Poklonskaya will replace Medvedev? Why Putin is delaying Medvedev's resignation Who will be the chairman instead of Medvedev

The real or alleged resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018 has repeatedly been the focus of media attention, latest news on this topic today are connected with the long absence of the Russian prime minister at public events. Has the head of government really left his post?

Disappearance of the Prime Minister

The Prime Minister has not appeared in public or on television since 14 August. On that day, he met with Andrey Travnikov, the acting governor of the Novosibirsk Region. And this is the last public event to date, in which the prime minister took a personal part.

His disappearance for such a long period gave rise to speculation about the resignation of the second person in the state. The most logical and harmless version that Dmitry Anatolyevich is on vacation has not been confirmed.

There is evidence that his work schedule for the period from August 14 to 24 is quite tight, and there were important events, meetings that had to be canceled.

Thus, the last meeting of the Security Council, held by the President on August 22, was held without the participation of the prime minister. Permanent members of this body, ministers and heads of structures directly related to issues of state security met in Sochi. The Prime Minister, contrary to custom, was not among them, he did not participate in the discussion of the current socio-economic situation, the state of Russian-American relations and the situation in Syria.

It is interesting. One of Medvedev's last public appearances was an official visit to Kamchatka, during which he held a meeting of the regional commission and visited a black volcanic sand beach.

A jar of sand, on which the prime minister allegedly walked, was put up by one of the residents of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky for an online auction for 100,000 rubles.

Short May resignation

The topic of the resignation of the current prime minister and his government is raised not for the first time. The message that Putin fired Medvedev, which appeared on one of the Internet news portals on April 1, 2018, was doubtful due to the date of publication. However, many readers did not take it as a joke at all, but responded with comments in the style of "it's high time!".

It should be noted that petitions demanding the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev have been appearing on the Internet for a long time, they are created by different users, addressed to the President, the Constitutional Court, the Federal Assembly, they announce the collection of signatures:

• Alexander Li's petition was created 2 years ago, collected almost 300 thousand signatures, after which the collection was closed;
• Yevgeny Kleymenov created the petition 4 months ago, the collection of signatures continues, so far only 111 have been collected;
• 4 weeks ago, another petition appeared, created by Georgy Fedorov and caused a more noticeable reaction, it has already been signed by almost 16 thousand people.

Perhaps back in April, the Prime Minister decided to heed the voice of the people, perhaps the President elected for a new term, indeed, expressed his dissatisfaction with the activities of the Cabinet. But the April Fool's joke turned out to be prophetic: on April 11, speaking in the Duma with a report on the work of the government, Medvedev announced his intention to resign after the inauguration of the President. By the way, that report caused another wave of discontent and claims against the head of the current government: too much in it was untrue.

On May 7, Medvedev's resignation was accepted, but the President immediately invited him to head the new government. The very next day, his candidacy was put to a vote in the Duma, and 374 deputies spoke out in support of extending the powers of the prime minister. Representatives of the Communists and A Just Russia opposed it, but their votes did not play a decisive role. Thus, Dmitry Medvedev again became the head of government, and his resignation lasted only 1 day. And now, recently, the possible resignation of Dmitry Medvedev is again exaggerated in the media. Is it true or not that the prime minister resigned? And what explains his unusually long absence from the screens?

Secret Revealed

In fairness, it should be noted that the Prime Minister did not stop working at all, he simply temporarily refrains from participating in public events. He continues to send official telegrams, new posts appear on his behalf on Facebook. Recently, Medvedev, on behalf of the Russian government:

• congratulated opera singer Bela Rudenko on her jubilee;
• expressed his condolences on the death of Kofi Annan;
• congratulated Sergei Rumas, head of the Cabinet of Ministers of Belarus, on this appointment.

And on August 23, the press service denied rumors about the resignation of the head of government, explaining the temporary decrease in his activity as a result of a sports injury. Dmitry Medvedev, indeed, is fond of badminton, perhaps it was during one of the training sessions that an injury was received, which now does not allow him to hold public events and take part in them.

However, there is another version of events. The popularity of the government declined sharply after the adoption of the pension reform. In particular, economist-analyst Mikhail Khazin said that after this reform and the devaluation of the ruble, the Medvedev government is living its last days.

There is evidence that in the near future Vladimir Putin plans to announce the easing of the law on pensions, to act as a "good tsar" who corrects the mistakes of the "bad minister".

And the rumors about the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018, which are fueled by the latest news, are most welcome today. They prepare the ground for the speech of the President. In the meantime, the press service promises that already on August 27 the head of government will return to his duties in full.

MOSCOW, April 26 - RIA Novosti. The chances of the current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to keep the post are quite high, but there are other contenders for the premiership, but the final decision still remains with the president, State Duma deputies interviewed by RIA Novosti believe.

Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on State Building and Legislation Mikhail Yemelyanov (Fair Russia) told the agency that the deputies would most likely approve the prime minister's candidacy the day after the president's inauguration.

There are no forecasts - the decision is up to the president

Many of the parliamentarians interviewed by RIA Novosti preferred not to make predictions about the new head of government and urged to wait for the president's decision. Thus, the Vice Speaker of the State Duma from United Russia, Olga Timofeeva, stressed that the appointment of the prime minister is the prerogative of the head of state.

The same point of view is shared by the first deputy head of the "United Russia" Andrey Isaev, who also said that it is necessary to wait for Putin's decision.

The head of the Committee on Labor, Social Policy and Veterans Affairs, Yaroslav Nilov (LDPR), did not give a forecast on the appointment of a new prime minister, but admitted that the president's decision could be unpredictable.

“I know that the president’s personnel approach is based, among other things, on the principles of unpredictability, and a variety of decisions can be made here. And it also depends, I think, on the international situation,” Nilov said.

Medvedev's chances

Deputy Chairman of "Fair Russia" Mikhail Yemelyanov considers Medvedev's chances to remain prime minister quite high. As the parliamentarian explained, he draws such a conclusion based on the mood of the political elites, Medvedev's frequent appearance in the media space, his confident and calm behavior.

“I estimate the chances quite high for a variety of reasons. There are many signs that Medvedev will stay.<…>If we talk in general about the face of the future government, then, in my opinion, it will be determined not so much by who will be the prime minister, but by who will be the minister of finance, the minister of economic development, because it is these two ministries that hinder Russia's economic growth" Yemelyanov said.

Chairman of the Development Committee civil society, issues of public and religious associations Sergei Gavrilov (KPRF) also believes that Medvedev will retain his post. And another representative of the Communist Party, Nikolai Kharitonov, found it difficult to answer the question about the candidacy of the prime minister, but noted that the population expects changes in the socio-economic situation from the new head of government.

"It's hard to say who this candidate will be. The President is well aware that 76% is a colossal support and at the same time the confidence of people who are waiting for changes in the socio-economic situation.<…>And how, what figures, faces will be displayed or this will be a permutation, but then the sum will not change from a change in the places of the terms. So I think he's in a lot of thought right now.<…>Because people are waiting. People are waiting and wanting change," Kharitonov said.

If not Medvedev

Yemelyanov, in particular, believes that alternative candidates for the post of prime minister may be people who have dealt with issues of the real sector of the economy, who are able to solve the problem of the country's economic development.

“If we talk about alternatives, then I would think that, based on the tasks that the president sets, the government should be headed by a person who dealt with the problems of the real sector of the economy. There are such ministers,” the parliamentarian said, listing the candidacies of the Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Minister of Construction and Housing Mikhail Men, Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev.

In his opinion, they all know about the problems of industry and agriculture and solve them contrary to "the policy pursued by the financial and economic bloc of the government."

Speaking about Medvedev's future outside the government, Yemelyanov suggested that he could take a position in the judiciary, in particular in the judiciary.

“In my opinion, Medvedev as a lawyer would be very good if he got into the judiciary, perhaps there is not enough of him.<…>As for the economy, this is not its strongest feature," the deputy believes.

The number of negative political assets is growing at an unplanned pace.

Let's start, however, with the first. Has Medvedev really become a burden on the regime?

There is no doubt about this. The Levada Center poll that excited him (45% of respondents are in favor of resignation, 33% are against) is very close to the information from the weekly reports of the near-Kremlin FOM in all the main parameters, including the distribution of answers to other questions. All "Medvedev's" indicators are deteriorating there with each new measurement, and the proportion of those who believe that the prime minister "does not work well at his post" since mid-April exceeds the number of those who believe that it is "good."

Medvedev has never been perceived by our public as an independent figure. He shone with reflected light, and fluctuations in his popularity indexes always followed fluctuations in Putin's. Perhaps this is the case even now. Putin's indices are also declining. But they still remain in the plus zone, while Medvedev's have moved into the minus one.

The prime minister's reaction to the video "He's not Dimon to you" confirmed his lack of any political qualifications and simply the ability to take a hit. Until recently, the universal helplessness of the head of government created an atmosphere of comfort for Putin, but today it is desirable that people in his circle show other qualities to the people. There is not the slightest hope that Medvedev will find them. It has become an obvious political burden, which, with a strong desire, can, of course, be carried further, but it would be more logical to throw it off your shoulders.

However, the logic of the highest decisions cannot be so straightforward.

Who will replace Medvedev? Another figurehead? But premieres of the caliber of Mikhail Fradkov looked like something normal in a completely different time. The reaction from below, and not only from below, to someone strange and weak is now completely unpredictable, and instead of defusing it, it can also increase tension.

And the elevation of a person perceived as a strong figure to the prime minister is too similar to the appointment of an heir. So, at least, this will be understood and even, perhaps, interpreted as Putin's most important strategic decision over the past ten years. Too risky and does not increase comfort.

You can, of course, choose the golden mean, and appoint some technocrat programmed for so-called unpopular measures as the first minister, in order to later please the people with his shameful expulsion. But events can easily get out of control. The system is rusted and is capable of crumbling from any shake.

No less important is the fate of the so-called Medvedev government. “So-called”, because it is not one structure, but several departmental alliances, and they are not at all led by Medvedev, but partly by Putin, and partly they operate autonomously, both on their own and in the interests of competing lobbying teams.

But although the prime minister is only a symbol of the government, his political disappearance would call into question all these intertwining ambitions, established management practices and hard-won balances.

Does Putin, for example, want the “economic bloc” to fall (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and related departments, which, although with difficulty, work in conjunction with the Central Bank, nominally not part of the government)? After all, he is ideologically close to them, albeit not on all counts. It is not for nothing that connoisseurs of economic history recognize Putin as a spontaneous adherent of mercantilism. There was such a doctrine in past centuries that it was prescribed to accumulate monetary reserves in the treasury, prevent the import of goods, rely on state business and not allow a large excess of expenses over income.

The ideas of the “economic bloc” about what it would be desirable to do are somewhat more sophisticated, but in fact it is pursuing just such a course. Which pleases the leader, but is not very popular in court circles, where many magnates feel left out, and at the same time irritates the people more and more, as the burden of the austerity regime has been shifted to him.

They say that United Russia will praise Putin at the May Day events, expressively silent about both Medvedev and the government, and the state-owned trade unions working with it will begin to defame the “economic bloc”. The suspended state of the Deputy Prime Minister is already being used with might and main by the fighters for tidbits in the executive branch without any go-ahead from above.

Raising this insignificant person in ancient times, Vladimir Putin, of course, did not imagine that the system would spontaneously turn him into his most important node, the replacement of which promises so many problems, and, moreover, at the most inopportune time.

Sergei Shelin