The UN has presented a new forecast of the world's population. UN and population issues

UN, March 12 - RIA Novosti, Dmitry Gornostaev. The new UN forecast on the state of the population turned out to be quite optimistic for Russia: the rate of decline in the number of residents of the Russian Federation has decreased significantly compared to the previous report a month ago.

According to a forecast released on Wednesday by the UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs, Russia's population will decrease by 24 million people by 2050 to 116.097 million. The previous report of the UN Secretary General "World Demographic Trends", prepared in January of this year, predicted a reduction in the Russian population by 33 million people. And the November report of the UN Population Fund was even less optimistic, predicting a decrease in the number of Russians by 2050 by 34 million - to 107.8 million inhabitants.

According to a new UN forecast, the Russian population will decrease over four decades by 17.6% from the 2009 figure of 140.874 million. In 2015, 137.983 million people will live in Russia, in 2025 - 132.345 million.

Russia has the eighth highest rate of population decline - Bulgaria is in the lead here, the number of residents of which will decrease by 28.5% in 41 years. It is followed immediately by four republics of the former USSR - Belarus (24.5%), Moldova (24.1%), Ukraine (23.4%) and Lithuania (21.5%).

Life expectancy of Russians has increased

The increase in the total fertility rate - the ratio of the number of newborns to women - was the main reason for the change in the forecast for the better for Russia, experts from the Population Division of the UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs explained to RIA Novosti. The rate increased from 1.30 in 2000-2005 to 1.37 in 2005-2010 and is projected to reach 1.83 by 2050. However, even in this case it will not return to the indicators of Soviet times: in the RSFSR in 1975-1980 it was 1.94.

In the world as a whole, this figure continues to gradually decline: from 3.83 in 1975-1980 to the current 2.56. Forecast for 2050 - 2.02.

The second factor that made it possible to give more optimistic estimates was a decrease in mortality rates and an increase in life expectancy.

In addition, as experts clarified, the current report is the most accurate in the entire UN system, since it uses the latest data - both official and reliable unofficial - from open sources. This forecast is the first to be based on 2008 data. All previous reports, including those of the Secretary General, were based on figures and trends from 2006, which actually reflected the state of affairs in 2005.

However, according to experts, changes in indicators in Russia by 7% or almost 8 million people for the better are not a simple mathematical correction, but a reflection of trends towards improving the situation in the country. “After a period of decline in fertility, the most noticeable period of which occurred in 2000-2005, strong growth has begun over the past two to three years,” explained the Population Department.

According to a new report, life expectancy in the Russian Federation in 2005-2010 is 66.5 years; for 2010-2015 it is predicted to be almost 68 years; for 2015-2020 - 69.3 years; for 2020-2025 - already in 70 years, and in the period 2045-2050, life expectancy should be almost three-quarters of a century - 74.9 years.

At the same time, a trend towards a reduction in infant mortality per thousand live births is predicted. Now this figure in Russia is 11.9. In 2015-2020, UN experts predict its decline to 10.5, and by 2045-2050 - to 7.3. However, this is significantly lower than even the current rates of many Western countries.

But in general, UN experts note, “we are quite optimistic in our forecasts for Russia and believe that life expectancy will increase and mortality will decrease.”

The high level of migration also makes a contribution, although, according to experts, it is much less significant than the increase in the birth rate and the decrease in mortality.

Russia leaves the top ten most populated countries

According to 2009 data, Russia ranks 9th in the world in terms of population. The leadership is still retained by China, where 1.346 billion people live. India has almost caught up with it - 1.198 billion people live there. The United States follows far behind with 315 million. Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria settled between the top three and Russia. Next after the Russian Federation, in tenth place, is Japan.

It is noteworthy that among European countries, Germany has the highest figure - 16th place with 82 million inhabitants.

In 2050, changes to this list will be significant. Russia will leave the top ten, moving to 14th place, and India, whose population will increase to 1.614 billion, will knock out the seemingly unchanged leader, China, from first place, where “only” 1.417 billion people will live. “Bronze” will remain with the Americans - by that time, as predicted, there will be 404 million of them.

The countries that are ahead of Russia now will include Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Philippines, Egypt and Mexico.

The Europeans will finally give up their positions. In 2050, the most populous country of the Old World - Great Britain - will have a population of only 72 million people (25th place), that is, 10 million less than Germany, the leader on the continent today. By the way, Germany itself will be one line lower - with 71 million.

The average Russian will age by six years

Russia will follow the global trend of population aging. A previous report by the UN Secretary General stated that in 2050 the number of people over 60 years of age will for the first time exceed the number of children under 15 years of age.

The average Russian will age six years over the next four decades. Now the average age of a Russian resident is 37.9 years. By 2050 it will be 44 years. The main reason is the reduction in the number of the most able-bodied part of the population (from 15 to 59 years old): now it makes up 67.4% of all citizens of the Russian Federation, and in 2050 it is projected to decrease to 52.1%.

The number of children under 15 will increase slightly - from 14.8% to 16.2%, but the number of pensioners will increase much more noticeably. People over 60 years old in Russia will be 31.7% (against the current 17.8%), and over 80 years old - 6.0% against the current 2.8%.

Because ten girls have less money than nine guys...

In Russia, as in most former Soviet republics, according to a UN report, there remains a shortage of men. There are only 86 of them per hundred representatives of the fair sex in the Russian Federation - one of the lowest figures among UN member countries.

Below - only in Latvia - 85. A similar picture is in Ukraine and Estonia - 86, a little more in Armenia and Belarus - 87, in Lithuania - 88, in Georgia - 89, in Moldova - 90.

Most men - 205 per 100 women - live in the United Arab Emirates.

In general, in the world there are slightly more representatives of the stronger sex than women - in a ratio of 102 to 100.

According to a report released on Wednesday, there are now 6 billion 829 million 360 thousand people living on Earth. By 2050, the planet's population is projected to increase to 9 billion 150 million people. This is the data from the so-called “average forecast” from which indicators for countries are calculated. According to the "minimum forecast" there will be only 7 billion 959 million earthlings in 2050, and according to the "maximum" - 10 billion 461 million. The main increase is projected to come from developing countries.

The planet's population will increase by two billion people over the next 30 years and reach 9.7 billion people by mid-century. By the same time, the population of Russia may decrease to 124.6 million people. This forecast is contained in the published report United Nations (UN) on global demographic changes.

According to the pessimistic UN forecast, by 2050 the population of the Russian Federation will decrease from the current 145.9 million to 124.6 million people, and by 2100 - to 83.7 million, that is, almost twice. According to an optimistic forecast, in 30 years there will be 147.2 million people living in Russia, and in 2100 - 182.1 million. The average forecast for these time frames is 135.8 million and 126.1 million, respectively.

From the UN report it follows that Russia now has one of the lowest ratios of men to women in the world - there are 86.4 men per 100 women.

The birth rate in Russia is expected to decrease from 9.29 million births in 2015-2020 to 8.24 million in 2020-2025. The minimum figure for the entire century will be 7.08 million babies in 2030-2035. After this, the birth rate in Russia will begin to increase, according to the UN.

According to UN forecasts, by 2100 the world's population will be 10.8 billion. By 2027, India could overtake China in population growth, the report says. Besides India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States are expected to see the largest population growth in the coming decades. Sub-Saharan Africa's population is expected to nearly double by 2050.

Russia Population Projections

Let's take a closer look at the results of the latest, 24th cycle of UN calculations for the 2015 revision for Russia.

As already mentioned, during this cycle of calculations, probabilistic forecasts of fertility and mortality were implemented for each country in the world. Median trajectories from the set of predicted trajectories of total fertility and life expectancy formed the basis for the average (median) version of the forecast. In addition, 80% and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to estimate future trends.

According to the UN median forecast, Russia's population will decrease to 138.7 million people by mid-2030, with an 80% probability of between 136.3 and 141.1 million people, and with a 95% probability of 135.1 to 142.5 million people (Fig. 10). By 2050, with a 95% probability, the population of Russia will range from 119.1 to 138.6 million people, and according to the median forecast - 128.6 million people.

The population decline compared to the 2015 baseline will be 3.3% by 2030 according to the median forecast, and with a 95% probability - from -5.8% to -0.7%.

By 2050, population decline will increase according to the median forecast to 10.4% compared to 2015, and with a 95% probability - from -17.0% to -3.4%.

Figure 10. UN estimates (1950-2015) and probabilistic forecasts (2015-2100) of the Russian population, 2015 revision,

As in the previous three cycles of calculations, 8 variants of the deterministic forecast were worked out in more detail. Particular attention is paid to the consequences of different fertility trajectories. 5 options for fertility forecast were considered: the middle option corresponds to the median trajectory of the total fertility rate from a bundle of several tens of thousands of probabilistic trajectories for each country (it can be implemented with a probability of 50%), the high fertility option involves using coefficient values ​​0.5 higher, the low option the birth rate is 0.5 lower than in the average option. In addition, the option of a constant birth rate (without changes at the level of 2010-2015) and a birth rate that ensures simple reproduction was considered. These fertility options were combined with options for “normal” or “average” mortality (the median trajectory from a bundle of hundreds of thousands of probabilistic trajectories of life expectancy by sex at birth for each country) and “normal migration.” In addition, the options of constant mortality (remaining unchanged at the level of 2010-2015), zero migration and constant fertility and mortality were considered (Table 3).

Table 3. Scheme of options for forecast calculations of the 2015 revision

The global population projections derived from these projections lie within a wider range of possible values, limited by low and high fertility scenarios (with “normal” mortality, implying increased life expectancy, and “normal” migration). By mid-2030, Russia's population could be, according to these estimates, from 133.6 to 143.7 million people, and by mid-2050 - from 114.6 to 143.3 million people (Fig. 11).

Only if the “high birth rate” option is implemented, the population of Russia may be higher in 2030 than in 2015 (by 0.2%), according to all other forecast options, population decline is expected. It will be minimal when implementing the “simple reproduction” option (-0.1%), the most significant when implementing the “low birth rate” forecast option (-6.9%) and the “no changes” forecast option (-6.1%) .

By 2050, the population of Russia will decrease compared to 2015 according to all eight forecast options. The reduction will range from -20% if the “low birth rate” option is implemented to -0.1% if the “high birth rate” forecast option is implemented.

Figure 11. UN estimates (1950-2015) and deterministic projections (2015-2100) of the Russian population, 2015 revision,
million people at mid-year

The average annual growth rate of the Russian population according to all eight UN forecast options will decrease in the next decade, remaining positive only under the “high birth rate” option (in 2015-2025) and the “simple reproduction” option (in 2015-2020). Until 2040 they will be negative, that is, the population will decline according to all forecast options (Fig. 12). Only starting from 2040-2045 is it possible to resume population growth according to the “high birth rate” option and from 2065-2070. according to the “simple reproduction” option.

If the “medium” version of the forecast is implemented, the average annual growth rate, while remaining negative, will approach zero at the end of the current century, and if the “low” version of the forecast is implemented, it will stabilize in the second half of the century at a level of about -1% per year.

The considered forecast options indicate that, under certain conditions, maintaining the growth trend in Russia's population is possible, but unlikely. Under the most favorable conditions, its value will be insignificant - most likely within 0.2% per year. Population loss is more likely, and at a greater intensity - up to -0.5% per year or more.

Figure 12. Average annual population growth in Russia according to estimates (1950-2015) and deterministic UN forecasts (2015-2100),
revision 2015, %*

According to UN forecasts, a small natural increase in Russia's population in the coming years is possible only if scenarios of high fertility or a direct transition to “simple reproduction” are implemented (Fig. 13). However, in the latter case, due to the peculiarities of the age structure of the Russian population, negative natural growth is inevitable in 2020-2045 and close to zero in 2045-2070. If the high version of the fertility forecast is implemented, natural increase is possible starting from 2045-2050, and its value may exceed 0.6‰ in the last third of the century.

All other forecast options show the inevitability of natural population decline in Russia of varying intensity. According to UN estimates, in 2010-2015 the rate of natural increase averaged -1.1‰ per year. In 2015-2020, its value will be from -3.7‰ according to the “low birth rate” option to +0.8‰ according to the “simple reproduction” option, and in 2025-2030 - from -7.4‰ according to the “low birth rate” option. birth rate” to -1.5‰ according to the “high birth rate” option. According to the “average birth rate” option, the intensity of natural decline will increase until the 2030s. In 2015-2020 it will average -1.9‰ per year and -5.1‰ in 2030-2035. In the future, the intensity of natural decline will weaken - to -1‰ per year in the 2080s.

Figure 13. Natural population growth in Russia according to estimates (1950-2015) and UN forecasts (2015-2100), revision 2015, per 1000 people*

* based on five-year intervals, the beginning of the interval is marked on the graph

In the UN forecast calculations for the 2015 revision, the only option for “normal migration” was used (except for the option for “zero migration”). For Russia, it assumed a decrease in the migration growth rate from 1.6‰ in 2010-2015 to 1.1‰ in 2015-2020 and 0.7‰ in 2020-2070. In absolute terms, the hypothesis was that the amount of migration growth would decrease from 1,118 thousand people for 2010-2015 (224 thousand people on average per year) to 809 thousand people for 2015-2020 (162) and 500 thousand people for all the next five years until the middle of the century (100 thousand people on average per year). It was assumed that by the end of the century the migration increase would be reduced to 50 thousand people per year.

Despite the fact that the UN hypotheses for Russia, in accordance with the latest revision in 2015, look like the most favorable ones since the early 2000s, they are still far from the optimistic forecasts of Rosstat (Table 4).

It is worth recalling, however, that since 2014, Rosstat’s forecasts have taken into account data for Crimea. But the discrepancy cannot be explained only by the additional population of the peninsula - more than 2.3 million people, since in 2050, according to the average version of the Rosstat forecast, the population of our country should be about 146.3 million people, that is, about 17 million above the median indicators latest UN forecasts.

The differences are largely due to different amounts of projected migration growth. UN experts propose that from 2020 to 2050 we should focus on a migration growth rate of 500 thousand people every 5 years, and Rosstat’s forecast indicators exceed these estimates by more than a million people every five years. Thus, due to migration, the discrepancy in estimates of the population of Russia according to the average version of the Rosstat forecast and according to the average version of the UN forecast is about 8 million people.

It is also worth noting that the increase in the birth rate (especially at the end of the period) according to the Rosstat forecast occurs much faster than the UN forecast, as well as the scenario for increasing life expectancy, which domestic experts look more optimistic.

Table 4. Comparison of average UN scenarios (2015 revision)
and Rosstat (2016)

* average values ​​for the period

UN: Russia's population will decrease to 136.5 million by 2035

Review of forecasts on the state of the Russian economy in 7 years - in 2025. Today we present to our readers an overview of forecasts about the state of the world economy. The picture that will open before our eyes will be grandiose - although consulting agencies, think tanks and international organizations do not foresee anything extraordinary. No flights to Mars, no arrival of Martians. There will simply be more of everything - and, above all, more people.

© RIA Novosti / Vladimir Astapkovich

Population

According to UN forecasts, the world's population will exceed 8 billion people by 2025. We will live longer, so the number of older people will increase: by 2025, 1.2 billion people will have crossed the sixty-year mark. The total assets of the rich with wealth exceeding $1 million by 2025, according to Capgemini forecast, will jump from $63.5 trillion last year to $100 trillion.

The pace of urbanization will slow down. McKinsey & Company believes that the birth rate in cities is steadily declining, and the influx of migrants is drying up. Thus, according to the company’s forecast, by 2025 the number of residents of megacities in developed countries will decrease by another 17%. In the USA, the rate of urbanization will decrease to 1 % per year, in Europe - to 0.5% (from the current 0.7%). On the other hand, according to Nielsen, the importance of the global middle class will increase - now it makes up about 20% of the world population, and by 2025 it will already be 37-40%. But at the same time, it will account for 53% of total consumer spending.

By the middle of this century, half the world's population will be concentrated in just 9 countries: the USA, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Congo, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan and - of course - China.

Oil market

For Russia, forecasts about the state of the global hydrocarbon market are probably especially relevant (“ Invest-Foresight" has already publishedinterview with Vladimir Milovidov about the near future of the global energy market). But authoritative think tanks do not promise us any cataclysms - the growth in fuel demand will continue to grow. As stated by a senior partner at McKinsey&Company Georgy Kobulia, although the growth of global oil demand will slow significantly by 2030, it is still an increase, not a decrease; in parallel, the growth of refining capacity will continue to outpace production, which will be concentrated primarily in Asia and the Middle East. By 2025, the net increase in imports of light oil products in Southeast Asia will be 628 thousand barrels per day, limiting the maximum load of Asian energy hubs to 78 percent in that year. Alternative energy will not stop the demand for oil: according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), by 2025 the average cost of producing electricity from solar and wind energy could drop by up to 59%. Increased demand will contribute to higher oil prices. The latest report from analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that by 2025 the price of oil will reach $83. The IEA worsened its price forecast compared to last year's estimate: then experts suggested that the average cost of raw materials would be $101 per barrel in 2025 and $125 in 2040. One of the factors deteriorating the IEA forecast was the reduction in the cost of projects in Upstream ( projects related to the search for deposits and their development - ed.).

USA overtakes Saudi Arabia

The balance of power in the market will change. As the IEA predicts, by 2025, shale oil will help the United States become the world leader in “black gold” production. By that time, Saudi Arabia will be in second place, and Russia will move to third place. According to the IEA forecast, by 2025 Saudi Arabia will increase production to 12.3 million barrels per day. Production will also increase in Iraq and Iran - by 0.5 million and 0.7 million barrels, respectively. However, the overall production of oil and gas condensate in OPEC countries will remain virtually unchanged in the next eight years and could reach 39.8 million barrels per day compared to 39.6 million in 2016.

Compared to the previous forecast, IEA experts lowered the production estimate within the oil cartel by 1.1 million barrels. It is expected that there will be a reduction in production by 0.8 million barrels due to Algeria, Venezuela, Angola and Nigeria. In Russia, by 2025, IEA analysts predict a decrease in oil production from the current 11 million barrels per day to 10.5 million.

The international cartel OPEC agrees with the IEA that shale oil production will increase significantly in the future. According to the organization's forecasts, in 2025 production will reach 825 barrels per day - almost 50% more than in 2016. OPEC analysts believe that the United States will become the largest producer of shale oil in the next decade, with only small volumes produced by Russia, Canada, etc.

Cars will switch to electricity

Forecasts for oil demand growth, as we see, do not consider the threat of the transition of vehicles to electricity fatal - although Shell forecasts that the global fleet of electric vehicles will grow by 10% by 2025, displacing oil demand by up to about 800,000 barrels per day. The necessary technologies are gradually being developed: head of the Volkswagen Group Matthias Müller promised that by 2025, battery capacity will increase significantly: we are talking about gigawatt-hours. The head of the automaker is echoed by the AlixPartners agency, which predicts that by 2025 the costs of producing batteries for electric vehicles should approach those of producing internal combustion engines. According to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by this time the cost of electric cars will be equal to the average price of conventional cars, and according to UBS forecasts, by this year one in three cars in Europe will be electric.

Incredible data flow

Predictions about the future of information technology come down mainly to how the sector’s quantitative indicators will increase—the volume of computing power, information flows, etc. Thus, according to IDC estimates, today new data is generated at a rate of 16.1 zettabytes per year, and in 2025 this figure will reach 163 zettabytes per year - that is, it will multiply by 10 times. By 2025, 20% of stored information will become necessary for everyday life, and 10% will be directly related to people’s health and well-being.

Forecasters are particularly interested in the Internet of Things, which will become the most important trend shaping the technological environment of the future. IEEE predicts that the number of smart sensors that collect information from the environment will increase to 75 billion by 2025. IoT technologies will allow you to monitor all aspects of city life: traffic speed, street safety, resource consumption in real time. According to Ericsson forecasts, by 2025 the global network will reach 1.5 billion connections, and total global revenue from IoT technologies will reach $200 billion.

Of course, cars will be an important source of data: Toyota predicts that data flow between the cloud and cars will reach 10 exobytes per month by 2025, 10,000 times more than today.

Of course, along with quantitative changes, we should expect qualitative transformations, including market monopolization in certain segments. Oracle predicts that by 2025, 80% of the global SaaS market will be owned by two large vendors, and all new applications will be distributed according to this model.

Tractica forecasts that shipments of all types of deep learning processors, which totaled 863,000 units last year, will increase to 41.2 million units by 2025. In monetary terms, the market will grow from $513 million to $12.2 billion, which corresponds to an average annual growth of 42.2%.

New standards

Other trends are predicted in the field of high technology. For example, the TV market will be dominated by 4K TVs: Grand View Research predicts that by 2025, more than half of the American population will own at least one 4K TV. In the mobile communications market, we can expect the victorious promotion of the 5G standard. Juniper Research estimates that 5G service operator revenues will grow at a CAGR of 161% between 2019 and 2025. Juniper experts include five companies in the list of “most promising” operators in terms of opportunities to launch 5G: SK Telecom in South Korea, NTT Docomo in Japan, KT Corp in South Korea, China Mobile in China and AT&TMobility in the United States. Ovum analysts also predict that the number of subscribers to fifth generation mobile networks (5G) will grow at a much faster rate than previously expected: by the end of 2022, 389 million subscribers will connect to fifth generation mobile networks around the world. According to the GSMA forecast, more than 1.1 billion 5G users are expected by 2025.

People are inferior to robots

The development of high technologies and artificial intelligence cannot but lead to an exacerbation of technological unemployment. According to research by American economists Darona Acemoglu And Pascual Restrepo, industrial robots could put up to 6 million Americans out of work within a decade. According to scientists, by 2025 the ratio of the number of working Americans to the total population of the country will decrease by 0.94-1.76 percentage points.

PwC in its review indicated that more than 10 million UK workers are at risk of losing their jobs in the next 15 years due to automation of production and services - 30% of jobs in the country will be occupied by robots by the early 2030s.

Over the next 30 years, the world population will increase by 2 billion people from today's 7.7 billion people, and by the end of the century there will be about 11 billion people living on the planet. At the same time, the number of Russian residents may decrease from 145 million to 99.7 million people by 2078. These estimates are given in a new paper on population change. The report is posted on website organizations.

According to a more optimistic UN forecast, the population of Russia will increase to 160 million people. The average median value for 2078 is 127.4 million people.

The report also reports that in Russia there are 86.4 men per 100 women. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. Fewer men than women live in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Hong Kong, and Nepal. According to UN forecasts, the rate will increase, but very slowly: by 2060, there will be 90.2 men per 100 women.

The median age of a Russian resident is 39.6 years. According to the report, the country's population will age and by 2035 the average age of Russians will be 44 years.

At the same time, the birth rate in Russia will decrease: from 9.29 million newborns in 2015-2020 to 7.08 million newborns in 2030-2035.

India is expected to have the highest population growth by 2050, overtaking China in population around 2027. India, along with eight other countries, will account for more than half of the projected population growth between now and 2050.

The largest growth is expected in nine countries: India, Nigeria and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, the United States of America and Ethiopia. Overall, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double by 2050.

However, the growth in these countries occurs against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global birth rate. In 1990, the average number of births per woman was 3.2. By 2019, this figure had dropped to 2.5 births per woman, and by 2050, it is projected to decrease to 2.2 births: in order to avoid a decline in the country's population in the long term (in the absence of immigration), it is necessary to ensure a birth rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Populations in an increasing number of countries are declining.

Since 2010, 27 countries and regions have seen declines of at least 1% due to persistently low fertility rates. This trend is expected to spread to 55 countries between now and 2050, with almost half of them seeing population declines of at least 10%.

In some cases, population decline is exacerbated by high rates of emigration. Migration flows have become the main reason for population changes in some regions. Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are experiencing the largest outflows driven by demand for migrant workers, while Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are the countries with the largest numbers leaving due to violence, armed conflict and insecurity. In countries where populations are declining, immigration is expected to help cope - especially in Belarus, Estonia and Germany.

“Most of the time, rapid population growth occurs in the poorest countries, where it creates additional problems,”

- notes Liu Zhenming, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

Countries must fight poverty and hunger, achieve greater equality, and improve health care and education.

At the same time, growth offers opportunity for many developing countries: recent declines in fertility mean that the working-age population (25 to 64) is growing faster than other age groups, which could improve opportunities for faster economic growth.

According to the report's authors, by 2050, every sixth person on Earth will be over 65 years old (today - every eleventh). In some regions, including North Africa, Asia and Latin America, the proportion of older people is expected to double over the next 30 years.

In Europe and North America, the proportion of people over 65 will reach a quarter by 2050.

The increase in the proportion and number of older people is expected to place increased financial pressure on countries in the coming decades, placing additional costs on public health and social protection systems and affecting pensions.

Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will remain low. The average life expectancy of a person born in one of the least developed countries today will be about seven years shorter than that of a child born in one of the developed countries. The main reasons are high levels of child and maternal mortality, violence and the spread of HIV.

The United Nations has released the 23rd World Population Prospects. By 2025, the world population could reach 8.1 billion people, and by mid-century reach 9.6 billion. There will be no sharp contrasts in life expectancy between countries; by 2050 it will reach an average of 77 years. The online journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics “Demoscope” talks about the key provisions of the UN prognosis Weekly»

According to UN calculations, Demoscope writes, population growth will continue until the end of the century, although it will stabilize in the last third.

In Fig. 1. Other scenarios are also given, each of which primarily depends on the birth rate.

1. Constant birth rate. If the birth rate in every country in the world remains at the level of 2005-2010, and the death rate stabilizes, then the world population will exceed 11 billion people by the middle of the century, and by the end of the century it will increase to 28.6 billion people. However, as follows from the UN material, such a scenario is unlikely, since in countries with high birth rates it is declining.
2. If by 2015 the birth rate in each country approaches the level of simple population reproduction (generation replacement), that is, the total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of births per woman of reproductive age - will be 2.1, then by 2050 . The world population will be 9.1 billion people, and in 2100 - 9.9 billion people. However, it is obvious that in countries with the fastest growing populations, the TFR is unlikely to rapidly decrease to 2.1.

Least developed countries will have twice the population of developed countries

The population of more developed countries will remain almost constant, slowly increasing from 1.2 billion people in 2010 to 1.3 billion people in 2031. It will stabilize at this level until the end of the 21st century.

At the same time, the population of the least developed countries will more than triple, increasing from 0.8 billion people in 2010 to 2.9 billion in 2100. According to the average forecast, the population of the 49 least developed countries of the world will exceed the population of developed countries in 2031. , and by the end of the century it will exceed it more than twice (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Population of countries with different levels of development according to the average forecast, 1950-2100, billion people.

The population of the remaining developing countries, including the most populous - China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, will reach its maximum, according to the average forecast, in the 2080s, increasing from 4.8 billion people in 2010 to 6.7 billion people. It will begin to decline slowly at the end of the century, reaching 6.6 billion people in 2100.

Demoscope comes to the conclusion that the share of developed countries in the world population will inevitably continue to decline, while the share of the least developed countries, on the contrary, will grow. The share of the population of developed countries has decreased from almost a third of the world's population - 32.2% - in 1950 to 17.5% in 2013. By 2050, according to the average forecast, this share will drop to 13.6%.

In developed countries of the world, the average annual population growth rate in 2005-2010. amounted to 0.42%. This is higher than the value of the previous decade, but noticeably lower than that of the least developed countries (2.284%). According to the average forecast, the population growth rate of developed countries will fall to zero in the middle of the century, and will stabilize at a slightly lower level in the second half of the century. In other words, Demoscope explains, there will be a slight population decline, which can be partially compensated by migration.

The share of the population of the world's least developed countries in 2013 was 12.5%, but by mid-century it could increase to 19% according to the average forecast.

Demographic race of continents

Throughout the 21st century, Asia will remain the most populous region, the magazine quotes UN experts. However, Africa's population will grow fastest. According to the average forecast, it will increase from 1.1 billion people in 2013 to 4.2 billion people in 2100.

According to UN estimates, in 2010, almost 60% of the world's population lived in Asia, 15.5% in Africa, 10.4% in Europe. Until the early 1990s, Europe had the second largest population among regions. In 1996, Africa replaced it - 734 million versus 730 million people.

The average annual population growth rate in Africa is twice as high as in Asia (2.465% versus 1.098% in 2010-2015). It reached the first billion in 2009, and according to forecasts, it will reach the second in 2040.

Asia's population will increase from 4.3 billion to 5.2 billion in the middle of the century, after which it will gradually decline. Asia's population is now four times that of Africa. And by the end of the century the excess will be only 13%.

Together, Europe, North and South America and Oceania have a population of about 1.7 billion people. It will exceed 2 billion in 2054, according to UN experts. In the late 2060s, the population of these countries will begin to decline, but not below 2 billion people before the end of the century.

Europe's population has already almost reached its maximum - 744 million people in 2017-2020. The population of Latin America and the Caribbean will peak in the early 2060s (792 million).

In 2050, according to the average version of the UN forecast, more than half of the world's population will live in Asia, a quarter in Africa, 8.2% in Latin America, 7.4% in Europe, 4.7% in North America.

Contrasts in fertility will decrease

According to UN estimates, in 2005-2010. The total fertility rate of the world population was 2.53, but this average masked significant differences.

In 2005-2010 in 75 countries of the world, including 45 developed countries, the TFR value was below 2.1 children per woman, that is, the birth rate in these countries did not ensure simple replacement of generations. The combined population of these countries is 3.3 billion people, or 48.2% of the world's population.

The remaining 126 countries, home to 3.5 billion people (51.2% of the world's population), had a TFR of 2.1 or more. This group included only 2 countries from the developed group (Iceland and New Zealand), the rest belonged to the developing group. In 31 countries, of which 28 were classified as least developed, the TFR was 5 or more children per woman. According to surveys and censuses, the decline in fertility in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa has turned out to be more moderate than previously estimated, or has slowed down altogether.

According to the average fertility scenario, by the middle of the century the number of countries with fertility below the replacement level will almost double and amount to 139 in 2045-2050. Such countries will be home to 7.1 billion people, or 75.2% of the world's population. By the end of the century, the number of such countries will increase to 184.

Demoscope draws attention to the trend of narrowing differences in fertility between major groups of countries. This is explained by two processes:

1. For the population of developed countries, the TFR will gradually increase - from 1.663 in 2005-2010 to 1.854 in 2045-2050 and 1.927 in 2095-2100.
2. For the population of developing countries, the value of this coefficient, on the contrary, will decrease from 2.687 in 2005-2010. to 2,287 in 2045-2050. and 1.993 in 2095-2100.

In fact, TFR in developed and developing countries is projected to stabilize at a level slightly below the level of simple reproduction—generation replacement (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Total fertility rate for groups of countries with different levels of development according to the average version of the fertility forecast, 1950-2100, children per woman

In the group of least developed countries with a higher birth rate, the implementation of the average forecast will lead to a continuation of the trend of rapid decline in the birth rate in the coming decades - from 4,531 in 2005-2010. to 2.868 in 2045-2050 and 2.111 in 2095-2100. That is, the fertility curves of different countries will almost converge at one point by the end of the century.

Aging motherhood and increasing life expectancy

“Demoscope” recalls the tendency of the maximum birth rate to shift to later ages - from 30 years. Postponement of births is partly due to the widespread participation of women in education and economic employment, the magazine comments. “The peak of fertility will shift to the group of 25-29 years, closer to the age of 30,” the material clarifies.

The “aging” of motherhood is clearly visible in developed countries. The contribution to the total fertility of women aged 30-40 years will increase from 42% in 2005-2010. to 58.3% in the middle of the century with a noticeable decrease in the contribution of the birth rate of younger ages: 20-24 years old - from 21.4% to 10.8%.

In the group of least developed countries, the age profile of fertility does not change so radically. But for them, according to the average forecast, the contribution to the birth rate of younger groups will decrease.

World average life expectancy in 2005-2010. was 68.7 years. By mid-century, this figure will increase to 77 years. And by the end of the century it will reach 82 years (note that now an average life expectancy comparable to this figure - 80-83 years - is noted only in a number of developed countries, such as Japan, Switzerland, Australia, France, Luxembourg).

In 2005-2010 Life expectancy in developed countries averaged 76.9 years. This is 10 years more than the value of this indicator in developing countries (67 years) and 18.5 years more in the least developed countries (58.4). In the future, life expectancy values ​​in these groups of countries will gradually converge, the UN predicts.

Migration is dying down

In developed countries, migration growth increased from 2.3 million people in 1960-1965. to 17.4 million people in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010 The average annual migration “increase” of the population in Europe amounted to 1.9 million people, in North America - 1.3 million, Demoscope cites UN data.

Some developing countries - Thailand, Qatar, Malaysia, Jordan, UAE, Singapore - also have a migration increase in population. Yet overall, emigration predominates in developing countries. In 2000-2010 China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Bangladesh suffered noticeable population losses due to migration outflow.

In calculations until 2050, it is assumed that the migration increase in Europe will decrease by half, and in North America it will stop at around 1.2 million people per year. Emigration from Asia will decrease to exactly the same figure. In Africa, the annual migration loss will increase from 388 thousand people in 2000-2010. up to 498 thousand people in 2040-2050.

In conclusion, writes Demoscope magazine, UN experts predict an acceleration of the aging of the world population. The median age of the population will increase from 27 years in 2010 to 41 years at the end of the century.

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