be considered almost an increase.
It is assumed that without government support, the market will move at the expense of buyers who plan to buy apartments without attracting additional mortgage funds.

Almost half of the investments in Russia are connected with the construction segment, while during the crisis periods the share of investments in construction grows

How about no mortgage?
After lengthy discussions at the federal level, it was decided that mortgage subsidies should not be extended. But! By the end of 2016, rates began to gradually decrease even without “crutches” – thanks to the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank to 10% per annum.

According to the analytical center AHML, at the moment the average rate under the subsidy program is 11.42%. At the same time, the average rate for new buildings without state support is 12.9, for secondary housing - 13.1%. Specialists explain the past reduction in rates by increased competition between banks and the improvement of their financial products by key players in this segment. The rate cut in October set a general trend for the entire market, and in the upcoming 2017 it will only intensify. In addition to lowering interest rates, banks, together with developers, have developed special programs– it is they who will support the construction market next year.
It is assumed that rates will return to the level of 2014, when they averaged 12 to 13% across the country. There are also prerequisites for a larger reduction - for this, a reduction by the Central Bank of the rate by another half a percentage point will be a sufficient reason. AHML also expects further reductions: as the Bank of Russia reaches its 4% inflation target, mortgage rates will continue to decline and may reach 11–11.5% by the end of next year. Mortgage rates are expected to fall below 10% in 2018. However, the agency does not rule out that at the beginning of 2017, a slight increase in rates and their reverse rollback is still possible. Both banks and developers are already aware of this temporary surge. Most likely, they will be offered a “compensatory mechanism” in the form of promotions and special offers.

Popularization of mortgages is one of the tasks of the government. This was stated by Vladimir Putin, summing up the results of the year in the construction industry. The President stressed that mortgage rates cannot be lower than the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, however, there are preferential mortgages in Russia, and the government will strive to spread the practice of supporting certain categories of borrowers

In addition, the promotion of mortgages is one of the tasks of the government. This was stated by Vladimir Putin, summing up the results of the year in the construction industry. The President stressed that mortgage rates cannot be lower than the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, however, there are preferential mortgages in Russia, and the government will strive to spread the practice of supporting certain categories of borrowers.

The President stressed that now the average mortgage rate in Russia is 12.5%, but for beneficiaries it can be reduced to 10.5%, and in some regions even below this level. “The practice of providing support to certain categories of citizens who purchase housing on credit will continue to spread,” Vladimir Vladimirovich emphasized. He also promised to develop a system of rental and service housing in the country.

Non-residential construction
At the end of 2016, the volume of commissioning of non-residential buildings increased by 3%. This defines the trend in 2017, in which the share of agricultural and commercial buildings will increase. If after the 2008 crisis there was a shortage of retail and office space on the market, then in 2017 this demand is fully satisfied, so part of the resources went to the industrial buildings segment, which is generally positive for further economic growth. Counter-sanctions also contributed to this: it was they who created the conditions for the development Agriculture. The construction of social facilities shows a decline, this is due to cuts in budget spending.

If after the crisis of 2008 there was a shortage of retail and office space on the market, then in 2017 this demand is fully satisfied, so part of the resources went to the segment
industrial buildings, which is generally positive for further economic growth. This was also facilitated by counter-sanctions

Almost half of the investments in Russia are related to the construction segment, while in times of crisis the share of investments in construction grows. In 2015–16, almost 12 billion rubles were invested in this segment, which is half of all investments in fixed assets over the same period. It is expected that in 2017 this dynamics will intensify and investments in the fixed capital segment will reach 2/3. On average, investment growth will be 3.8% per year. However, a synchronous reduction in spending in the public sector in 2017 will reach 23% and will negatively affect the attraction of large investment funds.

According to economists' forecasts, in the coming years, starting from 2017, the structure of investments in the Russian economy will change, with about a quarter of the invested funds spent on construction. In fact, by 2019, the construction industry is expected to restore the level of 2014: both demand and supply. And 2017 will be a turning point in this story.

The material uses data from www.indexbox.ru, www.dom.rf, AHML, http://www.sberbank.ru

NB-HELP

JSC "Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending" (AHML) - established by decision of the government of the Russian Federation, 100% of AHML shares belong to
Government Russian Federation represented by the Federal Agency for State Property Management.
In 2015, on the basis of AHML, a single development institution in the housing sector was created. It included subsidiaries of AHML: OJSC AFZhS, OFO SK AHML and the Housing Development Assistance Fund (RHD Fund).
On September 1, 2016, the RHD Foundation was liquidated, its functions were transferred to the Unified Institute for Development in the Housing Sector.
Among the tasks of the Unified Institute for Development in Housing
reducing risks in the housing and mortgage market, stimulating the construction of affordable housing, developing mechanisms for financing engineering infrastructure facilities, implementing anti-crisis support measures in the housing and mortgage market. In addition, its tasks include the development of the rental housing market by attracting collective investment and the comprehensive improvement of the urban environment.

Project idea. For more than 15 years, conducting daily monitoring and studying in detail the Russian economy and its individual segments, INFOLine specialists came up with the idea of ​​creating a unique product - a comprehensive line of studies of the main industries of the Russian Federation. Analytical materials include the dynamics of the development of industries over the past 5 years and development prospects for the next three years in the following areas:

• "Construction industry of Russia";
• "Transport industry of Russia";
• "Agro-industrial complex of Russia";
• "Food industry and food market of Russia";
• "Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia";
• "Food Retail and Consumer Goods Market in Russia";
• "Non-Food Retail and the Russian Consumer Goods Market".

The studies were created according to a single methodology and structure, which allows not only obtaining detailed data within one industry, but also analyzing and comparing the development indicators of industries with each other.

ATTENTION! The studies are published in an innovative format for a convenient electronic presentation: this is the optimal format, which, in addition to textual material, includes a large amount of graphic material (figures, diagrams, tables), as well as hyperlinks to the most important regulatory documents and company websites.

Relevance of the study “Construction industry in Russia. Prospects for development in 2017-2019”. The construction industry in Russia is going through one of the most difficult periods in its history. By the 90s of the XX century, the country gained high momentum in construction: in 1987, 72.8 million square meters were commissioned. m of residential real estate, and after 13 years, the volume of housing commissioning has more than halved - to 30.3 million square meters. Then, after overcoming the consequences of the economic crisis of 2009, the demand for housing increased significantly, and the development of mortgage lending stimulated an increase in sales of high-rise housing: in 2014, 84.2 million square meters were put into operation. m of residential space, and in 2015 - 85.3 million square meters. m, which was the highest figure in the history of Russia. After a record volume of housing commissioning in 2015, a decline began, which amounted to more than 6% in 2016 and will continue in 2017. Similar trends are observed in non-residential construction, where the only segment with positive dynamics of investment and commissioning of facilities is the construction of buildings and structures for the agro-industrial complex. In order to understand why the construction industry is again experiencing a recession and how deep it will be, we conducted a comprehensive study of the industry, affecting all its segments. With the help of the proposed product, you can compare the dynamics of development and indicators of your company with industry indicators and indicators of leaders, evaluate the participants in the rating of the largest companies in the industry and determine priority areas for business development.

Research objectives:

• analysis of the state of the construction industry as a whole and individual segments by types of objects (housing, industrial, infrastructure, commercial construction);
• formation of a rating of developers in terms of housing commissioning, a rating of retail real estate developers;
• identification and description of the largest ongoing investment and construction projects by industry segments;
• description of the most important events in the construction industry in the context of market segments, companies, types of objects, as well as the stages of implementation of the development cycle;
• analysis of changes in state regulation of the industry (adoption and entry into force of key regulatory documents);
• analysis of the development dynamics of the building materials industry (piece wall materials, non-metallic materials, cement and others) and investment projects in the building materials production segment;
• development of a scenario forecast for the development of the construction industry and the industry of building materials.

Directions for using the results of the study: marketing and strategic planning. For a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry and the building materials industry, as well as for benchmarking and competitive analysis of companies.

Time frame of the study: dynamics of various indicators of the industry since 2011, general national and regional statistics in 2016 (the volume of commissioning of residential and non-residential real estate, infrastructure facilities, basic indicators of the construction industry, the volume of production and sales of building materials), development prospects in 2017-2019. (macroeconomic indicators of Russia, implementation of investment projects, changes in the regulatory framework).

Terms of the study: II quarter 2017.

Research Benefits. In the study, in addition to a detailed analysis of the development of the industry, you will find:

• leading industry ratings formed by INFOLine analysts:
  • rating of the largest developers in the residential real estate market INFOLine BUILDING RUSSIA TOP;
  • rating of the largest owners and developers shopping centers INFOLine DEVELOPER RUSSIA TOP-10;
  • description of the largest ongoing projects in residential construction (including projects for the integrated development of territories and the construction of new urban agglomerations);
  • description of the largest ongoing projects in infrastructure construction;
  • scenario conditions and forecasts for the development of the construction industry;
  • information on the dynamics of production and sales of building materials by years, including the reasons for the sharp increase in the production of non-metallic materials in 2016.

Tasks and structure of the study by sections:

Part I. Main indicators of the construction industry: analysis of the volume of construction work, the commissioning of residential and non-residential buildings, indicators of mortgage lending, lending to construction companies, the dynamics of their business activity.

Part II. Key industry events: coverage of changes in the legislative sphere in the construction industry, events in the field of state support for the industry, tracking major mergers and acquisitions in the field of construction and production of building materials, important resignations and appointments.

Part III. The main indicators of segments of the construction industry: description of the state of all areas of the industry (housing, industrial, infrastructure, commercial construction, production of building materials).

Part IV. Prospects for the development of the construction industry: description of scenarios for the development of the construction industry until 2019 and forecasts for the development of the construction industry and the building materials industry.

Work experience and references: INFOLine has been implementing commissioned surveys for clients and has been publishing initiative surveys on the construction market since 2010. Our regular customers are more than 100 construction and investment companies, as well as companies participating in the building materials market, including the largest developers and construction companies (IKEA Mos, Adamant Holding, Glavstroy Corporation and LSR Group), leading manufacturers of building materials (KNAUF, Eurocement , HOLCIM Group, LAFARGE, Pobeda LSR, Wienerberger Brick, Severstal-Steel Solutions, RUUKKI Rus, PSK Pulkovo, Samara Plant Electroshield), financial companies (Sberbank, Alfa- Bank, VTB).

Information sources:

• data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Agency for Construction and Housing and Public Utilities, the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation, the UN foreign trade database, the portal of the Presidential Administration, data from the Housing and Communal Reform Assistance Fund farms;
• INFOLine database on the topics "Investment projects in the industrial construction of the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in the transport infrastructure of the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in the civil engineering of the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in the engineering infrastructure of the Russian Federation"
• other INFOLine products: "2000 shopping centers in 30 largest cities of Russia", "Metal structures market of the Russian Federation", "Cement industry of the Russian Federation", "Production and consumption of crushed stone in the Russian Federation", "Production and market of silicate and ceramic bricks", "Construction industry of Russia »;
• data of the largest construction companies (website materials, press releases);
• materials from more than 5,000 Russian media (federal and regional press, news agencies, electronic media), as well as industry press.

How will the domestic economy behave in the coming year? Possibly unpredictable...

Another year of crisis is coming to an end. What will 2017 be like? Opinions differ. Some believe that recovery growth will begin, others that the economy will continue to stagnate. With the help of experts, we will try to figure out what awaits us.

Optimists from abroad

This may surprise some, but foreign organizations are optimistic about the Russian economy: they predict growth with a spread of 0.5 to 1.5%.

Experts from the World Bank are most optimistic: according to their estimates, it will grow by 1.5%. This will happen, first of all, due to the growth of consumer activity, lower inflation and increased investment, world bankers believe.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is more pessimistic: OECD experts predict growth of only half a percent. The factors are about the same: an increase in consumer demand and investment.

The IMF forecast is plus 1.1%. This result should be influenced by growth in consumer demand, improved conditions for domestic financing and stabilization of oil prices.

Standard & Poors forecast for 2017 is plus 1.4% to GDP. S&P analysts find three positive factors: a moderate increase in oil prices, an increase in its production and an increase in household consumption.

The Moody’s agency also made a generous forecast: it “gave” the Russian economy 1.5% growth. According to its analysts, no new external shocks are expected, investments will grow, the quality of assets in the banking system will improve, and the policy of import substitution will bear fruit.

However, the prospects for the economy and domestic structures are positively assessed. Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation believes that it will grow by a modest 0.8%. According to officials of the department, this joyful event will happen due to the growth of exports and an increase in stocks.

In the base scenario of the Bank of Russia, economic growth fluctuates in the range of 0.5-1%. In many respects, the Central Bank attributes this future merit to itself, indicating that this result can be achieved through its successfully pursued monetary policy. The Central Bank also hopes for an increase in consumption and investment activity.

Deep structural crisis

A much more pessimistic view is taken by independent Russian experts. For example, the director of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis Igor Nikolaev that the analysis carried out by the organization headed by him allows us to conclude: in 2017, GDP will not grow, but will decrease by 1%.

There are a number of reasons for such pessimism. The decline in real incomes of the population continues, which makes the growth of consumption unrealistic. The negative dynamics of investments in fixed assets persists - it is associated with an uncertain economic and geopolitical situation.

According to FBK analysts, hopes for the growth of oil prices are unfounded: the super cycle of high prices has ended, and there are no factors indicating a reverse trend. The sanctions, which are unlikely to be lifted in 2017, make it difficult for Russian companies to access the market for cheap foreign financing. And if so, then there is no reason to hope for economic growth.

But this is rather a superficial layer of events. However, they also have a deeper subtext. A deep structural crisis persists in Russia. High oil prices made it possible to neutralize its impact, but with low quotations for raw materials, the question inevitably arises: is growth possible in principle?

The structural crisis is caused not only by the Soviet legacy, but also by other reasons. Igor Nikolaev lists the main ones: the wrong economic and social policy of the last period, the delay in urgent reforms, the resource-based nature of the economy, and the low share of small and medium-sized businesses.

Without structural reforms, there is no hope for change. But the government does not call overcoming structural imbalances the main task. economic policy.

“With a structural imbalance, the economy adapts to the situation, in some cases even some growth is possible, but it is not able to get out of the crisis,” sums up Igor Nikolaev.

The middle development trap

Pessimistic about the future and the Deputy Chairman of the Board of VEB Sergei Vasiliev. In his opinion, we expect stagnation for a period of 3-5 years. There is no getting out of it without an increase in investment, so you need to think about where to get them. But so far, the authorities have not shown positive thoughts on this matter.

In order for investments to appear, an adequate financial system must be built in the country, reminds Mr. Vasiliev. There is a lot of money in the economy, but there are not enough effective mechanisms for converting it into capital investments. Banks are mainly engaged in short-term lending, non-state pension funds are blocked by the latest decisions.

However, there is hope that if inflation falls, the investments of the companies themselves will increase. But if there is no capital flow, then the opportunities for investment growth will be very limited.

And Russia's investments are badly needed to overcome the middle development trap that the country has fallen into. Its essence is that the transition from traditional industrial development to innovative development is overdue, which will inevitably be followed by an increase in labor productivity.

This development is accompanied by an intensive flow of labor, an increase in the range of manufactured goods, primarily innovative ones.

According to Sergei Vasiliev, it is wrong to say that the government does not understand this challenge - it is making efforts to create a new economy. But in the best case, results can be expected no earlier than four years later.

Viable economy

The most surprising thing about the Russian economy is its vitality, says the head of the Center for Economic Policy Research at the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University Oleg Buklemishev. Whatever is done to it, it adapts to its environment. This happens, first of all, at the expense of the sector of small and medium-sized businesses.

And this is not the first time this has happened. After the default in 1999, the IMF predicted a 10 percent decline. And the economy went up. Then the government Primakov-Maslyukov nothing began to break, and the business believed in its prospect.

The current government, according to an expert from Moscow State University, is deliberately ruining the economy.

— The economy has reached the limits of its development, — emphasizes the economist. - And that part of it, which can be called alive, rests on state policy: freezing pension savings, high lending rates. As a result, there is no long money.

In its current design, the economy has passed its peak. Even to achieve 2% growth, major changes are needed.

“In general, it’s time for us to understand that in the current conditions, forecasts about whether the economy will grow a little or fall a little do not make sense,” the former Russian Minister of Economy is convinced Andrey Nechaev. “The goal is to achieve at least 4 percent growth. It is real, but with the implementation of a large program of reforms.

The new reality of the construction complex

The construction industry is of particular importance for the economy. Almost two-thirds of our investments in fixed capital are connected with construction. However, funding sources will change. As experts expect, the value of own funds will increase due to a decrease in the attraction of credit sources. The importance of such factors as profitability and payback periods of projects will greatly increase.

In the residential construction sector, the decisive factor is demand. And it largely depends on the state of mortgage lending. According to the CEO of AHML Alexander Plutnik, there are large reserves for lowering interest rates. With us, only 20-25% of the total amount of the loan goes to builders - the rest ends up in the pockets of intermediaries.

Meanwhile, mortgage lending is a huge reserve for the development of the construction industry. Mortgages have grown 22 times since 2004! No other segment of the country's economy has demonstrated similar results.

But it is very important to achieve a reduction in interest rates, emphasizes Alexander Plutnik. Each point of their decline increases the number of potential borrowers. By the end of 2017, the average loan fee may drop to 10%. And at a rate of 9%, in a few years, the annual commissioning of housing can reach 100 million square meters. m.

Much here depends on the Central Bank, on whether the regulator will be able to cope with inflation and reduce the key rate. But it is equally important to improve the very mechanism for granting loans: this process should be rid of unnecessary intermediaries.

At the same time, the economy as a whole remains in an uncertain state. As Igor Nikolaev summarizes, hopes for a revival of consumer and investment demand are based more on the desire for this to happen, and not on objective prerequisites. And in the conditions of all the disproportions in the Russian economy, with relatively low oil prices and the preservation of sanctions, a transition to growth, alas, is not to be expected.

It seems that everything is logical and correct. But let us recall that the economy often behaves in a way that none of the analysts predicted. She has such an unpredictable personality.

Vladimir GURVICH