Who will replace Medvedev as Prime Minister of Russia. See who will come: candidates for key positions in the future government of Dmitry Medvedev have become known Who will replace Medvedev in office

As is often the case, the media and blogs are overflowing with reports of changes that will take place in the highest echelons of power. Tsargrad talked to informed sources and systematized all currently available information.

Prime Minister

Despite the most exotic speculations circulating in the press as to who will head the new cabinet, it appears that for the time being Dmitry Medvedev. As the inauguration date approached, rumors about one candidate or another (from Sobyanin and Sechin to Kudrin) faded away.

Deputy Prime Ministers

Judging by media reports, the corps of vice-premiers expects a serious shuffling. First Deputy Prime Minister to be dismissed Igor Shuvalov, as well as deputy chairmen Olga Golodets, Arkady Dvorkovich and Vitaly Mutko. The future is in question Dmitry Kozak. In place of Shuvalov, Dvorkovich and Golodets, the current head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade is tipped Denis Manturov, Assistant to the President Andrey Belousov and Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova.

Ministers

If we talk about federal ministers, then, after analyzing the data in the media and the opinions of sources in power circles, we can say that at least ten ministerial portfolios will end up in new hands. So, there is evidence that the Minister of Education Olga Vasilyeva will move to a new position in the Presidential Administration, and her post may be taken by the head of the Sirius Center for Gifted Children Elena Shmeleva. This scenario is supported by the fact that Shmeleva was one of the co-chairs of Vladimir Putin's campaign headquarters in the presidential election.

There is money, but not for you: the Medvedev government is everything!

Also, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will leave ministerial posts, according to sources. Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Sergey Donskoy, sports minister Pavel Kolobkov and minister of affairs North Caucasus Lev Kuznetsov. The names of those who should replace these officials are still unknown.

With a high degree of probability, the Minister for Development will be dismissed Far East Alexander Galushka. He should be replaced by someone from the team of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of Russia in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev.

In the media Sergei Lavrov. Tsargrad previously analyzed in detail the whole situation and the candidates for possible successors.

Seat of the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, who is tipped for the post of first deputy chairman of the government, with a high degree of probability, can take CEO PJSC "KAMAZ" Sergei Kogogin. Sources say this is supported by the fact that Kogogin was co-chairman of Vladimir Putin's campaign headquarters in the March 2018 presidential election.

With a high degree of probability, the Minister of Culture will lose his post Vladimir Medinsky. There are many applicants for his place, so none of the sources could stop at a specific candidate. The same can be said about the Minister of Telecom and Mass Communications Nicholas Nikiforov and Minister of Transport Maxim Sokolov. It is difficult to say who exactly will replace them in office, but sources say that the issue of their departure can be considered actually resolved. Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova with a high degree of probability will replace the third co-chairman of the campaign headquarters of Vladimir Putin - the general director of the Center for Children's Hematology, Oncology and Immunology. Dmitry Rogachev, member of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Rumyantsev.

Most likely, the Minister of Labor and social protection Maxim Topilin. Sources believe that the name of his successor will be named by the new Deputy Prime Minister in charge of this area - Tatyana Golikova.

In addition, there are a number of ministers about whose future fate it is difficult to say anything specific. Except Sergei Lavrov, this is the Minister of Construction and Housing and Communal Services Mikhail Men, head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Vladimir Puchkov and Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the above data are based on the position of informed sources who, for one reason or another, decided to remain anonymous, as well as publications in the media. Recall that in 2004, Sergei Lavrov found out about his appointment to the post of Foreign Minister three days before the official announcement. So it is quite possible that the final consultations will be held this coming weekend.

photo: kremlin.ru

Almost immediately after it became clear that Vladimir Putin won presidential elections, again talking about changing the prime minister. We have collected experts' assumptions about who can take the post of prime minister and over the next six years will manage the economy, education, health care, and, in general, the level of the country's well-being, MK reports.

Two days before the election, Putin ordered by April 15 to develop a draft decree on "national goals" for the next six years. The demands voiced by the president based on his recent address to the Federal Assembly concern the economy and social sphere, and look more than ambitious. Among them - joining the top five largest economies in the world, rising incomes and pensions, reducing poverty, increasing life expectancy to 78 years, increasing the "population" of the country, improving the living conditions of families. The results of such "homework" for the government can be decisive in choosing a new prime minister, as they will determine the agenda for the next six years, which the head of the cabinet will have to implement.

“The main decisions will be made after the instructions on “national goals” are fulfilled: then it will become clear how the goals will be ranked, what priorities will be set,” says Nikita Maslennikov, head of the “finance and economics” direction at the Institute of Contemporary Development. In his opinion, the prime minister of 2018–2024 must understand the structural agenda, be able to work in the designated areas, have serious knowledge in the field of finance and monetary policy, and be respected in expert community and business circles, be able to discuss, argue one’s point of view and engage in dialogue, because possible structural reforms in the future will require a constant search for compromises, the ability to sail against the wind, and sometimes without sails.

“The shortlist of candidates for this position includes people who, to one degree or another, possess all these qualities. Dmitry Medvedev may well remain in the chair. The current First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who actively manifests himself in recent times. The chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is quite worthy of the position: the actions of the Central Bank set the logic of the government's work in the near future, and the creation of a low inflationary environment determines the possibility and necessity of structural reforms. Another person on the "waiting list" is the head of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Tatyana Golikova, as a very experienced person in terms of financial discipline: she will be able to effectively and efficiently spend the country's funds, which is now extremely important. Aleksey Kudrin looks quite logical on this list, because he knows how to act in the direction of overcoming restrictions for economic growth. The last in this list, I would add Presidential Aide Andrei Belousov, who also developed as an experienced manager with strategic thinking, ”the expert voiced such assumptions.

“In the current system of coordinates, the political will of the president is much more important, and the leaders of the second or third level are not of cardinal importance and perform a nominal function, even the chairman of the government,” Nikita Isaev, director of the Institute of Actual Economics, expressed an alternative point of view. - The government in the period 2012-2018 was just a kind of lightning rod to maintain a positive image of the head of state. In this regard, Dmitry Medvedev has the highest prospects for becoming prime minister. However, any surprises can be expected from Vladimir Putin - this is the visiting card of the president. The surprise in 2004 was Mikhail Fradkov, and in 2007 - Viktor Zubkov. Such people can be put into alignment in order to be above the struggle of various groups of influence, which will no longer fight for the status of prime minister, but for the status of a successor, ”the economist is convinced.

Nikita Maslennikov does not agree with him. “Now surprises are inappropriate, and the time of technical prime ministers is over: the functionality of the government is changing and requires political weight from the head of government. I think we will see a lot of new things in the quality of the administration, but not in its structure: it is unlikely that new people will come to the government, rather there will be only castling,” the expert noted. Other officials are also tipped for the post of Prime Minister - Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Minister economic development Maxim Oreshkin, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. In any case, for now, the president has taken a pause for reflection and will give the candidates an opportunity to prove themselves until May.

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Vladimir Putin, having assumed the office of President of Russia for the fourth time, submitted Dmitry Medvedev's candidacy to the State Duma for approval for the post of Prime Minister.

Dmitry Badovsky, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Research Foundation:

The motives for the decision to keep Medvedev as prime minister, Putin, in fact, called the day before at a meeting with the outgoing government. He specifically emphasized the need for continuity and consistency, and noted Medvedev's personal merits. It is important for the president that the new cabinet begin work as quickly as possible, without delay, and begin to solve the new tasks formulated in the message of March 1. It has been repeatedly said that many of the new cabinet's decisions may be "difficult", and Putin noted that he would finally choose the prime minister's candidacy, taking into account his "ability to explain" such decisions. Medvedev has a very serious experience in public politics, and by this criterion he surpassed all other potential candidates.

The new composition of the government will definitely work until 2022. The key reforms that need to be launched in the near future have a large temporal depth of implementation. A more or less serious reconfiguration of the government is possible no earlier than 2022, when, after the next elections to the State Duma in 2021, the Russian political system will enter the period of preparation for the presidential elections in 2024.

Medvedev has proven himself to be a very loyal supporter of Putin. The president cannot make any serious claims to Medvedev without indirectly making claims to himself. Although this does not give Medvedev guarantees of further long-term political survival. It is clear that the reshuffles in the government that are made after the inauguration are largely symbolic. And if there is a real need, the government can be changed at any time. In order for the government to change, an emergency is needed, associated with serious crisis phenomena in the economy or foreign policy life. We cannot exclude this, but so far this scenario is far from being realized. Based on the current situation, there is no reason not to extend Medvedev's tenure as prime minister. I think he is on the short list of people Putin sees as his possible successors.

Mikhail Vinogradov, President of the Petersburg Politics Foundation

The person of Medvedev is politically and psychologically as comfortable as possible for Putin - both because of the relationship that exists between them, and because of the act committed by Medvedev in the fall of 2011, when, in fact, he gave up everything for Putin. Such a large-scale "feat" was not performed by any Russian politician. He took the maximum reputational risks.

There was some ambiguity as there is a request for more air in politics and renewal. And Putin never made any public commitments to Medvedev during the election campaign. There have been attempts to test the stability of the government, up to and including the arrest of [Summa group owner Ziyavudin] Magomedov. But in general, the scale of pressure in favor of replacing the prime minister turned out to be insignificant, despite the effect of fatigue that some of the establishment has.

In the event of a serious deterioration in social well-being, the move to replace Medvedev always remains in your pocket. In addition, some expectations of the equator of Putin's term in May 2021 will now be created, after which some real decisions related to the transit of power can be made. It is unlikely that Medvedev was given any specific commitments regarding the terms of his office.

Evgeny Minchenko, President of the communication holding "Minchenko Consulting"

The scenario [of Medvedev's reappointment] was considered basic, and there were no force majeure events. Medvedev is an understandable prime minister. And Medvedev as prime minister is a pending issue of a successor. If there were another candidate, then this person would immediately begin to be perceived as a potential successor. And Medvedev, although, of course, is also one of the candidates for successors, still personifies a certain stability and continuity.

I think that [Medvedev has been appointed] until at least 2021. If there is no force majeure, he will be able to work quietly until the next State Duma. And the State Duma will be such a transitional moment. If Medvedev retains his position after that, then, of course, he will be the favorite as a successor as well.

Andrey Kolesnikov, Head of the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center

Medvedev's strength lies in his weakness. He technically suits everyone. This is a message to all the elites: we continue to move as we have been moving, do not hope for an imbalance, the main balancer remains in place. All groupings that can affect something remain in the same state as they were. This is reasonable for a person who does not want to become a lame duck, but on the other hand, it is still too early for him to decide on a real successor if he designates him through the post of prime minister.

Medvedev will definitely remain as prime minister until the 2021 State Duma elections. And then, if Putin decides to bring a successor into the game or it is necessary to solve aggravated economic problems, he will appoint someone more serious, a political figure, to this post. But it is impossible to predict which camp this figure will come from. In the meantime, Putin is demonstrating that the problem of succession has been resolved and that this is not a new six-year term, but the same twelve-year term.

Andrey Kolyadin, political scientist

There are three main reasons why Medvedev remains prime minister. First, he is a professional. He was both president and prime minister, so he knows all the nuances and background of this work. He does not need to learn anything and build internal relationships that are the basis effective work. The second reason: he is a lightning rod that diverts the main blows of discontent from Putin economic policy, and thus removes the negative from the presidential vertical. And third, any other person appointed to this position will be perceived by a certain part of the elite as a potential successor. This will divide the vertical of presidential power that has developed with such difficulty and force a certain part of the elite to rush to a potential successor, which will reduce the effectiveness of the president's management.

I think Medvedev will remain in the post of prime minister until the moment when the "Successor" project arises and when it will be necessary to prepare an appropriate candidate for the post of the first person of the state. Unless, of course, a decision is made to follow a different scenario and, for example, by carrying out a constitutional reform, preserve Vladimir Putin's influence in society.

It seems to me that Medvedev will not become a successor: the negative attitude towards him is too high. But despite the fact that society has accumulated irritation towards him, as a manager, as a prime minister, he is very professional and safe for most elites.

The real or alleged resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018 has repeatedly been the focus of media attention, latest news on this topic today are connected with the long absence of the Russian prime minister at public events. Has the head of government really left his post?

Disappearance of the Prime Minister

The Prime Minister has not appeared in public or on television since 14 August. On that day, he met with Andrey Travnikov, the acting governor of the Novosibirsk Region. And this is the last public event to date, in which the prime minister took a personal part.

His disappearance for so long term gave rise to speculation about the resignation of the second person in the state. The most logical and harmless version that Dmitry Anatolyevich is on vacation has not been confirmed.

There is evidence that his work schedule for the period from August 14 to 24 is quite tight, and there were important events, meetings that had to be canceled.

Thus, the last meeting of the Security Council, held by the President on August 22, was held without the participation of the prime minister. Permanent members of this body, ministers and heads of structures directly related to issues of state security met in Sochi. The Prime Minister, contrary to custom, was not among them, he did not take part in the discussion of the current socio-economic situation, the state of Russian-American relations and the situation in Syria.

It is interesting. One of Medvedev's last public appearances was an official visit to Kamchatka, during which he held a meeting of the regional commission and visited a black volcanic sand beach.

A jar of sand, on which the prime minister allegedly walked, was put up by one of the residents of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky for an online auction for 100,000 rubles.

Short May resignation

The topic of the resignation of the current prime minister and his government is raised not for the first time. The message that Putin fired Medvedev, which appeared on one of the Internet news portals on April 1, 2018, was doubtful due to the date of publication. However, many readers did not take it as a joke at all, but responded with comments in the style of "it's high time!".

It should be noted that petitions demanding the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev have been appearing on the Internet for a long time, they are created by different users, addressed to the President, the Constitutional Court, the Federal Assembly, they announce the collection of signatures:

• Alexander Li's petition was created 2 years ago, collected almost 300 thousand signatures, after which the collection was closed;
• Yevgeny Kleymenov created the petition 4 months ago, the collection of signatures continues, so far only 111 have been collected;
• 4 weeks ago, another petition appeared, created by Georgy Fedorov and caused a more noticeable reaction, it has already been signed by almost 16 thousand people.

Perhaps back in April, the prime minister decided to listen to the voice of the people, perhaps elected on new term The President, indeed, expressed his dissatisfaction with the activities of the Cabinet. But the April Fool's joke turned out to be prophetic: on April 11, speaking in the Duma with a report on the work of the government, Medvedev announced his intention to resign after the inauguration of the President. By the way, that report served as a pretext for another wave of discontent and claims against the head of the current government: too much in it did not correspond to reality.

On May 7, Medvedev's resignation was accepted, but the President immediately invited him to head the new government. The very next day, his candidacy was put to a vote in the Duma, and 374 deputies spoke out in support of extending the powers of the prime minister. Representatives of the communists opposed Just Russia”, but their votes did not play a decisive role. Thus, Dmitry Medvedev again became the head of government, and his resignation lasted only 1 day. And now, recently, the possible resignation of Dmitry Medvedev is again exaggerated in the media. Is it true or not that the prime minister resigned? And what explains his unusually long absence from the screens?

Secret Revealed

In fairness, it should be noted that the Prime Minister did not stop working at all, he simply temporarily refrains from participating in public events. He continues to send official telegrams, new posts appear on his behalf on Facebook. Recently, Medvedev, on behalf of the Russian government:

• congratulated opera singer Bela Rudenko on her jubilee;
• expressed his condolences on the death of Kofi Annan;
• congratulated Sergei Rumas, head of the Cabinet of Ministers of Belarus, on this appointment.

And on August 23, the press service denied rumors about the resignation of the head of government, explaining the temporary decrease in his activity as a result of a sports injury. Dmitry Medvedev, indeed, is fond of badminton, perhaps it was during one of the training sessions that an injury was received, which now does not allow him to hold public events and take part in them.

However, there is another version of events. The popularity of the government declined sharply after the adoption of the pension reform. In particular, economist-analyst Mikhail Khazin said that after this reform and the devaluation of the ruble, the Medvedev government is living its last days.

There is evidence that in the near future Vladimir Putin plans to announce a relaxation of the law on pensions, to act as a "good tsar" who corrects the mistakes of a "bad minister".

And the rumors about the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018, which are fueled by the latest news, are most welcome today. They prepare the ground for the speech of the President. In the meantime, the press service promises that already on August 27 the head of government will return to his duties in full.