How much will the ruble fall in a year. Experts: They will try to carry out the devaluation of the ruble without panic. The consequences of the devaluation of the Russian ruble

When respectable men in suits talk about devaluation and inflation on television, the Russian audience is divided into three main groups. The former begin to panic and chaotically think about where to put their savings, because there was already a savory experience in 1998 and 2008. The second, having no family and gold reserves, believe that they have nothing to lose. A third, very small group believes that the situation is under control of the authorities and is about to improve.

Which of them is closer to the truth?

What is devaluation in simple terms

All states take part in trade operations in the world market. To simplify the system when making transactions, the partners set the standard of a convertible currency, for Russia this standard is the US dollar and the euro.

Previously, before the “gold standard” was abolished, the devaluation of the ruble was considered to be a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to gold. Now the situation has changed.

Another significant change occurred in the fall of 2014. Until that moment, the value of the ruble was regulated and fixed by the Central Bank (CB) of Russia, but now the domestic currency is deprived of this support.

Many Russians who are not professionally connected with the economy confuse devaluation with default and denomination.

I must say, these concepts are completely different, so:

1. Devaluation today is considered to be a decrease in the value of the ruble against the currencies of other states.
2. Denomination is a change in the number of zeros on a banknote, which Russians faced in the nineties of the twentieth century.
3. Default is a more critical situation in which the state is unable to fulfill its financial obligations, including external debts.

The reasons for the depreciation of the national currency may be different. These include the weakening of the economy, as a result of natural disasters, sanctions, warfare, that is, an increase in government spending that is no longer covered by income.

There is another situation: the state deliberately lowers the value of its currency, which allows you to get a significant profit from the export of goods. For example, the price of oil in dollars has dropped significantly, but since there are now more rubles in dollars, the change in this price in rubles is not so significant.

Thus, devaluation can be beneficial to the state.

Will there be a devaluation in 2019

Together with the Russians, citizens of other countries are also asking this question, out of sympathy or for a completely opposite reason. So far, no one can give an unequivocal answer with an absolute guarantee, however, the months that have passed since the beginning of the year show actual indicators.

As the graph shows, the exchange rate of the American currency is highly dependent on sanctions coming mainly from the United States. The strongest speculative factor is the restriction on the purchase of government debt for US companies. In other words, the popular “carry trade” strategy of buying Russian for dollars and getting a decent return by world standards may cease to exist due to legal restrictions. All this encourages foreign investors to sell Russian bonds, buy dollars and withdraw them from our securities market.

Most analysts consider investments in the Russian economy as quite risky investments, which means that the outflow of capital from the country will continue to some extent.

To be or not to be devalued in the current year depends on many factors:

• outflow of capital from the country;
• oil prices;
• the imposition or lifting of sanctions;
• Fed (Federal Reserve) rate adjustments;
• the conduct or cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and the degree of participation in these events of our country.

It is unlikely that anyone will take responsibility for accurately predicting these turnarounds, but if they are not in a positive direction for Russia, it will be impossible to count on stability, and even more so on the appreciation of the ruble.

I must say that devaluation is not a one-day process, which means that it will not be possible to solve the problem in one day. According to experts' forecasts, sharp fluctuations are not expected this year, although in the event of new oil price drops, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 100 rubles.

How loans will be issued

According to professionals in the field of economics, this year one more reason for the devaluation will be added: an outdated banking system which needs to be corrected. One of the main banking issues of concern to the population is the possibility of obtaining loans.

In times of fluctuations in the value of the ruble, the population is afraid to trust their savings to banks, as a result of which there is a withdrawal from circulation Money and the resources available to banks are noticeably scarce. These events lead to certain changes in the lending system.

Last year was definitely difficult for the Russian economy, which inevitably affected banks and financial institutions. Many of these institutions have not been able to stay afloat during the crisis, and as a result, the number of organizations providing loans will noticeably decrease in 2019.

In this regard, the following changes are expected for borrowers:

1. Raise base rates and percent.
2. Inclusion of a number of commissions for issuance and service.
3. Age category of borrowers (in some organizations, applications from clients will be considered only after they reach the age of twenty-five).
4. Voluntary-compulsory insurance of loans.

It should be noted that the demand for loans will also decrease. Not everyone will risk burdening themselves with such obligations in such an unstable period.

With the lifting of Western sanctions, it will be quite possible to count on the loyalty of banks.

Learn about the denomination or devaluation of the ruble from the video.

How to save money during currency fluctuations

To preserve savings in the current difficult circumstances, analysts and economists recommend shares of companies producing exports, precious metals, real estate and foreign currency.

Many experts consider it promising to spend capital on opening a well-planned and well-thought-out business, since the number of competitors will noticeably decrease at this time.

A detailed study makes it clear that with devaluation, import prices rise, and the demand for domestically produced goods will increase accordingly.

Imported cars, electronics, household appliances will rise significantly in price, so it's time to spend the savings accumulated for these purposes. Only without fanaticism, because many people remember how in 2014 panicked people began to buy useless things in unnecessary quantities, and then did not know how to get rid of them.

Today, “multi-currency” accounts are very popular, the owners of which have the opportunity to transfer their savings from one currency to another, with a favorable exchange rate.

The consequences of the devaluation of the Russian ruble

Probably, everyone is familiar with the situation when you really want something, and a person, succumbing to temptation, makes an unplanned expensive purchase. Then, for a certain time, he has to deny himself something, restoring the family budget.

The same is happening with the state budget, which has a gap and it will take time to patch it up.

The devaluation effects could be compared to two sides of a coin if it had different sides.

So the negatives are:

1. Increase in prices for goods and services at the same wages.
2. Loss of confidence in the weakened ruble.
3. Devaluation of bank deposits.
4. The increase in inflation.
5. Decreased purchasing power
6. Unemployment. After all, many enterprises use imported raw materials, equipment, materials, but due to the rise in price they will be forced to reduce or completely stop their activities.

You should also not forget that when a person does not have enough money, he often begins to take bribes and steal. This means that the likelihood of an increase in the level of crime and corruption is high.

And now for the good:

1. Stimulation of domestic production and import substitution.
2. The development of tourism in Russia, as Holidays abroad will become an expensive pleasure.
3. If you refuse to import, more money will remain in the state treasury.

Even a child, counting the points, will notice that the negative consequences prevail.

Possible scenarios and expert forecasts

As for Russian analysts and experts, the forecasts here are very diverse, and mostly short-term. Even the most experienced specialists find it difficult to predict events for the second half of this year and next year.

Head of Ministry economic development, Alexei Ulyukaev, believes that this year the dollar will be valued at around 63-64 rubles.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's forecasts are not so optimistic: he predicts a collapse of the Russian economy and a decline in the standard of living of the population. Economists Vladimir Tikhomirov and Nikolai Salabuto agree with him, expecting the dollar to rise in price to two hundred rubles per unit.

The well-known economist Mikhail Khazin predicts the collapse of not only the Russian, but the entire world economy and banking policy.

On one point, the opinions of domestic experts are similar: everything will depend on the price of "black gold", around which the Russian economy is currently revolving.

The depreciation of the ruble is reflected in the economic situation of our neighbors and partners. In Belarus, the ruble is also devaluing, despite the assurances of President Lukashenko that there will be no devaluation in the country this year.

However, experts and analysts have a different opinion. The dependence of Belarus on Russia is obvious, because our country is the main buyer of Belarusian exports, and if their ruble is more stable than ours, trade will simply become unprofitable for Russians, and Belarus risks losing a partner.

In addition, the rise in the dollar rate is dictated by world oil prices, which the government of Belarus is unlikely to be able to influence.

Another factor is the impending denomination of the Belarusian ruble, and it is not known in which direction prices and salaries will be rounded, which means that people are worried and begin to withdraw money from bank turnover and hide it in stockings. As mentioned above, the withdrawal of money from circulation is one of the causes of devaluation.

All experts are sure that devaluation of Belarus this year cannot be avoided, but sharp fluctuations are not expected. Bankers and financiers fully agree with them.

So what determines the exchange rate of the ruble

The exchange rate of the national currency is influenced by a combination of the following factors:

1. Stable political situation in the country, attracting partners and investors.
2. Trust in the national currency, both the local population and foreign citizens.
3. Development of production, industry and agriculture.
4. Oil prices on the world market.

Based on this list, a lot still needs to be done in our country, which means that all Russians will have to work hard.

In contact with

Recently, Russian citizens have been extremely concerned about their financial condition. Assessing the current state of the country's economy, experts say that devaluation in the new year 2019 is still worth waiting for.

At the moment, it seems that the rate of the domestic currency against the dollar is at a fairly stable level. But under the influence of a number of factors, such as, for example, sanctions, conflict situations in foreign policy and the expansion of the territory of the state in recent years, the decline in the price and volume of oil sales - the indicators may deteriorate significantly.

The decline in the cost of "black gold" provoked the introduction of new rules, according to which, by selling a barrel of oil for $40, the Ministry of Finance will buy currency for the entire amount of proceeds.

In addition, from January 15, the Ministry of Finance is expected to resume market purchases of foreign currency to replenish the National Wealth Fund under the budget rule. This has always led to a weakening of the ruble, and in 2019 this cannot be avoided either. In his statement, timed to raise key rate by 0.25%, the Central Bank says this in plain text.

People would do well to start monitoring the filling of their wallets and pockets already now. And it’s better not to delay the processing of loans or credit cards, after all, with devaluation, rates on them will only grow.

Ruble devaluation what is it

First of all, we will explain to you what devaluation is. in simple words. Generally, ruble devaluation- this is a decrease in the real exchange rate against the background of hard currencies (dollar, euro). It is considered an instrument of central banks, as it is the exact opposite of the process of ruble appreciation (revaluation).

There are open and hidden devaluations. The first one is officially announced by national banks, but the second one is not, because in this case we are talking about a depreciation without withdrawing money from the general currency turnover.

The official devaluation of the ruble in Russia was observed twice. For the first time it became a consequence of the default in 1998. Then the exchange rate against the dollar fell by 246. Much smaller indicators of the fall in the rate of the domestic currency were traced in 2008. Then the ruble collapsed by 30%.

The devaluation of the ruble in 2019 slowed down a bit, but continues to worry the population. At times, we even have to say that already this year the authorities will begin a manual fourth devaluation, because a stable ruble today may be unprofitable for higher-ranking individuals and structures.

Official forecasts of the ruble exchange rate

The forecast exchange rate of the ruble, first of all, is displayed in the Strategy for the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It states that in 2018 the ruble exchange rate will be 64.9 rubles per dollar, and in 2019-2020 the ruble will weaken to 68-69 rubles per dollar.

But as we know already in August 2018, the exchange rate was already 66.89 rubles. From this we can conclude that the official forecast is not particularly accurate.
Other forecasts take into account capital outflow and policy Central Bank and not just falling oil prices. Suppose the Ministry of Finance does not expect major fluctuations in the exchange rate. However, with a planning horizon of more than 10 years, the accuracy of the forecast is low. Every year, information about the forecasted ruble/dollar exchange rate changes and is highly dependent on market conditions, so you should not rely on it in your decisions and it is better to take it as a reference.

But we want to note that not only official bodies make a forecast of the ruble exchange rate. For example, Sberbank also makes forecasts, but its accuracy is beyond last years was even lower than official sources. His assumptions that the weighted average exchange rate of the ruble in 2018 will be 58 rubles per dollar were dispelled already in the second quarter of 2018. Needless to say, the bank’s forecast that the exchange rate will be 58.5 rubles in 2019 does not hold water at the moment? In reality, the ruble/dollar exchange rate has always turned out to be significantly higher than official forecasts.

Expert opinions

Experts and market participants, in contrast to official sources, assess the situation on the market a little more correctly and their forecasts are usually more accurate.

For example, the lead analyst at Amarkets, Artem Deev, stated that

As for the prospects for the national currency for 2019, given the expected resumption of the decline in oil prices, as well as a new round of Western sanctions aggression, the devaluation of the ruble is almost inevitable. Most likely very soon new reality for the exchange rate there will be quotes above 70 rubles per dollar "

Vladimir Tikhomirov, Chief Economist financial group BCS believes

The stabilization of the economy, noticeable in recent years, is only a temporary phenomenon. The negative political and foreign economic situation will lead to a further fall in the economy and the national currency.

Denis Poryvai, Raiffeisenbank

The domestic currency in 2019 is expected to devaluate.

Very often, experts notice that if oil prices remain within $50-$60 per barrel of Brent brand, and the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance begin to buy foreign currency massively, then the dollar will go up, and will not even go up, but will fly up to the level of 75-77 rubles per dollar.

In addition, experts note the outflow of capital and investment. For example, for November 2018, the data is simply shocking - capital outflow has already exceeded last year's volume by 3.3 times (in just one month), with a total outflow of 2 times more than in the previous two years.

As can be noted, the experts did not come to any unified decision regarding the ruble.

Ruble and real estate

As you know, a change in the exchange rate cannot bypass any sphere of life of the country's population. Naturally, the processes of devaluation will not bypass the real estate market. Rumor has it that the fall of the ruble by at least 5% compared to the current rate will lead to a sharp rise in prices for apartments, houses, and so on.

The devaluation of the ruble will also change the lending system. Along with monetary growth, there will also be an increase in the percentage of credit. Therefore, if your profit is not measured in hard foreign currency, it is worth putting off borrowing money.

How not to become a victim of devaluation

You can save your pockets from the monetary panacea described above by resorting to the following methods:

• focus on natural hedging (it is worth bringing the currency in a single denomination and it is desirable that they be represented by foreign banknotes);
• always make financial reservations (negotiate with clients / creditors about possible actions in case of an increase in the rate of the domestic currency in comparison with the hard one);
• Organize yourself
• convert available funds into fixed denominations;
• acquisition of shares of certain enterprises, organizations, and so on;
• purchase of investment fund securities;
• purchase of precious metals
• (a stable and safe haven for savings, especially worth considering now if you have been postponing for a long time)

So, devaluation is a complex process, which is extremely difficult to understand, but it should be done in order to protect yourself from unnecessary monetary losses. Be vigilant and don't let currency games empty your pockets.

The growth of oil quotes supported the positions of the ruble. In the second half of the year, the Russian currency continues to strengthen, but this trend may stop in the near future. Moreover, experts allow a new period of ruble devaluation in 2017 in Russia, if events develop according to the most negative scenario.

The position of the optimists

The current sanctions and the collapse in oil prices were reflected in the rapid devaluation of the Russian currency. During the crisis, the ruble depreciated significantly, which helped reduce the shock to the economy. Next year, nothing threatens the positions of the ruble, officials are sure. Stability in the foreign exchange market will be ensured by the increase in oil prices and the resumption of growth in the domestic economy.

According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average exchange rate in 2017 will be 67.5 rubles/USD. The Russian economy has gone through a period of recession and is moving towards gradual growth. In addition, the stability of the ruble will be linked to the dynamics of the oil market.

The next year's budget includes the cost of oil at $40 per barrel. At the same time, analysts believe that the average annual prices for "black gold" will be able to gain a foothold in the range of 50-55 dollars per barrel, which will provide the budget with additional revenues.

Morgan Stanley spokesman Andrew Sheets emphasizes that the ruble has not yet exhausted its potential for strengthening. In addition to the favorable situation on the oil market, the dynamics of the Russian currency will be linked to the policy of the Central Bank. The regulator is in no hurry to increase the supply of ruble liquidity, which strengthens the position of the ruble. In addition, the performance of the US economy does not allow the Fed to raise the discount rate, which is reflected in the value of the dollar.

Depreciation of the dollar next year is predicted by representatives of VEB. Under the most optimistic scenario, currency quotes will reach the level of 60 rubles / dollar.

Oil market trends remain unstable, which creates a threat for further devaluation. Pessimistic forecasts of experts allow for a significant weakening of the Russian currency next year.

The threat of devaluation

A new collapse in oil prices will result in a significant devaluation of the Russian currency, experts predict. If the cost of a barrel drops to $25, then the dollar will reach 90 rubles/$, according to Bank of America representatives. Analysts of Raiffeisenbank agree with this forecast, allowing the ruble to weaken to 95 rubles / dollar.

Alfa-Bank believes that the value of the Russian currency will avoid sharp fluctuations. However, the ruble will continue to lose its positions, reacting to the consequences of the economic crisis. As a result, the average annual dollar exchange rate will be fixed in the range of 70-75 rubles/dollar.

Another factor that could lead to a new period of devaluation is the budget deficit. According to the results of the current year, the expenditure side will exceed receipts by 3.9%, the Ministry of Finance predicts. As a result, the burden on the Reserve Fund increases. There will be no fundamental improvement in the situation next year, and this year's trends will remain unchanged.

The budget deficit will be above 3%, and the reserves of the Reserve Fund will be completely exhausted. In addition, the government plans to use part of the NWF funds to finance budget expenditures. Another 1 trillion rubles. will be raised through internal borrowing.

This situation leaves very little room for maneuver, experts say. Next year, officials plan to conduct a full-fledged indexation and make a one-time payment to pensioners. However, any deterioration in the external environment will jeopardize the implementation of the authorities' initiatives.

Given this situation, the government may weaken the position of the ruble, which will affect the increase in budget revenues. As a result, the budget deficit will be partially financed with the help of share premium.

Additional problems for the ruble next year may be related to the growth of geopolitical tensions. Western countries have returned to the discussion of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which is associated with the development of the conflict in Syria. The parties cannot agree on a joint action plan, which could lead to negative consequences for foreign exchange market. New restrictions will be a blow to the economy and put pressure on the position of the ruble, analysts say.

The dynamics of the ruble in 2017 depends on the state of the economy, oil market trends, budget indicators and geopolitical tensions. The optimistic scenario assumes further strengthening of the ruble, as a result of which the dollar exchange rate will reach 60 rubles / dollar.

The pessimistic forecast assumes a new stage of devaluation. As a result, the value of the Russian currency will fall to 70-75 rubles/dollar, and in the most negative scenario, to 90-95 rubles/dollar.

Recent years for the Russian currency were not the best. This was due to several internal and external reasons. Economic from former partners and strong dumping on the black market. As a result, the national currency depreciated greatly.

But today, despite the shaky price of black gold, the Russian ruble is slowly starting to recover and strengthen its position. And this is a very good signal for people. Ahead is the new year 2017, and there will be two decisive factors for the strengthening of the ruble. The first is the cost of oil and gas on the world market. And the second is the ability of the Russian economy to restore its growth.

Why the Russian currency is depreciating

Everyone knows that the value of any national currency is determined by several parameters. This is the political "weight" of the country, the ratio of exports and imports of products and the presence of a gold reserve, which reinforces the amount of money issued.

At the moment, there are several reasons that affect the depreciation Russian ruble.

The first is the Central Bank of Russia, which stopped supporting the national currency and let it float freely. Due to this decision, the ruble began to fall rapidly in relation to. And the subsequent attempt to artificially strengthen it brought even more harm.

The second is a decrease in political influence and prestige Russian Federation on the world market. The main problem is that our country is associated with all the negative processes that are taking place in the neighboring state. As a result, sanctions were imposed and many foreign investors were banned from working in Russia. In connection with such actions, the domestic economy and products became inaccessible to foreign capital, in turn, this led to the outflow of currency from the country.

And the third is the ratio of goods that the country produces and those that it sells on the domestic market. It's no secret that our state buys more products abroad. good example can serve as shelves in stores. They host about 70% of imports, which are purchased for foreign currency. So it turns out that the need for foreign currency is higher than for native rubles.

Forecasts of devaluation of the Russian ruble in 2017

What will happen to the ruble next year? For our compatriots, this is an extremely important issue. Many people are tired of being dependent on the price of oil and dollars. They want to live in peace and not worry about the future of their family. Given that carefree times are in the past, the most acute question remains what awaits people tomorrow.

It would seem, where does the currency, if buyers buy goods for rubles. But the fact is that Russia is heavily dependent on goods produced abroad. And all the products of foreign manufacturers have to be bought for foreign currency.

If we take into account all the data about the country's economy, the conclusion is obvious. The fall of the ruble may continue further. It is also important that the government has developed a set of specific measures that will help contain the level in the country.

At the same time, many experts, having analyzed the situation with the ruble, came to the conclusion that 2017 could be the beginning of a recovery for the Russian economy and the strengthening of the national currency.

There are several development scenarios, namely:

Positive

If we trust the positive forecasts, then Russia is on the right track, which will lead to exchange rate stability and the start of economic recovery. At the same time, some analysts doubt this forecast for several reasons. First of all, after the lifting of sanctions, Iran entered the world market with colossal reserves of black gold. And this is a direct confirmation that the price increase will not happen.

alarming

At times, our country is disturbed by collapses in the black gold market. This is the main problem, which indicates that in the near future the problems will only worsen. An important fact is that the leadership does not always act reasonably in relation to the strengthening of the national currency.

Summing up, the conclusion is the following. In 2017, the ruble will continue to fall against other currencies. Naturally, this development of the situation worries the average citizen with an average income. But do not forget that these are only assumptions.

Realistic

As described above, the main problem that hit the country's economy is the sanctions and the low price of black gold. If we soberly assess the situation, it becomes clear that economic restrictions on the Russian Federation will not be lifted yet. And if there is an aggravation all in the same Ukraine, then they can still strengthen it. Since the restrictions remain in place, this is not entirely positive news for the ruble and for the Russian population.

As for oil prices, experts predict that in 2017 the cost of BRENT oil will be at the level of $50 per barrel. When the optimal price for ours is $90 per barrel. This is well above the predicted prices. Which can mean only one thing: next year there will be a budget deficit again. And even if the economy grows, one should not expect a miracle in this area, since growth will be minimal.

In any case, the Russian population does not lose optimism. And the opinions of analysts, even authoritarian ones, do not always mean they are right. Looking to the future, it is difficult to predict what the ruble will do. However, many people admit that the standard of living in our country is much higher than in other countries of the former union. So, the measures taken by our government are giving a positive result. The most interesting thing is that half of the people surveyed in our state want to start their own business, despite the difficult moments for the country.

We will not use smart terms as an information weapon, but will try to explain in the most ordinary words the content of the phrase, which is familiar to many not from textbooks, but from their own lives or the lives of their parents, and this phrase does not evoke positive emotions, and some even perceive it as a nightmare . So, what is ruble devaluation plain language?

On February 6 of this year (2017), the Ministry of Finance began to acquire foreign currency. On this occasion, the phrase appeared in the terminology of the economic establishment "new budget rule» , which means the purchase of foreign currency with funds that are an additional income of the country.

Purpose of buying currency

Purchases are made:

First of all, as opposed to the natural strengthening of the Russian currency, since its weakening is now more needed;
Secondly, to maintain budget expenditure items in the planned volume. The new rule should act as a safety net (a kind of financial airbag).

How are these actions related to the devaluation of the ruble?

The very fact of supporting the weakening of the national currency suggests a decrease in its exchange rate, which is technically associated with devaluation, but let us mention that one should not be afraid of the term itself. But first things first.

The Ministry of Finance plans to purchase approximately $100 million daily within four weeks (plus two days) - exactly thirty days. During this time, according to forecasts, the amount spent will amount to just over 113 billion rubles - funds that will replenish the country's budget pocket from the sale of oil and gas in February and early March. The Ministry of Finance explains that the replenishment is made from additional income received from the difference between the actual cost of the sold oil and gas package in Russia and the price planned for these hydrocarbons in the budget, the so-called cut-off point. The goals for buying currency are the most good - replenishment of the Reserve Fund. The budget funds will be kept in British pounds, European currency and US dollars.

Now the most interesting thing is the devaluation of the ruble in simple words

The facts of the purchase of currency by the state occurred before, but how do they combine with devaluation? If the value of money changes, then the use of the term is quite acceptable. However, in our country, where in the recent past, just from certain financial manipulations carried out by state institutions, citizens experienced the most unpleasant consequences, which also called devaluation, then money suddenly became empty shells, you should not use this word, terrible for people, without additional explanations.

People do not believe without looking back in the statements of the Bank of Russia or the Ministry of Finance, so the phrase devaluation of the ruble should be used more carefully and always with additional explanations. It's all about the brightness of the term, the negative attitude of citizens towards it, and the desire of economic writers to show off a strong word. Let's clarify the terminology, this is necessary for an unambiguous understanding of the meaning of further statements so that there are no discrepancies.

What is ruble devaluation and revaluation?

Vocabulary S.I. Ozhegov clearly explains the meaning of the term Devaluation, there are two of them:

1) Withdrawal from circulation of banknotes that have lost solvency and replacing them with others, more capacious (in fact, erasing zeros).
2) An official statement about the depreciation of paper banknotes in circulation.

Both meanings are directly related to the monetary reform, in modern reality, the devaluation of the ruble, as a reform, is out of the question at all.

Last two years without purchase

Over the past two years, the purchase of foreign currency was not carried out, the ruble was put into the so-called "free swimming". And it all started with the fact that oil prices sank, at the same time there was an information humiliation of Russia, which invariably destroyed the state currency. In other words, such events could not but affect the ruble - it has noticeably fallen in price, that is, its purchasing power has decreased. Thus, a situation quickly developed where one could shout loudly "there was a devaluation of the ruble", but such cries for some reason did not spread. Although comparing the viability of the Russian currency in early 2015 and early 2017, it can be argued that 2015 has the right to bear the title of the year of ruble devaluation, and 2017 has not reached such a status and, perhaps, will not reach it.

A few supporting facts:

1. The US dollar at the rate of the Central Bank cost:

For 30 days of the beginning of the 15th year, the ruble "lost weight" more than 12 rubles.

2. 2017 The same dollar, according to the announcement of the Central Bank of Russia, “weighed”:

January 2 - 60.65 rubles,
February 2 - 60.30,
February 8 - 59.19,
February 10 - 59.02.

Ruble revaluation

From the above data, it can be seen that during the indicated time of the beginning of 2017, the ruble only strengthened, which, in fact, is a revaluation movement, that is, a movement in the opposite direction from the decrease in solvency.

Is the current devaluation of the ruble a myth?

Now financial experts believe that through the purchase of foreign currency by the main financial institution of Russia, there will be no sharp change in the exchange rate, and that the rise of the American currency even by two rubles, to the level of 61 rubles, may take several weeks. Thus, ruble devaluation today it's easy does not exist, and talking about the regulator's attempt to keep the exchange rate, which is beneficial for the Russian manufacturer and the economy as a whole, as a devaluation, is nothing more than a call to psychosis among the masses. Yes, the technical state, called devaluation, will manifest itself after some time, but talking about it a lot and loudly is dangerous, just remembering how the population relates to this term.

When the planned movement of the ruble towards weakening nevertheless begins, it is logical to either refuse from the terms that cause distrust of the people, or to explain their meaning more intensively and talk in more detail about the related events taking place now. Although it seems that pessimistic economic oracles and sellers of reactionary news cannot help but use loud expressions that people perceive negatively.

The Ministry of Finance began to take the first steps aimed at preventing the domestic currency from strengthening. The devaluation of the ruble, of course, will occur, but not as a terrible and dangerous monster for the wallets of Russians, but as an ordinary profitable and desirable process for the country's economy.
Quite simply

Strengthening of the ruble- the process of changing the price of the ruble against the dollar. Let's say the initial position is 60 rubles per American dollar, then the cost goes down to 58 rubles per dollar, this process and the very fact of the decrease are called the strengthening of the ruble.

What will happen with a strong ruble, and what with a weak one?

1. Strong ruble.

The strengthening of the ruble is undesirable for domestic goods, because then they will begin to rise in price (in dollar terms) and in value will begin to approach the goods of Western countries. At the same time, all Chinese goods will become cheaper, and we ourselves will begin to strive to buy them, abandoning our own, which in such a situation become unprofitable.

Filling the budget with ruble mass may become insufficient and lead to difficulties in fulfilling social obligations.

2. Weak ruble.

On the contrary, with a weak ruble, our goods are beneficial both for us and for foreigners, who are more willing to buy cheaper (Russian) than the same, but more expensive (their, foreign). With a weak ruble, Russian goods become more profitable than Chinese goods for the Russians themselves.

Budget programs are being implemented without additional funds, and the Reserve Fund is being replenished.

Now the weak ruble is profitable

You don't have to be an academic to understand that the current state of affairs, when the dollar is worth more than 60 rubles, is beneficial for the domestic economy, and therefore for all citizens of Russia. Under these conditions, the task of bringing the value of the Russian currency closer to the level of 65 rubles per dollar looks extremely important. Some experts (Andrey Lyushin - Loko-Bank) are confident that the Russian currency will not be able to get close to the target level until mid-summer.

Budget rule and budget law

The weak exchange rate of the domestic currency makes it possible to increase ruble incomes, however, they cannot go to the budget.

The fact is that for the next three years there is a law regulating the work of the budget, which provides for a deficit of 2 trillion 750 million rubles for 2017 and stipulates that the budget deficit will not be replenished with additional revenues arising from the sale of oil and gas. True, the amount is slightly more than 1.7 trillion. rubles can be received from independent funds. The Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, mentioned in his speech at the public council that the Ministry of Finance would use the resources of the Reserve Fund, but this is only a partial infusion, in general "budget rule" this issue is not resolved.

The mechanism for transferring funds from the Reserve Fund to the budget is still unclear, and what it will be like now can only be assumed. There are two options:

a) The Bank of the Russian Federation will buy the currency from the Ministry of Finance,
b) it will be put on sale through the open market.

If the Bank of Russia makes a purchase, the weakening of the ruble as a goal will be achieved, but not a single expert undertakes to predict how fluctuating the weakened exchange rate will be, whether its movement will lead to undesirable consequences.

If the currency enters the market, then there are fears that the ruble will begin to strengthen, which is not at all desirable.

However, back to the question above, ruble devaluation. In a situation where the purchase of foreign currency for the Reserve Fund has already begun, and its use has unanswered questions, one can only guess how people who have a prejudice against devaluation will behave. Won't they begin to act as unpredictably as the ruble exchange rate, won't a chain reaction then arise with an unknown heating point?

Ozhegov's dictionary defines two types of devaluation, but do not forget that they still differ in form:

one open,
The second is hidden.

Hidden devaluation occurs without announcement, characterized by the depreciation of money that continues to be used as a means of payment. Ruble devaluation, which occurs in the most explosive form, is fresh in the memory of the people. I would like to hope that the process of the weakening of the ruble, which is now necessary for the economy of the state, will be predictable, and the ill-fated devaluation will be mild, not creating upheavals in people's heads.

Solovyov on the devaluation of the ruble: