Opinions and forecasts of analysts on how the foreign exchange market will behave. Forex forecast. The dollar exchange rate is expected to change this week Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank

It is likely that the weighted average dollar exchange rate against the Belarusian ruble on the BCSE will fall by about 0.5%. On Monday, October 23, the exchange rate may decrease by a fraction of a percent. During the week, significant fluctuations in rates can be observed.

The weighted average dollar exchange rate on the BCSE fell by 0.3% last week, which coincided with , and reached 1.955 BYN/USD on October 20.

The weighted average rate of the euro, as expected, fluctuated sharply, but in general, following the results of the last week, it fell almost like the dollar rate: by 0.6% - to 20 2.3075 BYN/EUR.

The weighted average rate of the Russian ruble unexpectedly decreased last week, although at the beginning of the week, as expected, its growth was observed. The decrease was 0.3% (to 3.3984 BYN/100RUB on October 20).

Somewhat deviated from the expected dynamics of the value of the currency basket of the US dollar, euro and Russian ruble. We expected zero change, and the cost fell by 0.4%. At the same time, the volume of trades in foreign currencies on the exchange increased sharply, reaching 305.5 million BYN against 243.8 million BYN a week earlier. This suggests that the reason for the decrease in the value of the basket was the sale of foreign currency by Belarusian exporters in connection with the implementation of tax payments for the month and quarter.

Forecasts for the current week

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of currencies

This week, currency sales will apparently continue, which may lead to a new decrease in the value of the currency basket by up to 0.5%.

Currently, the National Bank and the BCSE are taking measures to increase the supply and purchase of foreign currency on the stock exchange. On October 19, Andrey Aukhimenia, Chairman of the Board of the BCSE, the exchange provided banks with the Fair course platform, with which they can organize the purchase and sale of foreign currency by individuals. True, so far there have been no such transactions. But the exchange is not going to stop there, and in the first quarter of 2018, it will provide individuals with direct access to currency trading.

In general, the situation in the country's financial market is improving, which makes it possible for the National Bank to soften its credit and financial policy. In particular, the National Bank will continue to reduce the refinancing rate as inflation slows down, but taking into account the state of the country's balance of payments. In addition, in 2018 the National Bank is going to abandon the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, but a decision on a specific date has not yet been made.

On October 19, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on increasing the average pension in nominal terms by about 5% from November 2017.

The increase will affect about 2.5 million pensioners, additional expenses for the payment of pensions will amount to 42.76 million BYN per month, and the average pension will increase to 315.74 BYN. After that, the expenses of the social protection fund for the payment of pensions will amount to about 830 million BYN per month.

The increase in pensions is carried out in connection with the growth of wages, which led to an increase in the income of the social protection fund. This means that another increase in pensions is possible in the coming months, as wages are expected to rise to 1,000 BYN, and there will indeed be a rise, although probably not to such a level (on average). Such a significant increase in household income will lead to an increase in demand for foreign currency, but it is not yet clear by how much.

The dollar against the euro

The American currency last week received support from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who on October 15 said that the labor market remains strong, which encourages the Fed to increase rates, despite low inflation. In addition, the US Senate on October 18 approved the draft budget for 2018, which makes the adoption of Donald Trump's tax reform more likely.

An important event for the future of the euro against the dollar will take place this week: on October 26, a meeting of the Board of Directors of the European Central Bank will be held, where further plans for monetary policy should be announced. Last week there was information about what can be decided at this meeting. It is expected that the ECB will extend the securities purchase program until August 2018, with the possibility of further extension if necessary, but at the same time reduce the volume of their purchases by at least 2 times from the current 60 billion EUR per month. This is not at all what the euro bulls were counting on, so such a decision by the ECB, if adopted, could lead to a depreciation of the euro.

At the same time, Credit Agricole experts believe that the markets have not yet fully appreciated the prospects for reducing ECB purchases, so the euro will go up against the dollar.

There is no unity in the ECB leadership regarding plans to reduce the securities buying program, so it can be expected that it will make a compromise decision. And this will keep the uncertainty on the market, although short-term significant fluctuations in the euro exchange rate are possible.

The dollar will be supported by the approval of the US budget for 2018. In this regard, Alexei Mikheev, an analyst at VTB 24, who has long been expecting a collapse in the euro, noted that this week the US Treasury will sharply increase the volume of placement of its securities. He expects that now the Treasury will increase the volume of attraction of funds, which will lead to the strengthening of the dollar in the forex market. In particular, according to the analyst, in December the euro exchange rate can be expected at the level of 1.1 USD/EUR.

It can be noted that the technical analysis also indicates the likelihood of the completion of the upward trend of the euro against the dollar in the forex market, and the transition to the stage of decline.

Events in Spain bring additional uncertainty, but, by the way, they do not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate.

In general, the market is currently extremely uncertain picture, and we can expect that this week the certainty will not appear yet. Therefore, according to its results, a zero change in the euro exchange rate is possible.

The exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar

The exchange rate of the Russian ruble failed to rise last week, despite tax payments and high demand for federal loan bonds (on Wednesday, October 18, the Ministry of Finance placed bonds for 30 billion rubles against a demand of 131.9 billion rubles).

The pressure on the ruble is exerted by the decline in oil prices on the world market. According to the US Department of Energy, in the week ending October 13, oil production fell by the maximum amount in 5 years, but demand for oil at refineries fell by 5%, and gasoline inventories increased. This is due not only to hurricanes, but also to the end of the automobile season in the country, which leads to a reduction in demand for gasoline. In this regard, a period of decline in oil prices may begin. On October 18, Ian Taylor, head of the Vitol Group, said that Brent oil could fall in price in 2018 to a level of about 40 USD per barrel.

Some uncertainty is introduced by the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, scheduled for October 27. It will take place after the completion of trading in foreign currencies on the BCSE, so it will not have a direct impact on the ruble exchange rate on the BCSE. In principle, few doubt that the Central Bank will reduce its key rate, experts only disagree on how much - by 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points, that is, to 8% or 8.25% per annum. In any case, the rate will remain high, so the decision of the Central Bank should not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

But the situation was the same before the meeting on September 15, and then a couple of days before it (September 12) the ruble exchange rate collapsed on the Moscow Exchange, which may have been caused by the actions of speculators before the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia. They were in a hurry to sell the previously purchased bonds. Something similar could happen now.

At the same time, a peak in tax payments is expected this week. Enterprises must pay mineral extraction tax, excises and VAT by October 25, and income tax by October 30. This should support the exchange rate of the Russian ruble.

Therefore, BELRYNOK will expect significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, but in general, by the end of the week, they can be compensated. Therefore, we expect a change for the week, close to zero.

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar

Thus, this week, an approximate repetition of the events of the last week is possible: after sharp fluctuations in exchange rates on the BCSE, all of them will fall against the Belarusian ruble by a fraction of a percent.

Forecast for Monday, October 23

At the auctions of the Moscow Exchange in the second half of Friday, October 20, the dollar rate fell by the close of trading by about 0.1% and amounted to 57.4975 RUB/USD.

In the forex market, the euro rate against the dollar in the second half of the trading day on August 20 fell by 0.2% - to 1.178 USD/EUR.

Based on these data, at the auctions on Monday, October 23, at the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, one can expect a depreciation of the dollar against the Belarusian ruble by a fraction of a percent.

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of October 23, 2017 is 57.51 rubles, the euro exchange rate today is 67.89 rubles.

A dual-currency basket, including the dollar and the euro, costs 62.0093 rubles.

Earlier it became known that the capitalization of bitcoin crossed the mark of 100 billion dollars over the weekend. It has risen in price to 6.2 thousand dollars per unit. Steady growth provided bitcoin with the opportunity to overtake investment banks in terms of capitalization. It is noted that the cryptocurrency maintains high volatility. In particular, in one day of exchange trading, the exchange rate can change within the range of 200-500 dollars.

Binbank chief analyst Natalia Vashchelyuk states that several important events are expected in the new trading week, including the publication of data on US GDP in the third quarter and orders for durable goods in September. Also on Thursday, following the results of the ECB meeting, the parameters for curtailing monetary stimulus programs should be announced, and on Friday it will become known by how much the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is ready to lower the key rate.

“Some deterioration in external conditions and the news background for the currencies of countries with emerging markets seems more likely,” Kommersant quotes the expert.

Alexey Ilyushchenko, head of the strategic development unit at SMP Bank, expects a moderate movement of the dollar to the level of 57.4 rubles in the new week. provided that oil prices remain at the current level.

“However, in many respects the trend in the dollar will depend on the rhetoric of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, who delivers a report on Friday in Washington. The theme of the speech was monetary policy after the financial crisis, informs Rosregistr. The market does not expect sensational statements, but in any case, it will be sensitive to the statements of the head of the Fed, ”he added.

Anastasia Sosnova, an analyst at Rossiyskiy Kapital Bank, does not expect fundamental changes in the dollar exchange rate either.

“Brent oil quotes are expected to remain in the $55-60 per barrel area. Events that can indirectly spur demand for the US currency are not expected next week. The announcement of a candidate for the post of the head of the US Federal Reserve after Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February 2018, must now take place before November 3. The US Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 31 - November 1. Thus, the pressure on commodity markets in the period under review will be weakened, ”the specialist said in her commentary to the publication.

Trading on the Moscow Exchange at the ruble exchange rate opened with growth. It did not last long in positive territory, as after the opening of the trading session, Brent oil fell 1.65% to $56.58. The dollar exchange rate after falling to 57.26 rubles. rose sharply to 57.64 rubles.

The ruble was under pressure until the close of trading as the US dollar strengthened against all major currencies on Friday. He received a portion of positive after the approval of the draft budget for 2018 by the US Senate.

The strengthening of the dollar against the Russian currency offset the growth of oil prices by 2% in the afternoon. In this regard, the dollar / ruble pair spent most of the time in a sideways trend between the levels of 57.40 - 57.65 rubles.

The euro/ruble exchange rate closed down amid a general weakening of the single currency on forex. The euro was sold all over the market due to the uncertainty about the independence of Catalonia and the general strengthening of the US dollar.

On Monday, October 23, the price of oil is trading at the close on Friday. The ruble will not have any advantage at the opening. The dollar in Asian trading shows mixed dynamics against major currencies. The news background is poor, so the focus of traders will be news from Spain and the dynamics of oil quotes.

As for the ruble pairs, they keep moving sideways at the current levels. The ruble this week will begin to receive support from the tax period. Peak tax payments on October 25th. If oil traders fail to return the price of Brent to $59.40 today or Tuesday, then the ruble will shift south (weakening against foreign currencies).

Good afternoon, dear visitors of our site. Today, as part of the current article, we will make a forecast for the dollar for the week of October 23.10.2017-27.10.2017. First, we will talk about the factors that you should pay attention to. After that, we will pay attention to the most important levels that can have an impact on the market movement.

So, first of all, let's start with the fundamentals. It is worth noting that I will consider everything in the context of the USDRUB currency pair. The upcoming week will be very eventful in fundamental terms, and we really have something to pay attention to in order to make the forecast for the dollar for the week 10/23/2017-10/27/2017 more accurate. On Wednesday, October 25, 2017, the US will publish data on crude oil inventories at 17-30 Moscow time.

After that, you need to be especially careful on Friday, October 27, 2017. On this day at 13-30 Moscow time data on the interest rate of the Russian Federation will be published.

The key rate is set by the Central Bank Russian Federation in order to influence the level of interest rates in the country's economy. In essence, this is the rate at which the Bank of Russia lends to commercial banks.

You can mark these time zones on the chart to make it easier for you to prepare for upcoming events.

Technical levels

Well, now, let's take a look at the most interesting technical levels. Let's look at the picture!

The current situation is shown here, which is developing within the USDRUB currency pair on the H4 interval. To begin with, I will note that the price has confidently fixed above the significant 57.273. At the same time, pay attention to the nature of the candles, which I marked in green. We have two candles in a row, which have shadows from below, and close above the level. This suggests that we have demand () and at the current time, the price is not able to overcome this level.

In this case, it will be necessary to look at the market opening on Monday. In the event that the price remains above the level, then from 57.273 we can consider buying with the nearest target up to 57.684.

If, for example, on Monday the price opens from and fixes below the level of 57.273, then it is worth considering sales to the level of 56.811. But personally, I am more inclined to buy, based on the current situation, but, in any case, we must wait for Monday and do not forget about the fundamental background! Friends, remember that everything I tell you about the forecast for the dollar from the 23rd to the 27th and not only is just my subjective vision of the market situation. And it's up to you to decide whether it is worth listening to my opinion or better to ignore it. I hope that this material will be useful to you, and you will be able to draw your own constructive conclusions based on it. Thank you for your attention, friends, see you soon!

Despite the large number of events that play a key role both in the monetary policy of foreign countries and in domestic Russian monetary policy, their impact on the mutual movement of the dollar and the ruble will be insignificant. According to experts, the expectations of the actions of financial regulators are already included for the most part in currency quotes. This also applies to the meeting of the European Central Bank, from which they expect a gradual curtailment of stimulating actions, and the meeting of the Russian Central Bank, which again has to choose between 25 and 50 basis points of cutting the key rate against the backdrop of slowing inflation. And even the speeches of the current head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, which is unlikely to change the position of the regulator, aimed at a gradual increase in the rate.

Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Binbank:

Several important events are expected in the coming week. Firstly, data on US GDP in the third quarter and orders for durable goods in September, which are important for assessing the future path of the Fed's interest rate, will be released. Secondly, on Thursday, following the results of the ECB meeting, the parameters for curtailing monetary stimulus programs should be announced. Thirdly, on Friday it will be known by how much the Bank of Russia decides to reduce the key rate - by 25 or 50 basis points. Some deterioration in external conditions and the news background for emerging market currencies seems more likely.

Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank:

At the beginning of the week, we do not expect a significant strengthening of the ruble against the backdrop of tax payments due to the continued liquidity surplus in the banking system. In the middle of the week, government officials and business leaders will be the main newsmakers for the ruble, who will gather at a forum organized by one of the state banks. Foreign investors want to hear about further economic policy Russia in the face of the possible introduction of new US sanctions and pressure on emerging markets, which could be exerted by Donald Trump's tax reform. By the end of the week, the ruble will try to strengthen in anticipation of a small reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank.

Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenith Bank:

The ruble's upside potential remains limited due to low investor interest in high-yielding assets amid expectations of further monetary tightening in the US and the risks of appointing the most hawkish candidate as the new head of the Fed. Oil prices are volatile and are unlikely to exceed $60 per barrel on current news (this will provoke fears that the OPEC + agreement will not be extended, and shale production will again be profitable). The expectation of a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank on October 27 under these conditions does not look important for the ruble, even if the regulator decides to lower it by 50 bp. because real rates will remain high even under this scenario due to lower inflation. We should also not forget about the tax period, which on Wednesday will divert almost 750 billion rubles, which allows us to count on the activity of exporters at the beginning of the week.

Denis Davydov, Chief Analyst at Nordea Bank:

Of the external key events, it is worth noting the following. 1) ECB meeting, during which the European regulator is expected to announce a program of narrowing stimulus measures. In general, the solution is expected, however, the details may cause additional ideas in the market. 2) The US will publish statistics on GDP for the third quarter. And although the data will reflect a slowdown in economic growth, the Fed has indicated its position that it is ready to ignore the current figures, given the impact of natural events on them. As a result, the statistics will not reduce the likelihood of the Fed's key rate hike in December. 3) The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will end, the results of which may give additional signals regarding the prospects for the economy of the Middle Kingdom. For the ruble, in addition to external news flows and oil prices, the driving factors will be: the peak in tax payments and the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. Taking into account the fact that in the middle of the week part of the liquidity is absorbed by the placement of COBRs, the so-called. the effect of the tax period may manifest itself brighter and support the ruble. Regarding the decision of the Central Bank, we expect a reduction in the key rate by 0.25%, which, however, is already mostly “in the market”.

Alexey Ilyushchenko, Head of the Strategic Development Unit at SMP Bank:

In the coming week, if oil quotations remain at the current level, we expect a moderate movement of the dollar to 57.4 rubles / $. However, in many respects the dollar trend will depend on the rhetoric of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, who delivers a report on Friday in Washington. The topic of the speech was monetary policy after the financial crisis. The market does not expect sensational statements, but in any case it will be sensitive to the statements of the head of the Fed.

Maxim Timoshenko, Director of Financial Market Operations at Russian Standard Bank:

A number of key events are expected next week, which may have an impact on the exchange rate of the national currency.

At the beginning of the week, market participants are waiting for the publication of data on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Judging by the expectations, the reduction of inventories will continue, which may lead to an increase in oil prices and, as a result, will support the ruble in the short term.

On October 26, the decision on the rate should be announced by the ECB. The next day, market participants expect the Russian Central Bank to cut the key rate by 25-50 bp. p., based on statistical data on the reduction of inflation to the level of 3% per annum. Another development affecting EM currencies will be the October 27 release of US GDP data, which will show how the economy is doing in a period of low rates and still falling short of its 2% inflation target.

Anastasia Sosnova, Leading Analyst at Russian Capital Bank:

We do not expect that the US dollar exchange rate will radically change the vector of its movement. Quotes of Brent oil, according to forecasts, should remain in the region of $55-60 per barrel. Events that can indirectly spur demand for the US currency are not expected next week. The announcement of a candidate for the post of the head of the US Federal Reserve after Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February 2018, must now take place before November 3. The US Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 31 - November 1. Thus, the pressure on commodity markets in the period under review will be weakened.

The US dollar, which was consistently depreciating against the ruble throughout August and early September, went up again in the second decade of the month. The maximum exchange rate for the entire summer season was recorded on August 4, when the official exchange rate was 60.75 rubles. By September 9, the dollar lost almost four rubles in value, dropping to 57.00 rubles. However, the American currency did not go below this mark, but, on the contrary, went into a smooth growth. What will happen to the dollar in the second half of September and in October 2017, what is the opinion of experts on this matter - the forecast for the US dollar against the ruble is presented below.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the second half of September 2017

As analysts expect, in the near future we should expect the continuation of the growth of the US dollar against the Russian ruble. One of the reasons for this is that the Russian economy, according to the Central Bank of Russia, showed the worst trade balance in July in more than 14 years! Our country's dollar revenues are falling, while spending is rising. And the ratio of imports and exports of 20.8 against $24.7 billion, respectively, is the worst since April 2003.

Yes, there is an influx of foreign currency in the form of private investment in the Russian economy, but this factor is rather fragile. If Western investment companies are prohibited from investing in Russian federal loan bonds due to new sanctions, this money stream will instantly dry up.

The mood on the stock exchange also speaks about the expectations of the growth of the exchange rate.

Futures, that is, contracts delayed in time, for the dollar-ruble pair, are actively bought up by players, both individuals and organizations, and this indicates that both of them are waiting for the growth of the dollar in Russia.

As for specific forecasts for the rest of September, APEKON analysts offer the following dollar exchange rate forecast for the second half of September 2017 in Russia:

• already to September 20 the dollar may appreciate 59.07 rubles,
• to September 25 the dollar will fall to 58.17 rubles.
• heading for September 30th – 57.17 rubles.

As you can see, so far experts believe that the strengthening of the dollar will be noticeable, but short-lived.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017

As for forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in October, the same APEKON analysts are still predicting a final depreciation of the dollar by the end of the month. Opening the month with a value of about 57.17 rubles, the dollar by the end of October will fall in price to 56.38 rubles. Fluctuations during the month are possible in the range from 55.53 to 57.23 rubles.

As happens with most APEKON forecasts, closer to the beginning of October, as well as during the month, it will be corrected, perhaps quite significantly.

The rest of the experts, although they do not talk about probable exchange rates in a given month, in general, by the end of the year, they expect the dollar to ruble exchange rate to return to the level of 60-61 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017 from September 30

The latest forecast of APEKON experts, made by them at the very end of September, confirms their earlier conclusions about the fate of the dollar and the ruble in October. The estimated exchange rate at the beginning and end of the month has changed very little. Let's take a closer look at how, according to analysts, events will develop on the currency exchange in October:

• at the opening of the month, on Monday, October 2, the dollar rate will be set on the 3rd day at the level 57.13 rubles(the difference with the older forecast above is 4 kopecks),
• following the results of the first week of the month, on October 7, the dollar will cost 57.62 rubles,
• following the results of the second week of October, on the 14th - 57.40 rubles,
• the third week will end with the dollar exchange rate on October 21 57.71 rubles,
• the fourth week of October will end with the dollar exchange rate on the 28th of about 57.56 rubles,
• the month will close with the dollar exchange rate on November 1 at the level 56.53 rubles(discrepancy with the earlier forecast - 15 kopecks).

Thus, while analysts are not inclined to expect another sharp rise in the dollar. The ruble will hold against the US currency at a fairly stable level with a tendency to some strengthening - within a month the dollar may fall in price by about 60 kopecks.