Technical analysis of MMVB shares online. Technical analysis of the MMVB index. Fundamental analysis of the industry and the economy as a whole

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Technical analysis of the securities market is a price forecasting system based on information received as a result of market trading. Unlike, based on the study of the production activities of the enterprise, based on technical analysis lies the selection and study of certain patterns in the movement of the quotes chart.

• In other words, when using technical analysis, a trader, when making a trading operation, is guided only by a graphic image, while he may be completely unaware of the activities of the company whose securities he trades.

Technical analysis of stocks is relevant for short-term trading in securities.

Technical analysis of the investment properties of securities involves many tools, but the main factors on which it depends are trading volume, price dynamics and historical data.

The theory is built on three basic rules:

• The movement has already taken into account various factors that affect price changes. Therefore, it makes no sense to separately study the dependence of prices on political or economic news.
• Price changes do not occur randomly, but are influenced by certain trends. That is, by breaking the chart into time intervals, you can see the price change in one direction.
• Market cycle. When certain situations arise, the reaction of market participants is always the same. Therefore, when they reappear, similar graphical patterns appear on the quotes chart, recognizing which you can predict further price movements.

To evaluate the information, the technical analysis of the stock market has several techniques. They are based on mathematical calculations () and graphic drawings (). And the very first tool for predicting prices was japanese keisen technique. It is successfully used to this day, under the name of Japanese candles.

Japanese candlesticks as a method of stock price analysis

Japanese candlesticks are a type of chart used in the technical analysis of the stock market. It consists of rectangular figures - candles, each of which corresponds to a certain time interval -

• if the chart is with a minute timeframe (M1), then each candle has an interval per minute
• if it's a graph M5- then the candle has an interval of 5 minutes

A candle is made up of two elements - body and shadows. The boundaries of the body show the level of the opening and closing prices for a given time period. And the boundaries of the upper and lower shadows show the maximum and minimum price for the same interval.

There are two types of candles - bullishandbearish. The bullish candle reflects the rise in prices for the specified interval and its body is not painted over. On color charts, a rising candlestick is green and a falling candlestick is red.

• ascending (bullish) Candles upper border of the body - indicates the closing price, and the lower opening price.
• descending (bearish) the candle characterizes the price fall and its body is painted in dark color. On such a candle, the upper boundary of the body indicates the opening price, and the lower one indicates the closing price.

Price forecasting using Japanese candlesticks is based on the analysis of the shape of individual candlesticks, as well as their combinations. There are quite a few different candles that have names and give their signals about a possible change in the market.

Technical analysis of the stock market lends itself easily to the use of candle patterns - this is seen by all professional traders as market participants and act accordingly.

The most accurate forecast is given by candles " the hammer" and " hanged". They signal a chart reversal. Both candles have a small body and a long shadow. "" is located at the bottom of the chart and indicates an upward trend reversal, and " Hanged"- at the top of the chart, indicates a downward trend reversal.

In addition to the “hammer” and “hanging man”, the main types of Japanese candlesticks include the “Morning Star”, “Evening Star”, “Harami”, various “doji”, which also signal a reversal, and “marubozu” - a candle, the appearance of which signals the continuation of the trend. .

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Technical analysis of stocks studies the price behavior in the past in order to predict it in the future, while using a graphical method of reflecting exchange information, as well as applying auxiliary technical indicators to the charts.

Due to the fact that human response to the same market situations most often remains unchanged, stock technical analysis is based on certain formations or patterns that are periodically repeated on the charts.

This fact opens up the possibility of profiting from chart patterns that are renewed over time, some of which signal a fall in price, and some of an increase in value in the future.

In contrast to fundamental analysis (which can only assess the general state of the market), technical analysis of stocks allows you to find the most profitable points for opening and closing transactions, in other words, it makes it possible to determine the favorable moment for making a trade.

The first section of the analysis - technical indicators

Any of these indicators is actually a mathematical formula for calculating the value of a stock for some time period in the past. The result of this calculation is one or more lines on the price chart, which ultimately facilitate the perception of this visual information by bidders. All indicators are grouped in two directions:

1. Trending - used in markets with a clearly defined trend ( , )
2. Counter-trend or - used during periods of no market trend ( , )

It is important to remember that trading signals obtained based on the analysis of indicators are more accurate on long time lags - Day, Week, Month, etc. (their predictive power is the weaker, the shorter the time frame - hour, 15-minute, 1-minute).

In general, indicator signals should not be regarded as a guide to action, they should only be taken as a recommendation, an additional confirming signal (and then at least on daily charts), and graphical models should be used to improve trading efficiency.

The second section of the analysis - types of graphic figures

The price chart is a reflection of the market struggle between the participants in the “stock exchange battle”, and each of its elements indicates a deal. Reflecting the mass behavior of the crowd, the chart very clearly demonstrates the emotions of people trading in the market. Charts can be linear, in the form of bars and in the form of Japanese candlesticks (more about).

If we assume that some market participant knows in advance all subsequent price changes, then for him there is the only optimal strategy in the market, namely, he should sell (including short) securities at price peaks (s) and buy - at troughs (b).

Technical analysis could be defined as the art of identifying peaks and troughs, i.e. turning points in price changes. However, in most markets, prices are capable of changing direction many times over short periods of time, and it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to predict all such reversals. Therefore, technical analysis focuses on significant price reversal points (S and B on the chart). The analysis of such moments makes sense only if, along with random price fluctuations, there are also stable trends in their shift that affect prices over certain time intervals (trends). Based on this assumption, we can give a more precise definition of technical analysis.

Technical analysis is defined as the art of identifying in the early stages of a trend reversal and following that trend until a weighted assessment indicates that the trend has reversed again.

The sequence of peaks and valleys is one of the simplest and perhaps the most effective trend detection methods used in technical analysis. It also underlies many of the methods that will be discussed below.

The most important types of trends

A trend is a directional trend in changes in the price level, limited by a certain time interval. There are many trends, but the three most commonly used are: primary (primary), intermediate (intermediate) and short-term (short-term).

primary trend. The primary trend usually lasts from 1 to 2 years and is a reflection of investors' assessments of the internal processes of the economy that underlie the business cycle. According to statistics, the business cycle from trough to trough lasts approximately 3 to 6 years, which means that the uptrend or downtrend (respectively bull or bear market) lasts from 1 to 2 years. Since "breaking is not building", a bull market usually lasts longer than a bear market.

The primary cycle trend is significant for bonds, stocks (equity) and commodities. The primary trend is also applicable to the currency market, but since the exchange rate is a reflection of investors' assessments of the relationship between two different economies, the analysis of the movement of the exchange rate does not fit directly into the discussed scheme for applying the primary cycle trend. On Fig. 2, the primary trend is shown with a bold line. In an ideal situation, the primary growth (bullish market) is equal to the primary decline (bear market), but in reality, of course, this is not the case and their amplitudes are different.

intermediate trend. From the charts of price changes, it can be seen that prices do not move in straight lines. Movement in the main direction of the primary trend is interrupted by a series of return movements - reactions. These kinds of trends, which are in "opposite phase" to the primary bull market, are known as intermediate (medium-term) price changes. They last from 3 weeks to 6 or more months. On Fig. 2 they are shown with a thin solid line.

Short term trends. Short-term trends lasting from 1 to 3-4 weeks interrupt the movement in the direction of the medium-term trend, just as they interrupt the movement in the direction of the primary trend. On Fig. 1 they are shown with broken lines. They are usually a reaction to random current events, and are much more difficult to detect than primary and intermediate ones. The longer the trend period, the easier it is to identify it.

Market Cycle Model

From now on, we will assume that the price level of any market is simultaneously affected by several different trends, and it is important to understand which of them has a decisive influence at the moment. Thus, if there is a reversal in a short-term trend, then much less price change should be expected than in a reversal of the primary trend, and so on.

For long-term (positional) investors, only the primary trend is of fundamental importance, and it is important for them to evaluate the prospects for a bull or bear market in terms of their profitability. However, long-term investors should also look at intermediate and, to a lesser extent, short-term trends. This is necessary because an important step in the analysis is the study and understanding of the relationships between short-term and intermediate trends and how they affect the primary trend.

For small (scalping) speculators working on very short time periods, small price fluctuations are of fundamental importance, but they also need to know the direction of the intermediate and primary trends. Usually, surprises are to be expected at the top of a bull market and the bottom of a bear market. Short-term uptrends supported by a bull market seem to be much larger than downtrends, and it is exactly the opposite for a bear market. Losses usually come from the fact that the trader establishes a position in the opposite direction of the main trend.

Trends of the day. Nowadays, computing technology and real-time trading allow the investor to track hourly and even instantaneous price changes in the market. The principles of technical analysis are also suitable for use in these cases. However, two main differences should be noted. First, reversal points on hourly charts have only a short-term effect and do not affect reversal points in the long term. And secondly, trading on ultra-short periods is much more influenced by psychological and momentary reactions to ongoing events than trading on long periods. Decisions in these cases are often made under the influence of emotions. On short periods, there are more opportunities for price manipulation. As a consequence, price data for ultra-short-period charts is much more volatile than long-period price data.

Secular trend. The primary trend consists of several intermediate cycles, while the secular, or very long, trend is built from several primary ones. Such a "super cycle", or long wave, lasts a very long time - usually over 10 years, and often 25 years. It is very useful to know the direction of the secular trend. Just as the primary trend sets the relationship between the support and reaction periods of the intermediate trend, so the secular trend affects the magnitude and duration of the support and reaction of the primary trend. In particular, for a secular uptrend, the primary bull market will have a larger amplitude compared to the primary bear market. With a secular downtrend, a bear market will be more powerful and longer lasting than a bull market.

Sequence of peaks and troughs

One simple basic method is the peak-and-trough sequence method, which is based on the pattern observed by Charles Dow that price changes in a rising market are a series of waves in which each successive support or reaction is higher than its predecessor.

An interruption in the sequence of rising peaks and troughs is a reversal signal. Explaining his approach, Dow offered an analogy to the succession of waves on a seashore. He suggested that just as it is possible to determine the change of tides by the behavior of waves, similar results can be obtained by observing the change in prices in the market.

Let us assume a situation in which the peaks and troughs of which are larger than their predecessors. But for the first time, the support cannot reach a new height, and the next reaction "brings" the price below the level of the previous bottom. This occurs at point X and is a signal that a trend reversal has occurred. It may also be that, on the contrary, the trend turns in the direction from decrease to rise. This kind of interpretation of the sequence of peaks and troughs is the basis for both Dow theory and the analysis of price formations.

The significance of the reversal of peaks and troughs is determined by the duration and amplitude of periods of supports and reactions. For example, if the length of each "support-reaction" wave is in the range of 2 to 3 weeks, then an intermediate trend reversal is observed, since such a trend consists of a series of short-term (2-3 weeks) fluctuations. Likewise, the interruption of a succession of declining intermediate peaks and troughs by a rising peak and trough signals a reversal from a primary bear to a primary bull market.

The dilemma of peaks and troughs

Often the sequence of peaks and troughs takes on a more complex form. For example, following the highest peak, the price falls at point X below the level of the previous fall. At this moment, the series of growing troughs is interrupted, but the sequence of growing peaks has not yet been interrupted. In other words, only half of the signal is received at point X.

A complete reversal signal for both rising peaks and troughs is only obtained at point Y, when the price falls below the level reached earlier at point X.

At point X, however, there is a dilemma, since the trend must still be positive, but the very fact that the sequence of rising bottoms has been interrupted shows the internal weakness of the market. On the one hand, we received only a half signal of a bear market, while, on the other hand, waiting for the moment Y leads to the loss of a significant part of the profits received in the bull market.

To resolve the dilemma, one should turn to a balanced assessment of the current market situation. In this case, a weighted estimate derived from other technical indicators, such as moving averages (MA), sales volume, momentum and market width indicators (which will be discussed below), will show the moment of a trend reversal or prevent a decision to change the nature of the trend if will not validate the peak-and-trough method.

Still, such a signal should be viewed with a certain degree of skepticism until the interruption of both sequences of both rising peaks and rising troughs confirms that a trend reversal has occurred.

Usually, the definition of what is support or reaction is subjective. One approach to solving the problem is to choose an objective criterion: for example, whether the estimated support exceeds 5%. This can lead to rather complex calculations, however, there are software products that allow the user to get the solution instantly in graphical form.

Based on the materials of the book by V. Meladze, "Course of technical analysis",

Technical analysis or technical analysis is one of the important moments of daily trading on forex and stock market.

Despite the fact that the essence of the technical analysis of exchange instruments such as RTS, MICEX comes down to the constant study of financial charts, and finding key points, without taking into account fundamental indicators, the first thing to consider when making trading decisions is the technical component.

Through technical analysis, a trader stock market can understand not only what state the market is in and what trends are supported by its participants, but also predict possible future combinations and patterns. The systematization of this information in the form of indicators and key points on the charts of financial instruments allows for preliminary preparation before making trading decisions and reduces the degree of risk in trading. We also note that such world stock indices as DAX, dow jones index and their charts are good indicators of the mood of exchange participants and can be used in building a trading plan and drawing up technical analysis.

The technical analysis of financial instruments presented in the section will allow you to get an idea of ​​the technical factors on exchanges, and the forex market at the moment.

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In trading in Europe, the dollar holds positions throughout the market. The Australian (-0.45%) and New Zealand (-0.42%) dollars suffered the most losses. In the last hour, the British pound went up. Its growth was 50 points, up to 1.2745. The euro/dollar jumped 15 points to 1.1161. The British currency strengthened on the news that British Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing to speak in Parliament with a new Brexit proposal, which is scheduled for 18:00 Moscow time. The proposal has already been discussed at a cabinet meeting.

21-05-2019, 17:06

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Last Friday, the US finally raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and warned that if a deal is not struck within a month, the remaining imports (about $300 billion) will also be subject to 25% tariffs. China promises retaliatory measures, although it cannot provide a symmetrical response to the States, since it buys many times less from them.
Among the important risk indicators, it is worth noting that AUDUSD and USDJPY remain below 0.70 and 110 respectively, while USDCHF falls for the third trading session in a row.

13-05-2019, 13:35

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On Wednesday, February 27, trading ended with a depreciation of the euro. Buyers failed to pass the wall of sellers at 1.1403. The euro fell against the US dollar to 1.1362. The trend and balance lines acted as supports. The fall was caused by a sharp increase in the yield of 10-year US bonds from 2.631% to 2.6987%. In two hours, growth blocked the 43-hour fall.
The growth of US10Y yield changed the mood of market participants in relation to the US dollar. Against the background of partial closing of long positions, the rate returned to the trend line.

28-02-2019, 10:36

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On Wednesday, February 21, the EURUSD currency pair went sideways, trading in the range of 1.1325-1.1370, while updating local highs since February 6 at the upper limit of this range. On Thursday morning, the flat trend continued on the market, while the pair fell to 1.1330. At the same time, the ascending channel, formed since the end of last week, remains relevant. The immediate upside target remains at 1.1373, a 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous decline. However, on the way to this goal, it is possible to test the lower boundary of the channel.

21-02-2019, 11:55

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On Friday in the first half of the day, the EURUSD pair continued to decline within the descending channel, falling from 1.1294 to 1.1234, while updating the lows since November 13 last year. However, before the American session, the pair reversed sharply, went up and broke through the upper limit of the descending channel that has been prevailing on the market since the end of January, rising to 1.1308 and ending the week near 1.1292.

18-02-2019, 12:02

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On Friday, February 8, the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, which has been going on since January 31, continued. Trading in the pair began on the last day of last week at 1.1340. During the day, the pair rose to 1.1350, but the "bears" took over, and by the close of trading the quotes dropped to 1.1320. The euro was falling against the backdrop of good fundamental news from the region.

11-02-2019, 16:35

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A barrel of Brent on Monday, February 11, was trading near 61.50 USD and falling in price, although on Friday the bulls were in the majority. The number of drilling rigs in the United States for the week by February 8 increased by 4 units to the level of 1049 units. In Canada, the same figure decreased by 3 units and amounted to 240 units. After the release of these indicators from Baker Hughes last Friday, oil prices continued to rise cautiously, although they should have been declining - after all, the indicator is quite bearish.

11-02-2019, 16:16

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Friday's statistics from the US was enough. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in January against the December value of 3.9%. Revision, by the way, was not predicted. Average hourly wages increased only 0.1% mom last month, versus a robust 0.4% m/m growth in December and earlier in fall 2018. The annual wage growth rate is thus estimated at 3.2%.