What awaits the Russian economy in the future global crisis. What awaits the Russian economy in November We are waiting for the economy

The Russians have to tighten their belts. We are waiting for the acceleration of inflation, a decrease in the growth of wages and incomes, and a further reduction in spending by the population. This follows from the new forecast of the Ministry of Economy, which the department sent to the government.

First of all, the document predicts a slowdown in economic growth in Russia. The GDP forecast for 2018 has been reduced from 2.1% to 1.9%, and for 2019 - from 2.2% to 1.4%.

Ministry of Economy also higher inflation - 3.1% against 2.9% in the April version of the document. The forecast for the growth of real wages in 2018 was kept at the level of 6.3%, and for 2019 it was lowered from 1.3% to 1%.

The average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2018, according to the department, will be 61 rubles. per dollar against 58.6 rubles., expected in April. The forecast for the exchange rate at the end of the year is about 62 rubles. per dollar against 58.8 rubles, previously expected.

At the same time, analysts proceed from the fact that oil prices will rise. The average annual price of Urals oil in 2018 is set at $69.3 per barrel against $61.4 in April.

It makes me want to exclaim: how so? According to the new May presidential decree, the Russian economy should grow faster than the world average. That is, faster than 3% per year - if we focus on the data of the World Bank. Why is the economy slowing down instead, despite rising oil prices?!

However, the Ministry of Economy has an answer to this question: growth of 3% will be achieved, the department believes, but only by 2022. And only if the rate of investment in the Russian economy can be increased by 6% of GDP per year, starting from 2020.

As you can see, the only thing missing from the “if” list is rain on Thursday.

Tellingly, the picture of the world of the Ministry of Economy differs from that of the Ministry of Finance. 27th of June First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance during his speech at the Federation Council, he optimistically assured that in 2018 an increase in real incomes of the population by 6.3% would be one of the factors for accelerating GDP growth, along with positive data on inflation and industry.

It is noteworthy that, according to the Ministry of Finance, since the beginning of 2018, the growth of real wages has already amounted to 9%. In other words, life in Russia has become better and more fun.

The forecast of which department is closer to the truth, what actually awaits the economy of the Russian Federation?

Siluanov is more optimistic in his assessments - apparently because he received a higher position in the government, and his mood is now better than that of the head of the Ministry of Economy, ironically notes Andrey Bunich, President of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Tenants of Russia. - , let me remind you, they left it in the same place - and with a significant truncation of functions in favor of the Ministry of Finance. Perhaps that is why the forecast of the Ministry of Economy - more pessimistic - is closer to the truth. And to be honest, the situation in the Russian economy looks frankly bad.

It must be understood that the growth rates that were planned back in April cannot even be close. I think that the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy will have to be adjusted downwards at the end of the year for all indicators - inflation, the ruble exchange rate, and real incomes of the population.

SP: Why do you think so?

In their forecasts, the departments proceed from the current - rather favorable - external economic situation. Let me note that the euphoric statements of the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance about the growth prospects that have been made over the past six months were associated with the rise in oil prices and the hidden devaluation of the ruble that took place this spring. But these factors may turn out to be a temporary phenomenon, primarily due to the global crisis.

The global economy is indeed teetering on the brink of recession, including in the stock and bond markets. In such conditions, a strong downward correction may occur, which will have a negative impact, including on the raw materials and energy markets.

There is also a geopolitical factor - the US president, for example, considers $ 25 per barrel a good price for oil. Therefore, no one knows how things will turn out with the prices of "black gold".

In the context of the global recession, the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy, one must think, will become completely different. And the current growth rates of the Russian economy will look like a very good achievement.

Our internal situation also plays a role in the deterioration. The economic measures announced by the new government are every one depressing growth. The Cabinet of Ministers raises taxes and robs the population, and also undermines the strategy of long-term savings - but Pension Fund Until recently, it was a source of some, but "long" money.

In my opinion, the members of our government are stubbornly sawing the branch on which we, the population of Russia, are sitting. The members of the Cabinet themselves, one must think, are sitting on some other bitch. Only due to these internal actions, I repeat, the Russian economy can significantly slow down.

Is there some more important point. The current indicators of the economy are the fruit of reserves that have not yet been completely consumed. But now the government, one might say, is putting the country on dry rations, and is beginning to distribute money from the reserves among the oligarchs, who allegedly suffered greatly from Western sanctions. Such a redistribution, one must think, will also have a negative impact on the economy.

Let me put it this way: at $40 per barrel, problems in the Russian economy will grow like a snowball, and the "stash" will quickly end. With that said, the current most pessimistic forecasts will be revised for the worse.

"SP": - This situation can be corrected?

The reasons for the current situation are in the real lack of knowledge, in the lack of understanding of what to do next, among the members of the economic bloc. Neither the structure of the economy nor its driving forces change, but there is no talk of it. Although it is clear to many: on the basis on which Siluanov works, our economy will never work.

Therefore, my forecast - in connection with the depletion of reserves, as well as gigantic infrastructure problems, the solution of which has been postponed for many years - we are waiting for near-zero or even negative growth rates. Plus, I do not rule out the collapse of our archaic financial system.

Great news: The net attraction of the Russian Federation in the domestic borrowing market in 2019 will amount to 1.705 trillion rubles, according to the draft budget. "The difference between the funds received from the placement of government securities of the Russian Federation, the nominal value of which is indicated in the currency of the Russian Federation, and the funds allocated for their redemption is 1.705 trillion rubles," the document says in terms of sources of financing the federal budget deficit. In 2020, the volume of net domestic borrowing will amount to 1.8 trillion rubles, in 2021 - 1.578 trillion rubles, according to the draft budget (c) PRIME.

Very interesting. Let's take a closer look at the numbers. Neither in the second nor in the third quarter of this year were they able to place (OFZ) even a third of the plan. Worse, the situation has led to such that they cannot replenish gold reserves. Stalemate: replenishing gold reserves - worsening conditions for OFZ placement.

In order to return normal conditions for OFZ placement, it is necessary to or strongly strengthen the ruble (spend gold reserves) and / or time is needed (to show the stability of the current exchange rate), or greatly weaken:) the ruble (but then the yield will be extremely high, and, as we can see, it is already becoming very expensive for the state to service the government's debts - both in relative figures (rates) and in absolute values ​​(expenses for paying interest on OFZ in the budget).

Ok, Western investors cannot be attracted. Let's look at our investors. Banks and NPFs. We have already said that the Central Bank / Ministry of Finance at inflated prices changed our pension savings on his OFZ (), well, that is, he sold us his debts with a markup. Let me remind you that all this is happening within the framework of our forecasts from 2012-2014 (- the forecast has been implemented). And this is just the beginning. The moratorium on theft of freezing our pension savings, by the way, this year, in fact, was extended forever, judging by the comments to the budget (I remind you that the employer transfers 6% of our salaries to the funded part of our future pension, but only the PFR does not distribute this money according to our accounts since 2013, the government spends this money ... well, for example, to finance "infrastructure projects" of various "friends" there).

And before that, for several years, the Central Bank nationalized the commercial banking sector, incl. with the aim of providing opportunities in the future (today) to pour their debts (OFZ) into these nominal shell banks. You keep deposits there, and your deposits bring you 6-7% per annum, because the money does not work in the economy, but a significant part is sent to OFZ (to the government to finance expenses, including military and those very "infrastructure projects", where the money is simply sawn to the beneficiaries of the entire upcoming catastrophe in the economy of our country).

Yes, and a few hundred billion more of your rubles were planted in the OFZ through the sale to you of the so-called. "investment protective instruments" - for example, investment life insurance - ILI (). Within these products, both OFZ and corp. bonds of banks that spend this money, among other things, to finance government debts (OFZ). Well, such a scheme. To bypass restrictions. Incl. regulatory and sanctions. And additional earnings for banks (on commission - again, at your expense, "cutting off" your profitability, you still don't see it inside the product).

So, your "investments", your deposits, your pension savings have been sent to finance the government's debts. But not all yet. See.

27 trillion in banks. rubles of your savings. Another 15 trillion. rubles funds comm. organizations. This money (with the exception of the longest deposits) cannot be poured into long OFZs. We will not even consider them as liabilities. Also, we will not consider as such budget funds placed in banks (like virtual money, short money). Until we do. So, the money that can be used is your deposits to a large extent (you still don’t need them, since you keep ruble deposits in the bank - you kind of hint to the government that you don’t care about your money, you invest it you don’t want to on your own, inflation eats them up day by day).

So, yesterday Fitch said in its review that under 2 trillion of bank loans (consider - out of your issued 27 trillion, in fact, not 27 but less, we do not count foreign currency deposits, since ruble assets / loans are dying mainly, and OFZs are placed in ruble - 21 trillion rubles)- bad debts (overdue 90+) about 2 trillion. rubles. Obviously, there are many more people close to them. The rest of the money is in assets (loans in industry), and if we are talking about nationalized state banks, then in real estate and infrastructure, which will return this money only after a strong inflationary surge as a result of an inflationary rise in prices for all these assets (no other way, unfortunately). And then after years.

At the same time, next year Golikova promises us a drop in the "growth rate" of real incomes (). Well, you get the idea. In practice, this will result in a deterioration in the servicing of loans by both physicists and lawyers. Do not forget about the mortgage issued under the "record low rates"and without an initial, in fact, contribution (people took consumer loans in order to make a down payment on a mortgage with this money - Aaaah!...). The hole in the banks - against the backdrop of general euphoria from high (so far, China is silent!) oil prices - will only grow. There is almost no other place to get money to fill OFZ again (I remind you - 1.7 trillion rubles). To milk the population on the subject - get it out from under the mattress and buy another ILI, OFZ ..? Or ask the population to pull out the currency (introducing a ban on the circulation / storage / ... dollar)? Option 1). What else?

The retirement age has been reduced. There will also be savings on the payment of pensions. Expenses on education and medicine have nowhere to cut. Where to get money? Use the excess margin from high oil prices. Well then budget rule will be violated. Then we will not replenish the gold reserves. What if the price of oil starts to fall? And the gold reserves are few. What if there are problems with dollar settlements? And dollars are not enough to even compensate for their own. No, you have to buy dollars (I immediately remember the Central Bank's promise not to buy foreign currency again until the end of the year).

Option two (?) - print the ruble. But under it you need to have a gold reserves. And the excess money supply needs to be cut out of the economy. That is, to fill up lending, that is, to fill up the economy, increase unemployment ... reduce the income of the population ... A vicious circle. That is, restrictions. With such economic policy only slowly rot in "stability", hoping that "falling planes" on the BV and after that the S-300 complexes leaving there will periodically throw up oil prices higher and higher. And God forbid, the US market will start to fall or China will issue negative statistics on its own (especially as part of the worsening situation with the export of goods to the US against the background of the trade war and the decrease in the margins of the economy due to rising oil prices).

There is another (third) option - the devaluation of the ruble to compensate for the shortfall in positive flows (1.7 trillion OFZ + $ 3 billion (or how much is there, in terms of?) External loans. 10% interest (growth in exchange rates) by the middle of next year (as a minimum!) mortgage - just even technically Well, in fact, next year (end), I remind you, this is a temporary start for the second stage of the ruble devaluation (, ,), which we have been talking about since 2012 ( - Let me remind you that with the first stage in 2014 - we were not mistaken in the forecast).

And the last option. Like the second. Only hidden. A little more to nationalize the banking sector and fill it with OFZ. We still have one more commercial large bank :) And a few of the middle hand. It seems to me that during 2019 it is very relevant. And let's not forget about another non-nationalized private oil company.

P.S. If you once again read carefully what is written above, and the information on the links indicated in the text, you will understand that your ruble deposits are the last (except for direct emission, and the nationalization of one bank and one oil company) OFZ feeder - and that at some point there will be restrictions on the withdrawal of funds from deposits (because your short money will be poured into long-term instruments and, most likely, through a scheme so that the balance / liquidity indicators do not fly). There will be either a limit on the amount per month, or on the time of withdrawal (lag from circulation). This will be the moment X, when the same exchange rate of the ruble will fall very rapidly (and your ruble savings will melt before your eyes, but you will not be able to do anything).

Think. Be active in managing your savings / capital. Make the most of your earning opportunities NOW. Then there may not be time or opportunity for all this. Don't sit straight on your butt.

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The last few years have been a difficult test for Russia and its citizens. The fall in oil prices, international sanctions and the rupture of economic ties with the developed countries of the West have hit hard on the export-oriented economy of our country.

Most of the previously established commercial ties were broken at one moment, and new ones could not be created due to a number of reasons.

Only quite recently the Russian economy began to enter the zone of stability, and positive dynamics appeared in some of its sectors.

However, according to the forecasts of a number of authoritative experts, a new round of the crisis should be expected as early as 2019. It can be provoked by the low price of energy resources, on the sale of which the filling of the budget depends, and the expansion of sanctions, due to which domestic business will lose its position in world markets.

What to expect Russians in 2019

For citizens Russian Federation The upcoming 2019 promises to be absolutely unpredictable. First, this will be the end of the elections and the government will not have to please its electorate by supporting prices and freezing fees.

This means that utility bills will increase, and inflation will reduce the real incomes of citizens. Second, the deficit Money in the budget can provoke a halt in many social and infrastructure projects, which will necessarily lead to an increase in unemployment.

In addition, at the legislative level, the government can cut some payments, as well as cancel benefits and subsidies for vulnerable groups of the population.

What the government says

According to representatives of the Ministry economic development, the citizens of our country should not expect cardinal changes in a positive direction in 2019. Officials say that the economy is in stagnation and development will be, but very slow.

State employees and pensioners, most likely, will not receive significant additions to their payments. You should not count on cardinal ones - the maximum that can be expected is compensation for inflationary losses, which, according to forecasts, should be about 5%.

On the other hand, the country's leaders are talking about the positive dynamics of world energy markets, hoping that "black gold" in the coming year will win back the positions lost during the crisis.

In addition, according to the latest reports, organizations across the country have managed to accumulate enough funds to invest, which will certainly serve as a multiplier for the development of all industries.

The only incomprehensible point in the government's development strategy of the country is the freezing of wages, which, according to those in power, should stimulate the development of the economy.

Guided by their logic, incomprehensible to others, they are trying to make the population richer by taking away income. Although in our country people are already accustomed to such eccentric decisions of the authorities.

Expert forecasts for 2019

This opinion is shared by experts from the European Commission. They argue that in the near future the economy of our country will recover from a heavy blow, and it is unlikely that it will show accelerated growth rates in the near future.

Domestic experts are more optimistic in their assessments. They argue that although the echoes of the recent crisis will still be heard in 2019, nevertheless, the state has every chance to fully recover and move on to confident development.

In addition, the sanctions policy of recent years on the part of Western partners will allow domestic businesses to freely master underdeveloped areas of management.

Where to expect salvation

Today Russia is in a rather difficult situation.

On the one hand, the investment attractiveness of the country for foreign investors has greatly decreased, and on the other hand, the state is no longer able to continue financing large-scale projects due to the depletion of reserve funds and the lack of new cash flows from the sale of energy resources.

This situation leads to stagnation in all spheres of management. The government is trying to solve problems with private domestic capital, encouraging entrepreneurs to invest their own funds in free, or underdeveloped niches, but judging by the latest data, this does not bring much success.

China remains a reliable partner ready to respond to profitable offers. Unfortunately, the money from there comes only to the extractive industry or to the area where profit is guaranteed. Although in recent times Investments from the "Celestial Empire" are increasingly pouring into other areas.

Experts see a way out of this situation in the liberalization of legislation and the creation of free trade zones. They offer experience developed countries by organizing a tax "paradise" in depressed regions. Such a step will help not only find jobs for the population, but will also fully reveal the potential of our country.

When the lingering crisis subsides

It is obvious that the imaginary stability popularized in our country actually turns out to be stagnation. The state lives solely by selling resources and is completely dependent on their prices in world quotations.

Most of the products produced are not able to compete at the global level and the country has to protect its own manufacturer with duties. To eliminate stagnation, bold decisions and fundamental changes are needed, both in the economic and political segments.

If improvements do not happen, then Russia, with all its natural wealth, risks remaining a raw material appendage of the powerful. However, we will count on positive trends in the Russian economy and good ones.

Video news

The article was written specifically for the site “2019 Year of the Pig”: https://website/

Russia has recently relied heavily on military power in order to maintain its position in the world. Its economy, however, is in decline, and the more time passes, the more obvious this becomes. The situation is influenced both by the fall in oil prices, the recovery of which is not expected in the near future, and by the sanctions of the United States and the European Union. And so everything goes to the fact that 2017 may well turn out to be absolutely monstrous for both Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. Only reforms can be guaranteed to save us from this.

The country's national reserves have already fallen by two-thirds since 2014. Then they amounted to approximately 88 billion dollars. Now that number has dropped to 30 billion. Reserves were used to close holes in the budget, but millions of people across Russia ended up below the poverty line. The rise in living standards, which had been steadily observed since Vladimir Putin came to power, first stopped, and then began to decline steadily.

The reserve fund of the Russian Federation, designed specifically for the most extreme case, received one of the most serious blows. It is very likely that it will dry up completely this year. The Treasury Department, of course, takes action by selling foreign exchange, but federal spending is draining the money supply at an astounding rate.

And, of course, it is the people of Russia who feel this most of all. A recent study by Dozhd TV channel showed that 74% of Russians acknowledge the existence of economic problems. Approximately the same number of people cite inflation as the main problem they have to deal with, while 49% consider poverty as such. 43% of respondents reported that unemployment is a very serious problem.

Despite the fact that the voices of dissatisfied in Russia are often ignored, such results demonstrate that if the situation does not change after a while, then the country may indeed start unrest. People who will be forced to deny themselves everything will simply become impossible to unite with patriotism. Therefore, the worse they live, the higher their indifference to Syria, as well as to the Crimea, the price of a trip to which exceeds a flight to foreign resorts.

The political course of the Kremlin, however, does not change. On the contrary, the country's officials began to stick to their line even more strongly. No one intends to cut costs - further holes in the budget are planned to be closed with the help of sponsors and loans. Such a strategy, however, will only be effective for two or three years, since it is not designed to permanently solve problems. At the same time, 10 billion rubles are spent monthly on the war in Syria. Yes, and the Crimea mentioned above eats up a lot of money, since it requires construction railway, bridge, as well as investment in infrastructure. And while Crimea develops, other regions get poorer and start to simply hate it.

The future of the Russian economy is in very great danger. Whether the current problems will lead to uprisings against the Putin regime remains to be seen. But one thing is clear - despite the Kremlin's statements about the desire to restore Russia's status as a superpower, this cannot be done when the standard of living of the population leaves much to be desired. Therefore, the state should remember that the country rests, first of all, on people. If this is not done, the West will continue to have a significant economic advantage over Russia in the future.

Translation made according to Forbes materials especially for Planet Today

Except that August is coming soon again, probably not. Over the past 20 years, the Russian economy has changed dramatically: huge gold and foreign exchange reserves, a positive trade balance against the backdrop of a very favorable external economic environment, a strong Central Bank and fiscal authorities, a powerful financial cushion to support socially vulnerable segments of the population (this is very important, because 20 years ago everyone was afraid that people will take to the streets with empty pots; now this airbag allows you to soberly make economic and geopolitical decisions). Add to this economic growth - 3% increase in industrial production and more than 2% increase in GDP since the beginning of the year, historically the lowest inflation and record low unemployment for all post-Soviet times. This is a completely different economy: it is many times larger, it is strong and stable, it has just weathered two major shocks - a fourfold drop in prices for the main export commodity, oil, plus the introduction of powerful economic sanctions. Even one of these factors would be enough for another strong economy to break.

And emerging markets are different now. Of course, the volatility on them is higher than on the developed ones. Some countries are experiencing temporary difficulties, but already differ little from developed economies. From time to time, such difficulties are experienced by Italy, Spain or, for example, France, where a few years ago they led to a sharp increase in taxes. A variety of domestic and international suprabank mechanisms stop these difficulties so that they do not outgrow the national framework. The difference between developing countries, including large ones such as Brazil and Argentina, and such as Spain or Italy has become less noticeable, has ceased to be an abyss.

Not everything in the world is wonderful

The statement by Bank of America analysts about similarities with the situation in 1998 is, of course, not speculation. The text of their report itself is rather dry, calm, this is the opinion of an observer. It says that there are capital flows between countries, there are changes in interest rates and you can try to see some trends. Can you find similarities with other historical moments? Probably you can. But this similarity is not at all so obvious, and probably can be found with many more moments than 1998 or 2008. When the Hydrometeorological Center reports that 10% of the monthly rainfall fell somewhere yesterday, how should we treat this? Scared or forgotten, because it was yesterday? Or decide that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow it will not rain?

Yes, we see a serious flow of funds to the US market from the developing ones. Investors are increasingly investing in US Treasury bonds. Will it affect the market? It is not yet clear. Is this a game against some weak currencies? It's also not obvious. Rather, it is natural: in the United States, the first increase in the base interest rate in many years is taking place, and the market is becoming more attractive. Is it bad or good? Probably, some economies may not like it. Especially those that are heavily dependent on liquid capital flows. However, Russia in lesser degree depends on this money.

The source of instability now may not be emerging markets, but a great country across the ocean. The US has a large negative trade balance and a huge fiscal deficit. Well, when both indicators are normal. When one is positive and the other is negative, the situation can be balanced. When both are in the red, this is usually bad. Generally, but with one exception. And this exception America, in fact, has always been. Precisely because the rest of the world, buying US Treasuries and dollars, in fact, finances the development of its economy, despite the double deficit.

Will there be a new year 2008?

In 2008 (and here you can find similarities), the crisis came to us from America, and it grew out of the crisis of mortgage-backed securities, that is, mortgage debts of households. Today, American corporations have already taken on a huge amount of loans at low interest rates, and there are fears that now, with their increase (and if the Fed raises rates from 1 to 3%, then for the population and corporations this turns into 6-7%), many of them will start to go bankrupt, unemployment will increase - and further according to the formula . Such a development of events is possible, but will it be catastrophic for the whole world? So far it doesn't seem to be the case. And even more so for Russia. Our economic ties are already quite weak and limited, and American investors last years under the influence of geopolitical conversations, their money has already been withdrawn - the last big outflow was in April of this year. Therefore, it simply does not make sense to be afraid that a new outflow will lead to some significant change in the Russian market.

What should a private investor do?

The main recommendation to investors is simple: there are no assets with zero risk. This means that you need to carefully monitor external and internal risks and look for risk to your own arshin, according to your knowledge and qualifications. The second rule: you need to diversify by different dimensions - by asset classes, by duration, asset maturity, currency and counterparties. For an ordinary investor, I would not recommend getting involved in any particular topic. Point investments need to be trusted by professionals, allowing them to show their talents.

Opinions of experts of banks, financial and investment companies presented in this section may not coincide with the opinion of the editors and do not constitute an offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any assets