The continued depreciation of the Russian ruble is beneficial. All to exchangers? What can Belarusians expect from the fall of the Russian ruble. How the fall of the Russian ruble will affect the Belarusian economy

The United States imposed new economic sanctions against Russia, and this was instantly reflected in the course Russian ruble. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in two days the dollar and euro rates in Russia rose by several rubles. The crisis instantly spread to Belarus: the dollar and the euro also began to grow, while the Russian ruble is falling - both relative to them and against the Belarusian ruble.

What this can lead to and how it will affect the Belarusian economy and ordinary Belarusians, explains a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosub.

How the depreciation of the Russian ruble affects the exchange rate of the Belarusian

A strong fall of the Russian ruble leads to a standard and instantaneous reaction of the Belarusian foreign exchange market - the dollar and the euro grow against the Belarusian ruble, while the Russian ruble falls. So it was yesterday, and we see the same picture during today's trading. In terms of the currency basket, the Belarusian ruble is strengthening. And all because the Russian ruble in the currency basket takes 50%, and the fall of the Russian ruble against the Belarusian one outweighs the growth of the dollar and the euro.

How the fall of the Russian ruble will affect the Belarusian economy

If the fall of the Russian ruble against the Belarusian one continues, both the Belarusian economy and the Belarusian currency market. Most of the Belarusian export goes to Russia, from "milk" to dump trucks. The fall of the Russian ruble against the Belarusian ruble makes Belarusian products more expensive and less competitive on the Russian market.

But if the fall of the Russian ruble stops in the near future, there may not be any global consequences for the Belarusian economy.

Is the depreciation of the Russian ruble beneficial for ordinary Belarusians?

If the depreciation of the Russian ruble continues, a situation similar to the one in 2014, when Belarusians went to Russia for "cheap" cars and electrical equipment, may arise. True, in 2014 this pilgrimage of Belarusians to Russia began after the Russian ruble fell by more than 30% against the Belarusian one. Now, following the results of two days, the Russian ruble fell by 4% against the Belarusian one.

What is the best currency to keep your savings in?

After Russia became the target of sanctions in 2014, it became clear that the Russian currency is a risky object for savings. Today we have additional confirmation of this. Therefore, it is better to keep the deposit in Belarusian rubles, and divide the cash between the dollar and the euro.

Should we expect further depreciation of the Russian ruble

It is likely that today the fall of the Russian ruble will stop. And from tomorrow, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble may stabilize - both against the dollar and the euro, and against the Belarusian ruble. But there is also some uncertainty due to the sanctions: it is known that new sanctions are already being actively discussed due to Russia's involvement in chemical attacks in Syria. And the future of the Russian ruble depends on the level of sanctions - whether they will be "plush" or as effective as Friday's.

Will the National Bank regulate exchange rates if the fall of the Russian ruble continues

This is unlikely. We have a "floating" rate, and its peculiarity is that the market will balance and correct itself. If the Russian ruble collapses sharply against the Belarusian one, the Belarusians will increase the demand for the currency in order to buy in Russia. Currency inflows from Russia will continue, and the Belarusian ruble will already begin to fall relative to the Russian ruble, equal to it. At the same time, the growth of the dollar and the euro will continue. The same thing happened at the border of 2014 and 2015.

Last Monday gave the Russians a new anti-record fall of the ruble. For the first time in two and a half years, the euro cost 81.87 rubles, the dollar - 70.5. The next day, the situation improved slightly, and the Minister of Economic Development even tried to reassure citizens with a forecast that by the end of the year the dollar would return to 63.9. What happens to the national currency?

For example, since April, the exchange rate of the Russian currency has been constantly falling against both the dollar and the euro. Such a spectacular fall was achieved by adding two factors - and sanctions have nothing to do with it.

Firstly, almost all emerging markets showed depreciation of national currencies in the same period as the ruble. This was due to the fact that international investors began to massively go to the dollar. In addition to Russia, the currencies of Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, India and especially Turkey weakened. Even the euro has suffered as a result of fluctuations in world markets, but this currency is so powerful that the changes have gone almost unnoticed.

Secondly, there is now a serious change in the vector of monetary policy in Russia. Previously, the Central Bank did not interfere in the market, and in case of a strong fall in the exchange rate, it tried to stop this process by selling dollars from reserves. Now the Central Bank, on the contrary, is actively buying them in order to depreciate the ruble. So the current situation with the ruble was created absolutely intentionally in order to increase the budget surplus. Putin's May decrees need money.

Photo: Sefa Karacan / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images

By themselves, these decrees simply help to allocate funds between people close to the Kremlin. These people put pressure on the Ministry of Finance, demanding to show the sources of the money. And the budget surplus due to the low exchange rate of the ruble has become one of these sources. In addition to it, the list includes an increase in taxes, expressed, in particular, in an increase in VAT, and a reduction in social guarantees in the form of an increase in the retirement age.

All this seems to be for a long time, because the rates in the American market are rising, and the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System is being deliberately reduced by the Americans themselves. And this means that the amount of money in the market will decrease and investors will get rid of falling currencies. This can end up taking months or even years.

Approximately the same time forecast can be given for the new policy Central Bank on the deliberate weakening of the ruble. It would be more difficult to strengthen it, because this would require dollar reserves, which are limited, unlike the ruble. It can be printed endlessly.

There will be no return to fundamental positions (58-61 rubles for 1 dollar): it simply does not benefit anyone

There are no signs that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank intend to abandon such a strategy in the long term, although buying dollars has stopped in the short term. As a result, the market itself began to play against the Russian national currency: many domestic investors who held positions in rubles began to exit them. And this mass exit worked instead of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, which eventually had to stop in order to prevent catastrophic consequences.

Now the fall, I repeat, has stopped. And, perhaps, somewhere on the sidelines of the two departments, a decision will still be made to buy a few rubles in order to balance the situation. However, there will be no return to fundamental positions (58-61 rubles for 1 dollar): this is simply not beneficial to anyone.

Will the government be able to contain the depreciation of the ruble? Of course, yes, because it also caused it! But the measures will affect only a sharp collapse, but a further decline will occur for a long time. After all, it is beneficial for the budget and for the largest exporters - the most important producers of GDP and taxes in Russia.

The consequences of the depreciation of the currency are not unambiguous. At first glance, the fall of the ruble is bad - inflation is growing, citizens are getting poorer, and imported goods become unavailable, especially when their analogues are not produced in our country. But the situation is not so unambiguous for some, there are pluses from the devaluation.

1. Exporters

The weaker the ruble exchange rate, the more profitable it is for those companies that sell something abroad. It is not so important here - raw materials, grain or something else. The fact is that export earnings are formed in foreign currency, and exporters pay overhead costs (for example, salaries) and company taxes in rubles. Often Russian companies begin to sell their products abroad much cheaper than their competitors and win back markets. With the low exchange rate of the ruble, they can afford it and at the same time remain in a big win.

Another bonus for such companies is the growth in the value of their shares. Investors, anticipating profit growth, begin to invest in exporting companies.

2. Local producers

A weak ruble is beneficial for exporters and equally disadvantageous for importers. When the ruble fell in early 2017, imports of many goods fell by 30% or more. The import of clothing, many household goods, food products, electronics and other goods to Russia has decreased in almost all commodity groups. However, some domestic enterprises see this as an opportunity to win back the market from foreign counterparts. A good example of this is import substitution in the food industry. Producers of products, following the rise in prices of foreign analogues, are increasing production. There is a similar potential in the Russian textile industry, but not everyone is able to realize it. True, consumers are not always happy about this - for them, the choice is narrowing.

However, devaluation for local producers is a double-edged sword. If companies take loans in foreign currency, lease equipment or buy raw materials abroad, then they may not feel a positive effect. In addition, the inevitable rise in prices may reduce demand, so that not all local producers will be able to benefit from this.

3. Budget and government

When the ruble weakens, more money comes to the budget. The effect is twofold. On the one hand, with a weak ruble exchange rate, we are increasing the export of hydrocarbons, and we get more money from taxes on them. Russian companies receive income in dollars, but pay taxes in rubles - it turns out that they will be able to give the state more money.

On the other hand, a weak ruble provokes an increase in domestic prices, due to which more such large tax items as excises, value added tax (VAT), income tax, profit tax and many others enter the budget. Thus, devaluation is a quick way to replenish nominal budget revenues and fulfill your social obligations. The Ministry of Finance also forms savings in dollars, so it is directly interested in the weakening of the ruble. These funds can later be used for the implementation of large production projects, the department said.

But here, not everything is so smooth. After all, budget expenditures are also increasing, and a decrease in consumer demand due to high prices can greatly slow down the economy. Thus, a short-term positive effect may have much more unpleasant consequences in the future, for which citizens will pay.

4. Hotels and domestic tourism

When the ruble falls sharply, many citizens look at the price tag of tour packages and decide to spend their holidays at home. Unfortunately, on a normal course, our resorts rarely boast the same price-to-service ratio as Egypt, Spain or Turkey. Therefore, for them, the fall of the ruble is a chance to remove competitors and lure new customers. The situation is similar with travel agencies that organize tours in Russia.

Here, however, there is also a controversial point. With devaluation, the real incomes of citizens fall, and many may not go anywhere on vacation at all.

5. Depositors and holders of currency

The obvious advantage is for those who keep money in foreign currency. When converting their savings into rubles, they will receive more money.

There is a certain plus for those who keep money in rubles. The weakening of the ruble provokes an increase in inflation. She, in turn, forces the Central Bank to raise the key rate. Against the backdrop of growth key rate, banks also raise their own rates on deposits. However, the risks of holding money also increase. If the state does not control the devaluation and cannot keep it, then putting money in the bank will become much more dangerous.

Some countries purposefully use the depreciation of their currency to stimulate the economy - this is called "controlled devaluation". However, in essence, the economic growth in this case, the population always pays.

The depreciation of the ruble brings a lot of trouble - imports become more expensive, foreign holidays - inaccessible. However, a number of Russian industries, thanks to the growth of the dollar, received 700 billion rubles of additional income, emphasizes Andrei Belousov, aide to the President of the Russian Federation. Who benefits from the depreciation of the Russian currency?

The devaluation of the ruble amid the intensification of the sanctions war against Russia by the United States is unpleasant for ordinary citizens. Imported goods and holidays abroad are becoming more expensive, salaries do not have time to grow following the fall of the Russian currency. However, for many, a 20% depreciation of the ruble - from 57 to 69 rubles per dollar - this year becomes an extremely profitable event.

Additional income of a number of industries from raw material exports due to the weakening of the ruble is estimated at 700 billion rubles, said Andrey Belousov, aide to the President of the Russian Federation. “An increase of 10 rubles per dollar that we received during the year, and today our exchange rate, as you know, is in the region of 60, 67, 68 rubles, so this increment gave in relation to the volume of raw material exports last year without the participation of oil , gas and coal and, of course, mechanical engineering, metallurgy, additional revenue of 700 billion rubles,” Belousov said after a meeting with business. Belousov, however, hopes that the business will not use all this excess income for dividends, but invest in real development.

First of all, the Russian budget benefits from a weak ruble, and gets a double bonus from a combination of expensive oil and a cheap ruble. The fact is that the expenses in the budget are made up on the basis of a lower oil price (50 dollars) and a higher exchange rate of the ruble (61.5 rubles). In reality, oil is trading around $78 per barrel, and the dollar is close to 68-70 rubles. “The Russian budget for 2018 has a base price of 3,500 rubles per barrel. Now the Russian budget receives 5,000 for every barrel,” says Tamara Kasyanova, First Vice President of the Russian Club of Financial Directors. Moreover, the ruble price of a barrel of oil for the first time in history exceeded five thousand, having increased by a third since the beginning of the year.

Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Russian budget is in surplus, no. Moreover, it was initially drawn up with a deficit of 1.3% of GDP, but by the summer it became clear that there would be a surplus of at least 0.5% of GDP, and most likely even more.

Interestingly, not only Russia, but all emerging markets faced currency devaluation. The Turkish lira, the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, and the South African rand weakened against the dollar. Yes, and the Chinese yuan went down, however, this currency stands apart, because its exchange rate determines after all National Bank China. In such a situation, in fact, any of these countries can become a new hotbed of crisis. Russia, on the other hand, looks very good against the general background, because high oil prices, coupled with devaluation, allow both the budget and the current account to remain in surplus. Not to mention the fact that Russia has a low public debt and has accumulated solid gold and foreign exchange reserves.

The Russian industry also receives a huge bonus due to the weak ruble. Export products become more competitive in price in foreign markets, which leads to an increase in export volumes, especially in ruble terms. Past years have already proven beneficial for Russian economy from devaluation coupled with sanctions. Moreover, not only raw materials, but also non-primary exports grew - by 19% in 2017. Sanctions, on the one hand, reduced the trade turnover between Russia and the West, but on the other hand, they gave impetus to the production of new types of industrial products within our country.

“To the greatest extent, in the long term, a weak ruble is beneficial to industries that are aimed at exports, but are not heavily dependent on imports of components or fixed assets. These are the industries in which Russian technological developments are not inferior or weakly inferior to foreign ones and thus minimize dependence on the purchase of equipment or components for foreign currency,” says Zhannur Ashigali, Deputy Director of the ACRA Research and Forecasting Group.

Because a weak ruble may interfere with the implementation of investment programs that involve the purchase of imported equipment, notes Anastasia Sosnova from Freedom Finance Investment Company.

For those who spend little on imported raw materials and supply products for export, the current situation is a real paradise. For example, for manufacturers of plastic, wood and rubber products.

In general, not only the oil industry and Gazprom benefit, but also the metallurgical and chemical industries (the cost is ruble, but they sell products for foreign currency). Growth drivers are also agro-industrial enterprises, especially grain exporters. The latter may harvest less this year because of the weather, but earn more profit.

“In order to minimize currency risks, the largest representatives of these industries prefer to attract debt denominated in the currency of proceeds. Thus, with the devaluation of the ruble, the cost price in foreign currency terms becomes lower and the so-called excess income is formed, ”explains Mikhail Tkach, Leading Analyst for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA.

This year, world prices for products from the primary industries are at a comfortable level for producers, so the devaluation of the ruble is not a lifeline, but rather an additional guarantee of stability, says Tkach.

However, will a weak ruble lead to explosive growth in industry, which in recent times stagnating rather than growing?

In the short term, the devaluation of the ruble will definitely give a signal for the growth of Russian industry.

However, further is not a fact. “The basic sectors of the Russian industry and economy are strongly tied to foreign equipment, they need access to foreign exchange funding, they need cooperation with foreign owners technological developments. Therefore, in the long term, this signal of growth will not become so predetermining as to ensure the progressive development of the industry,” says Zhannur Ashigali.

A too weak ruble is no longer bringing benefits, but only problems. Authorities and business have previously argued about what ruble exchange rate would be ideal for the real economy. A year ago, when the ruble fell to 60 rubles, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, said that the real sector needed a rate of 58-62 rubles per dollar. At the same time, he real sector dreamed of a rate of no more than 52 rubles, and the pharmaceutical industry generally needed a rate of 42 rubles, because the share of imports in this industry is too high. “Today, the rate is already over 67, but the results of the industry for the year cannot be called breakthrough. The value of the index of business activity PMI is now below 50 points, which indicates the absence of growth. But at least there is some stability,” says Tamara Kasyanova.

Finally, the domestic tourism industry may also benefit from a weak ruble. Outbound tourism is becoming more expensive for Russians by the same 20% that the dollar rose against the ruble. However, there is another side of the coin here - the devaluation of the ruble leads to a fall or stagnation in the consumer ability of Russians. And most importantly, so that incomes do not fall too much, when travel even in Russia becomes inaccessible to many. “Now Turkey is in the lead, Abkhazia is in second place, then Finland, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and China. Citizens also visit European countries, Italy, Spain, etc. show good growth. But the domestic tourism market is also growing well,” says Kasyanova.

According to ATOR, the cheapest package weekly beach tour at the end of August can be bought in the Crimea and Anapa, followed by Greece and Turkey, in fifth place is Sochi.

On the other hand, the devaluation of the ruble makes it more attractive for foreign tourists to visit Russia. Already last year, the flow of tourists to Russia exceeded 81 million people, which was a record in the entire history of the Russian Federation. The main volume is, of course, the Russians themselves, traveling around their own country. But there was also an increase in foreign tourists. This year, the trend promises to repeat itself, and not only at the expense of the World Cup.

August 24, 2018, 19:56
The depreciation of the ruble brings a lot of trouble - imports become more expensive, foreign holidays - inaccessible. However, a number of Russian industries, thanks to the growth of the dollar, received 700 billion rubles of additional income, emphasizes Andrei Belousov, aide to the President of the Russian Federation. Who benefits from the depreciation of the Russian currency?

The devaluation of the ruble amid the intensification of the sanctions war against Russia by the United States is unpleasant for ordinary citizens. Imported goods and holidays abroad are becoming more expensive, salaries do not have time to grow following the fall of the Russian currency. However, for many, a 20% depreciation of the ruble - from 57 to 69 rubles per dollar - this year becomes an extremely profitable event.

Additional income of a number of industries from raw material exports due to the weakening of the ruble is estimated at 700 billion rubles, said Andrey Belousov, aide to the President of the Russian Federation. “An increase of 10 rubles per dollar that we received during the year, and today our exchange rate, as you know, is in the region of 60, 67, 68 rubles, so this increment gave in relation to the volume of raw material exports last year without the participation of oil , gas and coal and, of course, mechanical engineering, metallurgy, additional revenue of 700 billion rubles,” Belousov said after a meeting with business. Belousov, however, hopes that the business will not use all this excess income for dividends, but invest in real development.

First of all, the Russian budget benefits from a weak ruble, and gets a double bonus from a combination of expensive oil and a cheap ruble. The fact is that the expenses in the budget are made up on the basis of a lower oil price (50 dollars) and a higher exchange rate of the ruble (61.5 rubles). In reality, oil is trading around $78 per barrel, and the dollar is close to 68-70 rubles. “The Russian budget for 2018 has a base price of 3,500 rubles per barrel. Now the Russian budget receives 5,000 for every barrel,” says Tamara Kasyanova, First Vice President of the Russian Club of Financial Directors. Moreover, the ruble price of a barrel of oil for the first time in history exceeded five thousand, having increased by a third since the beginning of the year.

Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Russian budget is in surplus, no. Moreover, it was initially drawn up with a deficit of 1.3% of GDP, but by the summer it became clear that there would be a surplus of at least 0.5% of GDP, and most likely even more.

Interestingly, not only Russia, but all emerging markets faced currency devaluation. The Turkish lira, the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, and the South African rand weakened against the dollar. Yes, and the Chinese yuan has gone down, however, this currency stands apart, because its rate is still determined by the People's Bank of China. In such a situation, in fact, any of these countries can become a new hotbed of crisis. Russia, on the other hand, looks very good against the general background, because high oil prices, coupled with devaluation, allow both the budget and the current account to remain in surplus. Not to mention the fact that Russia has a low public debt and has accumulated solid gold and foreign exchange reserves.

The Russian industry also receives a huge bonus due to the weak ruble. Export products become more competitive in price in foreign markets, which leads to an increase in export volumes, especially in ruble terms. The past years have already proven the benefits for the Russian economy from devaluation coupled with sanctions. Moreover, not only raw materials, but also non-primary exports grew - by 19% in 2017. Sanctions, on the one hand, reduced the trade turnover between Russia and the West, but on the other hand, they gave impetus to the production of new types of industrial products within our country.

“To the greatest extent, in the long term, a weak ruble is beneficial to industries that are aimed at exports, but are not heavily dependent on imports of components or fixed assets. These are the industries in which Russian technological developments are not inferior or weakly inferior to foreign ones and thus minimize dependence on the purchase of equipment or components for foreign currency,” says Zhannur Ashigali, Deputy Director of the ACRA Research and Forecasting Group.

Because a weak ruble may interfere with the implementation of investment programs that involve the purchase of imported equipment, notes Anastasia Sosnova from Freedom Finance Investment Company.

For those who spend little on imported raw materials and supply products for export, the current situation is a real paradise. For example, for manufacturers of plastic, wood and rubber products.

In general, not only the oil industry and Gazprom benefit, but also the metallurgical and chemical industries (the cost is ruble, but they sell products for foreign currency). Growth drivers are also agro-industrial enterprises, especially grain exporters. The latter may harvest less this year because of the weather, but earn more profit.

“In order to minimize currency risks, the largest representatives of these industries prefer to attract debt denominated in the currency of proceeds. Thus, with the devaluation of the ruble, the cost price in foreign currency terms becomes lower and the so-called excess income is formed, ”explains Mikhail Tkach, Leading Analyst for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA.

This year, world prices for products of the primary industries are at a level that is comfortable for producers, so the devaluation of the ruble is no longer a lifeline (as it was before), but rather an additional guarantee of stability, says Tkach.

However, will the weak ruble lead to explosive growth in the industry, which has been stagnating rather than growing lately?

In the short term, the devaluation of the ruble will definitely give a signal for the growth of Russian industry.

However, further is not a fact. “The basic sectors of the Russian industry and economy are heavily dependent on foreign equipment, they need access to foreign exchange funding, they need cooperation with foreign owners of technological developments. Therefore, in the long term, this signal of growth will not become so predetermining as to ensure the progressive development of the industry,” says Zhannur Ashigali.

A too weak ruble is no longer bringing benefits, but only problems. Authorities and business have previously argued about what ruble exchange rate would be ideal for the real economy. A year ago, when the ruble fell to 60 rubles, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, said that the real sector needed a rate of 58-62 rubles per dollar. At the same time, the real sector itself dreamed of a rate of no more than 52 rubles, and the pharmaceutical industry generally needed a rate of 42 rubles, because the share of imports in this industry is too high. “Today, the rate is already over 67, but the results of the industry for the year cannot be called breakthrough. The value of the index of business activity PMI is now below 50 points, which indicates the absence of growth. But at least there is some stability,” says Tamara Kasyanova.

Finally, the domestic tourism industry may also benefit from a weak ruble. Outbound tourism is becoming more expensive for Russians by the same 20% that the dollar rose against the ruble. However, there is another side of the coin here - the devaluation of the ruble leads to a fall or stagnation in the consumer ability of Russians. And most importantly, so that incomes do not fall too much, when travel even in Russia becomes inaccessible to many. “Now Turkey is in the lead, Abkhazia is in second place, then Finland, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and China. Citizens also visit European countries, Italy, Spain, etc. show good growth. But the domestic tourism market is also growing well,” says Kasyanova.

According to ATOR, the cheapest package weekly beach tour at the end of August can be bought in the Crimea and Anapa, followed by Greece and Turkey, in fifth place is Sochi.

On the other hand, the devaluation of the ruble makes it more attractive for foreign tourists to visit Russia. Already last year, the flow of tourists to Russia exceeded 81 million people, which was a record in the entire history of the Russian Federation. The main volume is, of course, the Russians themselves, traveling around their own country. But there was also an increase in foreign tourists. This year, the trend promises to repeat itself, and not only at the expense of the World Cup.